The Jack Hershey Public Record Thread

Hello Jack,

Can you give your comment on those pages (overvalued/undervalued)?I don't have Harris book in place.Hour hand at 4 doesn't look like a side drift,btw.It more looks like a down sloped.From what I've observed,the over/undervalued points could be found on a higher timeframe.

 

Jack,

please note that there are many people around on ET, who do appreciate your selfless sharing and wise, amazing insights regarding trading and markets.
Carry on with your comments.

Ivo

 

From the Google search i found a set of posts regarding 'four o`clock drift' by Grob109 in this thread:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/printthread.php?threadid=75715

And it`s said there,that 'four o`clock drift' is a high risk sidelining.I wonder why.I thought that over/undervalued extreems were more risky,and hard to predict.To me, a 'four o`clock drift' is risky in a way,if i`m somehow already in the position.It could be risky from there,as the market may decide to move one-opposite way without getting back.May be i should avoid it entierly.Any thoughts?

 

Yes: "There is No risk involved in trading. NO prediction. NO anomalies. You ALWAYS know where you are in the order of events. You always know what must come next because you do MADA instead of OODA. And if not you always have your bookmarks ready. You log, you annotate, you degap, you debrief, you wait, you use at least one of the 12 leading indicators of price, you hit T, you do wash trades. You continuously double your acount and sweep excess money into PVT and SSR trading accounts and then use that money to help solve local issues. You feel comfort, support and confidence instead of fear, stress and other feelings associated with prediction and risk management type trading."

That was from the top of my head. Jack, I read it now so many times that if one day you can't post anymore I could post on your behalve and nobody would notice the difference.

 

Pekelo I don't know what you are looking at ... try S&P 500 for year 2013

The only problem is that "Jack's Public Record" is hindsight, and the real time calls were losing or breakeven at best ... (losing big if his commission and fees are $800 for two trades ... )

 

Damn, you are right, I mixed the dates up a bit. What is a little confusion in a JH thread anyway? My apologizes to Jack, so let's look at the correct dates:



On the 17th long, in the given timeframe the market was going down so a long was a loser.

On the 18th he was correct, the market was falling in the first 10 minutes.

These 2 trades just about cancel each other

The prediction for Friday was also good. If he was long in the usual timeframe he could have made 2-3 points.

So the gain for these 3 posted trades/prediction is about 2-3 ES points...

 

So, sorry, what have I missed?

Let's say Jack can get 2-3 points in the first 10 minutes. At 10 contracts, this means he can walk away with whatever part of his algorithm does this, or he can let it ride, which is what he always does.

This means his claim of 3x the daily average might be true if the account were small enough.

In pairs trades, I haven't lost in 9 months on 10 trades for over 30% annualized.

This sounds easier than worrying about technical malfunctions so common to the Hersheyites.

 

I remember Jack from usenet forums in the 90-ies.

He was quite a riot back then, and it does not look like things have changed. His stuff is definitely for those who have plenty of time.

Just my two cents.

 

I agree, but it is raining outside and I am bored. So what is the consensus, after 1 month of trying, did Jack establish a credible public record of his trading ability or not? I say not, but I am open to reconsider if I see a weekly or monthly statement, preferably with Jack's name on it...
At this point we would happily take a TST or C2 record....