So they move the Asian HQs to Vietnam? They will be doing even less in singapo. I worked in ibd in hk and know how lossmaking they are, but why does this protest change anything. They suddenly realise Asia isn't that profitable and do 180 turn because of a key law? Credit suiisee and ubs give up on chasing jumbo chinese ipo and return to europe to chase bigdick.com ipo? What you smoking?
This has nothing to do with the protest or extradition bill. It has to do with the fact that conducting business in China is not so profitable anymore when you take into account corporate espionage, IP theft, forced technology transfers, random inspections, forced closures, random stock trading halts that can last months, a lack of fair legal system, tariffs, and now backlashes from your own home base. I am speaking of international firms conducting business in and around China, including HK. When you suddenly realize that you may even at home get severely punished and are at risk of violating future sanctions then this might be the final nail in the coffin for international firms.
So you are talking about real economy firms and I am talking about professional service firms. Different economics. Downsizing possible due to cyclical nature but China is still unquestionably the centre of asia future, can't quit
Once the extradition law is passed, there is no telling whether or not any of the Communism party officials will use this law as an excuse to extort money from the wealthy individuals in Hong Kong. There is absolutely no law to protect them and their investments anymore.
My end of the world prediction is hyperinflation in China and then a civil war. The U.S. is setting that up right now by trying to first stabilize the Middle East. Then sanction on Iran can be properly enforced which will cut off oil to China, we will then see Trump raise further tariff on China. China would think they can devalue the Chinese Yuan to neutralize the tariff. Little will they know playing with the value of their currency is like playing with fire. They will see the Chinese Yuan goes up in the hyperinflationary flame! China will become Chinazuela as flight to capital safety take place.
You just copy/past unproven theories. Innovative spirit and a risk taking mentality, and not being afraid of failure is all not baked into the Asian DNA. Most who predict China to be the uncontested economic leader only base their predictions on the population size and very little else. Until today China has come up with virtually zero innovation. Most Asian economies that strives economically did so for a very short period of time and then imploded. Japan, Korea and I am convinced China will too. Don't get me wrong, China will always be a strong economic domestic market so is Japan even after it stumbled. But both are not innovators by heart, their cultures just do not foster a mentality of constant innovation. Innovation is what adds to productivity and economic growth not IP theft, unfair trade practices and an overall culture that respects and tolerates deceit, lies, cheating, and stealing. It's easy to declare China a champion but the base they generate their growth off is on a much lower level than the US or Europe and their track record is way too short to extrapolate from the past 10 years. I say this as someone who lived for half his life in Japan, is married to a Japanese and who has lived in China and now HK. Where did you gain your insights?
I am almost convinced (80%) that this law will actually not be put up for a vote. China has somewhat signaled that and Carrie Lam has reassured that this bill was not China's idea and China confirmed that. Combine the huge distaste for this bill by the general public with the business lobby joining the opposition camp as well then there is a good chance this bill will be shelved. Business knows that the passing of the bill means the loss of HK's preferred trade status it enjoys with Europe and the US. And the large public unrest comes at the worst timing for China just when a unification of Taiwan became more feasible. If China pushes this through no matter what then the loss in goodwill by the commoners might be irreparable. What you are stating are unwarranted concerns that fear mongers spread. There are tons of wealthy in China and most of them were never abducted nor arrested and never will be. As long as one does not commit egregious crimes of corruption and stands along party lines politically speaking one is safe. It's just the same average people who are actually totally unimportant to the Chinese state who constantly believe they are spied on and at risk of abduction.
The bill will get passed. I do believe the bill is not from China, but I do think Carrie Lam's performance is based on how well Hong Kong get integrated into China. Given that Hong King being integrated with China is inevitable, Carrie might as well get it done and climb the Communist Party ladder. In addition, by passing the extradition bill, she can get rid of many oppositions. Hong Kong will be so much more obedient, and so much easier to manage. The news won't say anything bad about her anymore. With China's support, Carrie has both the career and personal incentives to pass the extradition bill.
Not a brag of anything but i am surely more both japanese/chinese than you. What I said is my opinion it's okay to disagree. If any companies expected China to act fairly to begin with, they wouldn't still be in the business to begin with, all these recent headlines are known by people in the area for a long time.