. . .system equity. Initial Balance: $160,000 Model Account Details: Open $21,852 Closed $3,355 <b>$25,207</b> Opened ET B/S # Symbol Price Closed Current Price P/L 12/7/10 9:31 BUY 6 @NQH1 2212.00 0 2394.25 $21,852 Initial Balance: $25,000 Model Account Details: Open $4,081 Closed ($1,019) <b>$3,061</b> Opened ET B/S # Symbol Price Closed Current Price P/L 12/15/10 9:30 BUY 297 QLD 80.88 0 94.63 $4,081 Open, Closed & P/L include commissions. Bold amounts are total gains. System designed for minimal trades to capture trends, appropriate leverage, small commissions & slippage, contained drawdown - while maximizing annual return. Is a long-term trading method.
I like to read the free preview, the latest of which is http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-nears-major-league-technical-test-2011-02-15 - of The Technical Indicator, by Michael Ashbaugh, MarketWatch. It couples well with Investor's Business Daily's "The Big Picture" analysis of the market. I know relevance is low (especially with the current market malaise), but here are recent notes I've taken from the T.I. in past weeks (current to consecutively later weeks): The Technical Indicator - The Nasdaq's 10-year range top of 2,861 represents an intermediate-term target. This holds roughly 1.6% above this week's high. So looking ahead, the Nasdaq is likely setting up for a significant technical test in the upcoming weeks. The next question is its response to resistance. Namely, is the current approach viewed as a once-in-a-decade selling opportunity, or does the index break free, leaving it with limited overhead? Against this backdrop, the technical landscape remains constructive, but it's the Nasdaq that's approaching the next major technical test. From current levels, initial support holds at 1,325, and is followed by a more significant floor at 1,313. On this wider view, significant support holds at 1,313 matching the August 2008 peak. Looking ahead, initial support holds around 12,240, and is followed by a deeper floor at 12,150. From current levels, its first notable support point holds at 12,020, and is followed by a more significant floor around 11,867, matching the August 2008 peak. From current levels, initial support holds just under the 2,800 mark, and is followed by a more significant floor around 2,766. The slight breakout places it within view of its 2,861 longer-term target, matching a 10-year range top detailed in the next section. The bigger picture As detailed above, the U.S. markets have broken to yet another multiyear high. And to restate the obvious, each benchmark's uptrend is defined by its 20-day moving average. Support falls out as follows: * S&P support at its 20-day moving average, currently 1,307. * Dow support at its 20-day moving average of 12,064. * Nasdaq support at its 20-day, currently 2,762. (This level matches last week's low.) Barring a violation of these support points, market bulls have the green light. - - The Technical Indicator - S&P 500 breaks from major resistance Each major U.S. benchmark has knifed to multiyear highs this week. In the process, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has edged atop significant resistance at 1,313, opening the path to potentially meaningful longer-term gains. From current levels, significant support spans from 1,308 to 1,313, an area matching the August 2008 peak, and represents the origin of the market crash. 12092 (modest support), 12020 (secondary floor) 2766 (notable support) Longer-term target rests at 2,860, matching a 10-year range top. Barring a violation of the 20-day, all trends technically point higher, and the S&P's longer-term upside could be significant on a sustained break atop the 1,313 target. - - The Technical Indicator - Resistance: 1296, then 1302 - 12,020 - 2763-66 S&P support at its 20-day moving average, currently 1,281 On this wider view, significant resistance spans from 1,302 to 1,313, an area bracketing the January peak and the August 2008 high. Namely, the S&P 500 remains within a strong uptrend -- it's absorbed two sharp downdrafts in as many weeks -- though the index is hesitating at significant resistance. As illustrated, the index has risen within view of the 1,313 target, a level matching the August 2008 peak. Looking ahead, a violation of support would resolve a mini double top, likely signaling a more pronounced consolidation phase. Yet barring a breakdown, its path of least technically points higher, and the January peak marks its next significant technical hurdle. - - The Technical Indicator - Nasdaq on defensive, Dow offensive. resistance: 1296 then 1313 support: 11905 then 11850 resistance: 2722 support: 2686 2675: 2010 peak Barring a violation of support in the 1,262-to-1,275 area, the S&P's uptrend is firmly intact. - - The Technical Indicator - Time will tell, but the current backdrop favors market bulls. Very simply, the S&P remains within a strong uptrend that tracks comfortably above its 20-day moving average. Barring a violation of the 20-day -- which currently holds at 1,268 -- market bulls are on the offensive. 