The insanity of European property markets

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Ghost of Cutten, Nov 25, 2010.

  1. I agree with Cutten, it's going to be a carnage
     
    #41     Nov 26, 2010
  2. Spain is a real problem and so are Spanish govt's economic statistics.
     
    #42     Nov 26, 2010
  3. Yes interest rates affect things, but rates can hardly go lower, so there is no real scope to pump up prices there. In fact, government actions at the moment are if anything hostile to property prices, because the politicians are cutting spending and about to cut it even more brutally.

    Not collecting debts will simply mean the loss occurs in the banks rather than the public. The banks are not exactly financially sound, so giving payment holidays will just make them more likely to go bust. And they still have to repossess eventually - delaying just means they will get a lower price in 1, 2 or 3 years, and have to finance the cash shortfall in the meantime, it's a bear point not a bull point if the banks hold on to defaulted property.

    The UK being so exposed to property is exactly why I think the pound is a short.
     
    #43     Nov 26, 2010
  4. Asia and Australia, for the moment at least, have economies that are rolling along ok. And only Australia (and maybe a tiny fraction of China) is a true bubble, places like HK have only just recovered back to their highs from 13 years ago. The EU has economies that are on the brink of collapse. Big difference.
     
    #44     Nov 26, 2010
  5. With gold's poor performance in the face of further Korean tensions today and the last couple of days, I have to say that gold looks like it could trade down in the next week or two. Maybe $1300 or 1275, a moderate correction. So I am hedging my gold with some short futures. In case I'm wrong, I have a buy back stop a little above the recent highs.
     
    #45     Nov 26, 2010
  6. Banjo

    Banjo

  7. syrre

    syrre

    Found the one I was thinking of, bear in mind this is old 'news'.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/Spanish_GDP_report.pdf

    I dont have much knowledge to Spain, but there are some things here I think looks strange. Unemployment tanking while rising GDP?

    Also, IMF estimates for Spain in 2011 and 2012 looks kinda funny.
    http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft...PC,NGDPPC,NGDPDPC,PPPGDP,PPPPC,PPPSH&grp=0&a=

    Other reads i find interesting:
    S&P
    http://www.eleconomista.es/imag/_v2/documentos/construction_sector_s&p.pdf
    Dagong:
    http://www.dagongcredit.com/dagongweb/uf/Sovereign Credit Rating Report of 50 Countries in 2010.pdf
    Spiegel ("photo" gallery):
    http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-54629.html
     
    #47     Nov 26, 2010
  8. Picaso

    Picaso

    Haven't heard about this in Spain, do you have a link/source? Thanks

    [What I've read about is banks taking possession of developers' unsold properties and renting them out with a purchase option (i.e. have a 5-year window in which the tenant can decide to purchase the property and have the money paid in rent deducted from the property price). This was common in the 90's too.]
     
    #48     Nov 26, 2010
  9. Picaso

    Picaso

    I guess you mean "employment" tanking :)

    Isn't that the case in the US as well? Record corporate profits while workers take it in the... ahem, chin?
     
    #49     Nov 26, 2010
  10. syrre

    syrre

    :) ofc, I rewrote that sentence, obv not good enuff. And eng. is not my language :)
     
    #50     Nov 26, 2010