The hunt for crisis alpha

Discussion in 'Trading' started by globalarbtrader, Mar 19, 2020.

  1. I did very well but I can’t share unfortunately. There are a lot of little opportunities around at the moment.
     
    #11     Mar 19, 2020
    trader99 likes this.
  2. To be clear I wasn't thinking about the arb which is definitely institutional only, more like a market making strategy. Spreads on some ETFs have been very wide. This is driven by NAV uncertainty, but it isn't technically the discount you are buying since you don't arb against the underlying. For example I have an EM bonds ETF which had a bid-ask that was 80-90 for a long period of time.

    GAT
     
    #12     Mar 19, 2020
  3. "Little" as in not worth it for a fund? If so, any crumbs you want to throw out for the retail dregs to fight over? PM is also fine haha
     
    #13     Mar 19, 2020
  4. You have to find them yourself, otherwise it's cheating!
     
    #14     Mar 20, 2020
    trader99 likes this.
  5. TheBigShort

    TheBigShort

    I'll share two that have worked for me thus far. Maybe it will get @Same Lazy Element to be more generous :D

    When the ES hits the circuit breaker overnight, place an order to sell the same day expiration (if there are any) puts 20% below the previous close. Trading stops for the day after the 20% level. Your only risk is marked to market losses so don't go crazy.

    The first time I did this I got filled at $5 on the ES and they quickly went to near 0 within an hour. I had orders in on SPY, SPX, and ES before the open.

    That being said the most recent halt there was no bid for the puts.

    Another trade that has been looking good is long the Vix futures (front months) and long ES. The roll-up has been huge the past weeks. A quick and dirty way to see this is plotting the VXX returns vs SPY over the past month.
    two.PNG
    one.PNG

    What we see is if we ratio the trade correctly SPY Beta being 2.7 vs VXX we would do very well. There have even been a few days where VXX was up and SPY was up. I think at one point the VIX front month was 25 points below Spot with only a few days to expiration.
     
    #15     Mar 20, 2020
  6. traider

    traider

    Option holder will choose to exercise if it hits the 20% limit unless it's cash settled. I know I would.
     
    #16     Mar 20, 2020
  7. TheBigShort

    TheBigShort

    You sell the put below the 20% circuit breaker. Why would you exercise? It would have 0 intrinsic value.
     
    #17     Mar 20, 2020
  8. traider

    traider

    Because you estimate the fair value of the underlying to be way below the 20%. Just because the price is limited by circuit breaker doesn't mean that the fair value isn't moving.
     
    #18     Mar 20, 2020
  9. TheBigShort

    TheBigShort

    That's not very smart. You would lose all your extrinsic value if you exercised your option.

    However, maybe I was not clear. You sell the same day expiration option. After a 20% drop the stock stops trading for the day.
     
    #19     Mar 20, 2020
  10. gmal

    gmal

    If there are no bid for SPY puts, can't you sell where ever it is available like MSFT, AMZN or AAPL puts. Since the markets will be closed for the day, those puts should also expire worthless right?
     
    #20     Mar 20, 2020