1286, then 1278 - successfully retested 1262 (2010 peak). So from a technical standpoint, hesitation at the 1,313 (2008 peak) resistance wouldn't be surprising, but ultimately, it's the response to resistance that matters. Namely, can the S&P hold tightly to resistance -- setting the stage for an eventual break higher -- or does it fail the test, resulting in a May 2010, flash-crash-like downdraft 11782 (weak), then 11742 (early-JAN peak) Looking ahead, an upside target holds at 11,867, an area matching the August 2008 peak. 2742 (modest), then 2722 key: 2675 (2010 peak, With these areas detailed, the index remains within a strong uptrend barring a violation of the 2010 peak.) - major resistance 2860 (10-yr peak) - - The Technical Indicator - 1262-1278 11625-11710 2675 (or support band: 2663-2675) S&P 500's next intermediate-term target rests at 1,313, matching the August 2008 peak. "After breaking out to start 2011, the U.S. markets have virtually flatlined." "This week's successful retest of support keeps market bulls on the offensive." "...each major benchmark remains within a strong uptrend." the TI - - The Technical Indicator - 1278 (first support) 1262 should draw buyers. (1252), 1246. Flash-crash trigger: 1219 Cleared 1220-1227: violation of 1227 would raise first significant caution flag. 11625 should draw buyers, (11519), 11450 2675 should draw buyers, (2645, 2613), 2592 Helpful and/or spot on analysis?
FYI - http://www.marketwatch.com/story/staking-out-the-bullbear-battleground-2011-02-22 is the latest column from which the following notes were taken: The Technical Indicator - Nasdaq support at the January peak of 2,766. If Tuesday's downturn results in a strong-volume, meltdown-like session, a longer, and deeper, consolidation phase is likely in order. This would mark a failed test of obviously major resistance. Moving to the downside test, market bears would like to see the S&P 500 (SPY 131.57, -2.96, -2.20%) violate the following near-term support points: S&P support at its 20-day moving average, currently 1,318. S&P support at 1,313, matching the August 2008 peak. A violation of this band would raise the flag to a near-term trend shift, opening the path to a deeper pullback.
Futures System Update As most already know, IBD issued the "market in correction" call on 07-MAR-2011. Per my system rules - at the open on 08-MAR-2011 - our profitable LONG position was closed and a subsequent SHORT position has been initiated. PLEASE NOTE: Collective2.com, which is independently tracking all of my trades, has allowed for me to "rescale" my system equity. As previously outlined in my system description - "Once current trade is closed, system equity will be scaled back ~1/3. Accordingly, scale contracts to your exposure level.", with the the most recent trade close we've effectively rescaled downward by 38%. From C2: "rescale" (adjust downward) the amount of cash in his trading system by 38%. By decreasing the amount of capital in the C2 model account, this will allow the system to place smaller trade sizes, and still achieve the same return on equity as a percentage of account size. It's important to remember that when we adjust the trading system, we will be adjusting the historical trade quantities recommended." "This does not change the historical performance of the system, since all performance is based on percentage gains or losses. (Note that, in order to keep the math accurate, we will allow fractional shares of stock, futures contracts, to appear in the historical record.)" So as you can see, equity as compared to the S&P 500 is updated and proportionally displayed. Also, monthly returns aren't affected. Closed trade positions are now in fractions, however going forward (until possible next "rescale") will be show whole contracts. Also note, these closed P/L do include subtracted commissions. Thank you for following "The IBD Experiment".
Moving along to my ETF "trend-following" system, it displays with no "rescale" - Trading QID and QLD, LONG only, allows for you to trade a smaller account with proportionate exposure to my futures system.
Answer to question - wrote: what is the min $$ that one would need to start an account with for one of your systems? answer: Thank you for your interest and really good question. My FUTURES system trades NASDAQ-100 e-mini contracts. Margin requirements vary for different brokers, but overnight rates WILL apply as trades are typically held for weeks. With my FUTURES system, once a signal is generated, our trades are rounded to the nearest contract that may be more or less than the exposure/leverage level that the signal generates*. The Model account has currently ~$110,000 in equity. To fully participate both LONG and SHORT with a smaller account you will need to "scale" - a feature provided by Collective2 and simple to implement. Currently, with our SHORT contract exposure at 3 contracts - to maintain my system level of leverage using 1 contract -- figure 110k/3 or approximately a $36.66k account. My stock (ETF) system - that trades ULTRA ProShares QQQ (QLD and QID) - can more accurately correlate with my system signal exposure/leverage amounts*, since we can trade in one-share increments. The Model account has currently $26,500 and this amount or a much less amount can be easily auto-traded, by a simple adjust in "scale". With QID ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) currently quoted at $52.42 and QLD ProShares Ultra QQQ (ETF) now quoted at $87.70 -- one could theoretically and practically fully trade this system with just a few hundred dollars! That being said, $500 or a few thousand dollars may be a good way to start -- with the intent to add more trading dollars over time. I hope this helps to answer your questions. *Both systems are 100% mechanical and are designed to reflect very similar performances over multi-month periods.)
KC's "The IBD Experiment": the "final wraps" Now that I've been trading/chronicling for 6 months my futures & ETF systems - I just did a back-test, using my final rules, to compare with 3 years of C2 trades in both system categories. Here are my FUTURES system results - 3-year return: <b>184%</b> (max) drawdown: <b>27.5%</b> average annual return: <b>44%</b> Number of trades: <b>32</b> Winners: <b>17</b> Losers: <b>15</b> Win %: <b>53%</b> and corresponding graph: See - http://img821.imageshack.us/img821/4358/kcvsmrmarket2.jpg or http://bit.ly/h2wYUB <b>Note:</b> "back-test" is in accordance with C2 traded "forward-test" What am I doing (differently) to make this a Long-Term Successful Trading System? (see profile for more info) Now that the final wraps have been taken, for 6 months, off this "long-term successful strategy" -- I decided to now back-test my final rules over the last 3 years and compare it to my long running (forward-tested) C2 systems using FUTURES & STOCKS (ETF) and include my new 6-month system results. See graph - which includes 3 years of C2 trades, back-test trade list and current system trade list. <b>NOTE:</b> current "swing" signals contain ONE trade per market shift - sharply limiting the amount of system trades. Also note that my STOCKS (ETF) system is traded identical to my FUTURES system, yet with with more exact adherence to computed allocation schedule (NQ contracts have to be rounded). Note too that my long-term FUTURES system commissions were more than my long-term STOCKS (ETF) system and are not shown in chart and additionally note STOCKS (ETF) system gains from first trade, as shown in chart, has been significantly reduced (by 63%) to appropriately compare equity amongst other curves. Easily seen is that first year gains were over-leveraged, while second and third year was under-leveraged - with increased drawdown from high mainly due to testing various trading methods (resulting in over-trading). <b>I now use a strict leverage (correlated to overall market volatility) and trading plan.</b> In hindsight...I went too conservative in the latter stages - looking for a complete "correction" washout (before re-investing vigorously with funds). My max drawdown <i>was</i> considerably less, yet I paid dearly as the market rebounded off lows. We essentially stopped the 2-year STOCKS (ETF) and 2.5-year FUTURES trading systems in SEP 2010 - to now only trade my new systems chronicled in this thread...and did nicely capture the subsequent multi-month rally! <b>Now I stick too a strict - 100% mechanical - allocation schedule as can be seen in my back-test and from my current trade list.</b> Historical - I started my prior FUTURES system on 02-MAR-2008 and traded it (2 yrs. 10 mos.) until 30-DEC-2010. For more historical info please visit "My Successful, Long-Term E-mini Trading System": (see profile for more info) I started my prior STOCKS (ETF) system on 30-SEP-2008 and traded it (2 yrs. 3 months) until 12-JAN-2011. For more historical info please visit "My Successful, Long-Term E-mini Trading System": (see profile for more info) It, too, is based on the same price & volume "trend-following" signals provided by Investor's Business Daily (IBD). It proved to truly be a long-term system (a rarity on C2) since out of 1000's of futures systems tracked by C2 - it remains one of just 8 that remain profitable. See the Grid (sort by "Futures" & Age>=1095 days). Also see that my ETF system ranks, by annual return, 13th of just 27 (of 1000's) profitable C2 stock systems traded >2.5 years. See the Grid (sort by "Stocks" & Age>=915 days). Everything did not go right, however, as I used the system to test a variety of secondary theories (that mostly added a significant number of trades) I finally was able to create my final system version(s). Please note: "The IBD Experiment" has worked quite well throughout much market malaise. This includes averting losses and shifting to gains with the sudden 50% 2008 market drop, capturing the 2009 "bottom", carefully navigating the ominous "Flash-Crash" wreckage to finally tracking really good, during the last 180 days uptrend -- that contains some wild swings/calls along with some frothy index moves. Key System Points: - streamlined number of annual trades - tracks trends - both up and down - signals back-tested for more than 100 years: http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAna...gh-Signals-New-Market-Uptrend.htm?src=HPLNews - signals personally tracked, before C2, for more than 10 years (covered call website) - signals forward-tested, for more than 3 years, at C2 - uses market orders at 9:30 am EST - appropriate leverage ALWAYS used - proven long-term success that compounds a high annual average - contained (max) drawdown - good calmar ratio. - affordable trading costs <b>VERY IMPORTANT:</b> A truly successful long-term trading system that compounds a high annual average and contains drawdown periods <i>-- will grow your funds most expeditiously.</i> Back-Test - Some have requested a back-test, which I am producing (for 3 years futures system starting 20-MAR-2008)...using NASDAQ-100 (NDX) Year 1 data points: 20-MAR-2008 (close): $100,000.00 CASH 24-MAR-2008 (open): $100,000.00 LONG 22-MAY-2008 (open): $116,185.60 SHORT 30-JUL-2008 (open): $122,915.80 LONG 04-SEP-2008 (open): $118,606.60 SHORT 25-SEP-2008 (open): $127,250.20 LONG 30-SEP-2008 (open): $111,057.40 SHORT 16-OCT-2008 (open): $128,115.40 LONG 21-OCT-2008 (open): $135,454.40 SHORT 28-OCT-2008 (open): $142,628.60 LONG 12-NOV-2008 (open): $141,924.20 SHORT 02-DEC-2008 (open): $147,574.40 LONG 12-JAN-2009 (open): $163,692.60 SHORT 28-JAN-2009 (open): $164,369.40 LONG 18-FEB-2009 (open): $161,576.40 SHORT 13-MAR-2009 (open): $163,437.00 LONG 23-MAR-2009 (close): $177,007.20 (STILL) LONG Annual Return: 77% Max Drawdown: 22% (25-SEP-2009 to 30-SEP-2008) NASDAQ-100 20-MAR-2008 (close): 1,751.99 23-MAR-2009 (close): 1,259.81 (28%) NASDAQ 20-MAR-2008 (close): 2,258.11 23-MAR-2009 (close): 1,555.77 (31%) S&P 500 20-MAR-2008 (close): 1,329.51 23-MAR-2009 (close): 822.92 (38%) -- -- Year 2 data points: 23-MAR-2009 (close): $177,007.20 (STILL) LONG 11-MAY-2009 (open): $193,140.80 LONG 15-JUL-2009 (open): $206,936.40 LONG 18-AUG-2009 (open): $220,898.60 SHORT 24-AUG-2009 (open): $211,360.40 LONG 28-OCT-2009 (open): $229,911.40 SHORT 10-NOV-2009 (open): $221,476.20 LONG 25-JAN-2010 (open): $232,157.20 SHORT 02-MAR-2010 (open): $226,734.40 LONG 23-MAR-2010 (close): $257,157.40 (STILL) LONG -- 23-MAR-2009 (close): $177,007.20 23-MAR-2010 (close): $257,157.40 Annual Return: 45% Max Drawdown: 4% (18-AUG-2009 to 24-AUG-2009) NASDAQ-100 23-MAR-2009 (close): 1,259.81 23-MAR-2010 (close): 1,963.20 56% NASDAQ 23-MAR-2009 (close): 1,555.77 23-MAR-2010 (close): 2,415.24 55% S&P 500 23-MAR-2009 (close): 822.92 23-MAR-2010 (close): 1,174.17 43% -- -- Year 3 data points: 23-MAR-2010 (close): $257,157.40 (STILL) LONG 05-MAY-2010 (open): $255,402.40 SHORT 03-JUN-2010 (open): $264,376.40 LONG 08-JUN-2010 (open): $245,898.60 SHORT 16-JUN-2010 (open): $236,698.60 LONG 30-JUN-2010 (open): $213,428.20 SHORT 08-JUL-2010 (open): $209,471.20 LONG 25-AUG-2010 (open): $202,474.60 SHORT 02-SEP-2010 (open): $195,256.60 LONG 17-NOV-2010 (open): $254,852.40 SHORT 03-DEC-2010 (open): $244,845.60 LONG 08-MAR-2011 (open): $277,410.00 SHORT 23-MAR-2011 (close): $283,965.60 (STILL) SHORT -- 23-MAR-2010 (close): $257,157.40 23-MAR-2011 (close): $283,965.60 Annual Return: 10.42% Max Drawdown: 27.5% (03-JUN-2010 to 02-SEP-2010) NASDAQ-100 23-MAR-2010 (close): 1,963.20 23-MAR-2011 (close): 2,270.50 16% NASDAQ 23-MAR-2010 (close): 2,415.24 23-MAR-2011 (close): 2,698.30 12% S&P 500 23-MAR-2010 (close): 1,174.17 23-MAR-2011 (close): 1,297.54 11% - -
3-year data point (FUTURES) signal breakdown: - 20-MAR-2008: Uptrend Vix: 26.62 24-MAR-2008 NDX (open): 1,760.14 use 1.5X $100,000 LONG 4NQ contracts. -- 21-MAY-2008: Correction Vix: 18.59 22-MAY-2008 NDX (open): 1,962.46 use 1.0X $116,185.60 SHORT 3NQ contracts. -- 29-JUL-2008: Uptrend Vix: 22.03 30-JUL-2008 NDX (open): 1,850.29 use 2.0X $122,915.80 LONG 7NQ contracts. -- 03-SEP-2008: Correction Vix: 21.43 04-SEP-2008 NDX (open): 1,819.51 use 1.0X $118,606.60 SHORT 3NQ contracts. -- 24-SEP-2008: Uptrend Vix: 35.19 25-SEP-2008 NDX (open): 1,675.45 use 1.5X $127,250.20 LONG 6NQ contracts. -- 26-SEP-2008: Correction Vix: 34.74 30-SEP-2008 NDX (open): 1,540.51 use 0.75X $111,057.40 SHORT 3NQ contracts. -- 15-OCT-2008: Uptrend Vix: 69.25 16-OCT-2008 NDX (open): 1,256.21 use 1.0X $128,115.40 LONG 5NQ contracts. -- 20-OCT-2008: Correction Vix: 52.97 21-OCT-2008 NDX (open): 1,329.60 use 0.50X $135,454.40 SHORT 3NQ contracts. -- 27-OCT-2008: Uptrend Vix: 80.06 28-OCT-2008 NDX (open): 1,210.03 use 1.0X $142,628.60 LONG 6NQ contracts. -- 11-NOV-2008: Correction Vix: 61.44 12-NOV-2008 NDX (open): 1,204.16 use 0.5X $141,924.20 SHORT 3NQ contracts. -- 01-DEC-2008: Uptrend Vix: 68.51 02-DEC-2008 NDX (open): 1,109.99 use 1.0X $147,574.40 LONG 7NQ contracts. -- 09-JAN-2009: Correction Vix: 42.85 12-JAN-2009 NDX (open): 1,225.12 use 0.5X $163,692.60 SHORT 3NQ contracts. -- 27-JAN-2009: Uptrend Vix: 42.25 28-JAN-2009 NDX (open): 1,213.84 use 1.0X $164,369.40 LONG 7NQ contracts. -- 17-FEB-2009: Correction Vix: 48.66 18-FEB-2009 NDX (open): 1,193.89 use 0.5X $161,576.40 SHORT 3NQ contracts. -- 12-MAR-2009: Uptrend Vix: 41.18 13-MAR-2009 NDX (open): 1,162.88 use 1.0X $163,437 LONG 7NQ contracts. -- 23-MAR-2009: (still) Uptrend Vix: 43.23 23-MAR-2009 NDX (close): 1,259.81 (still) use 1.0X $177,007.20 (still) LONG 7NQ contracts. -- 11-MAY-2009: (still) Uptrend NDX (open): 1,375.05 (still) use 1.0X $193,140.80 (still) LONG 7NQ contracts. -- 15-JUL-2009: (still) Uptrend NDX (open): 1,473.59 (still) use 1.0X $206,936.40 (still) LONG 7NQ contracts. -- 17-AUG-2009: Correction Vix: 27.89 18-AUG-2009 NDX (open): 1,573.32 use 1.0X $220,898.60 SHORT 7NQ contracts. -- 21-AUG-2009: Uptrend Vix: 25.01 24-AUG-2009 NDX (open): 1,641.45 use 2.0X $211,360.40 LONG 13NQ contracts. -- 27-OCT-2009: Correction Vix: 24.83 28-OCT-2009 NDX (open): 1,712.80 use 1.0X $229,911.40 SHORT 8NQ contracts. -- 09-NOV-2009: Uptrend Vix: 23.15 10-NOV-2009 NDX (open): 1,765.52 use 2.0X $221,476.20 LONG 13NQ contracts. -- 22-JAN-2010: Correction Vix: 27.31 25-JAN-2010 NDX (open): 1,806.60 use 1.0X $232,157.20 SHORT 6NQ contracts. -- 01-MAR-2010: Uptrend Vix: 19.26 02-MAR-2010 NDX (open): 1,851.79 use 2.5X $226,734.40 LONG 15NQ contracts. -- 23-MAR-2010: (still) Uptrend Vix: 16.35 23-MAR-2010 NDX (close): 1,963.20 (still) use 2.5X $257,157.40 (still) LONG 15NQ contracts. -- 04-MAY-2010: Correction Vix: 23.84 05-MAY-2010 NDX (open): 1,947.35 use 1.0X $255,402.40 SHORT 7NQ contracts. -- 02-JUN-2010: Uptrend Vix: 30.17 03-JUN-2010 NDX (open): 1,883.25 use 1.5X $264,376.40 LONG 11NQ contracts. -- 07-JUN-2010: Correction Vix: 36.57 08-JUN-2010 NDX (open): 1,799.26 use 0.75X $245,898.60 SHORT 5NQ contracts. -- 15-JUN-2010: Uptrend Vix: 25.87 16-JUN-2010 NDX (open): 1,891.26 use 1.5X $236,698.60 LONG 9NQ contracts. -- 29-JUN-2010: Correction Vix: 34.13 30-JUN-2010 NDX (open): 1,761.98 use 0.75X $213,428.20 SHORT 5NQ contracts. -- 07-JUL-2010: Uptrend Vix: 29.65 08-JUL-2010 NDX (open): 1,801.55 use 1.5X $209,471.20 LONG 9NQ contracts. -- 24-AUG-2010: Correction Vix: 29.65 25-AUG-2010 NDX (open): 1,762.68 use 1.0X $202,474.60 SHORT 6NQ contracts. -- 01-SEP-2010: Uptrend Vix: 23.89 02-SEP-2010 NDX (open): 1,822.83 use 2.0X $195,256.60 LONG 11NQ contracts. -- 16-NOV-2010: Correction Vix: 22.58 17-NOV-2010 NDX (open): 2,093.72 use 1.0X $254,852.40 SHORT 6NQ contracts. -- 02-DEC-2010: Uptrend Vix: 19.39 03-DEC-2010 NDX (open): 2,177.11 use 2.0X $244,845.60 LONG 11NQ contracts. -- 07-MAR-2011: Correction Vix: 20.66 08-MAR-2011 NDX (open): 2,325.13 use 1.0X $277,410.00 SHORT 6NQ contracts. -- 23-MAR-2011: (still) Correction Vix: 19.17 23-MAR-2011 NDX (close): 2,270.50 (still) use 1.0X $283,965.60 (still) SHORT 6NQ contracts. -- -- Current signal: 29-MAR-2011: Uptrend Vix: 18.16 30-MAR-2011 NDX (open): 2,338.41 use 2.0X $275,816.40 LONG 12NQ contracts. --
Here are my STOCKS (ETF) system results - 3-year return: <b>142%</b> (max) drawdown: <b>31%</b> average annual return: <b>37%</b> Number of trades: <b>32</b> Winners: <b>16</b> Losers: <b>16</b> Win %: <b>50%</b> Back-Test - Some have requested a back-test, which I am producing (for 3 years ETF system starting 20-MAR-2008)...trades ULTRA ProShares QQQ: QLD and QID. Year 1 data points: 20-MAR-2008 (close): $25,000.00 CASH 24-MAR-2008 (open): $25,000.00 LONG QLD 22-MAY-2008 (open): $29,232.32 LONG QID 30-JUL-2008 (open): $30,611.88 LONG QLD 04-SEP-2008 (open): $29,565.21 LONG QID 25-SEP-2008 (open): $31,683.61 LONG QLD 30-SEP-2008 (open): $27,541.28 LONG QID 16-OCT-2008 (open): $30,925.78 LONG QLD 21-OCT-2008 (open): $32,671.00 LONG QID 28-OCT-2008 (open): $34,201.34 LONG QLD 12-NOV-2008 (open): $33,850.29 LONG QID 02-DEC-2008 (open): $34,493.79 LONG QLD 12-JAN-2009 (open): $37,882.23 LONG QID 28-JAN-2009 (open): $37,863.42 LONG QLD 18-FEB-2009 (open): $37,206.84 LONG QID 13-MAR-2009 (open): $37,302.60 LONG QLD 23-MAR-2009 (close): $38,863.67 (STILL) LONG QLD Annual Return: 55.5% Max Drawdown: 13% (25-SEP-2009 to 30-SEP-2008) NASDAQ-100 20-MAR-2008 (close): 1,751.99 23-MAR-2009 (close): 1,259.81 (28%) NASDAQ 20-MAR-2008 (close): 2,258.11 23-MAR-2009 (close): 1,555.77 (31%) S&P 500 20-MAR-2008 (close): 1,329.51 23-MAR-2009 (close): 822.92 (38%) -- -- Year 2 data points: 23-MAR-2009 (close): $38,863.67 (STILL) LONG QLD 11-MAY-2009 (open): $44,092.87 LONG QLD 15-JUL-2009 (open): $47,807.14 LONG QLD 18-AUG-2009 (open): $50,914.80 LONG QID 24-AUG-2009 (open): $48,847.05 LONG QLD 28-OCT-2009 (open): $53,168.93 LONG QID 10-NOV-2009 (open): $51,427.43 LONG QLD 25-JAN-2010 (open): $53,470.10 LONG QID 02-MAR-2010 (open): $51,843.84 LONG QLD 23-MAR-2010 (close): $59,861.91 (STILL) LONG QLD -- 23-MAR-2009 (close): $38,863.67 23-MAR-2010 (close): $59,861.91 Annual Return: 54% Max Drawdown: 4% (18-AUG-2009 to 24-AUG-2009) NASDAQ-100 23-MAR-2009 (close): 1,259.81 23-MAR-2010 (close): 1,963.20 56% NASDAQ 23-MAR-2009 (close): 1,555.77 23-MAR-2010 (close): 2,415.24 55% S&P 500 23-MAR-2009 (close): 822.92 23-MAR-2010 (close): 1,174.17 43% -- -- Year 3 data points: 23-MAR-2010 (close): $59,861.91 (STILL) LONG QLD 05-MAY-2010 (open): $58,619.83 LONG QID 03-JUN-2010 (open): $59,704.83 LONG QLD 08-JUN-2010 (open): $55,832.50 LONG QID 16-JUN-2010 (open): $53,795.62 LONG QLD 30-JUN-2010 (open): $48,278.50 LONG QID 08-JUL-2010 (open): $47,344.25 LONG QLD 25-AUG-2010 (open): $42,673.57 LONG QID 02-SEP-2010 (open): $41,172.77 LONG QLD 17-NOV-2010 (open): $54,197.93 LONG QID 03-DEC-2010 (open): $52,059.69 LONG QLD 08-MAR-2011 (open): $59,115.34 LONG QID 23-MAR-2011 (close): $60,364.94 (STILL) LONG QID -- 23-MAR-2010 (close): $59,861.91 23-MAR-2011 (close): $60,364.94 Annual Return: 0.84% Max Drawdown: 31% (23-MAY-2010 to 02-SEP-2010) NASDAQ-100 23-MAR-2010 (close): 1,963.20 23-MAR-2011 (close): 2,270.50 16% NASDAQ 23-MAR-2010 (close): 2,415.24 23-MAR-2011 (close): 2,698.30 12% S&P 500 23-MAR-2010 (close): 1,174.17 23-MAR-2011 (close): 1,297.54 11% - -