The homebuilders are officially over..

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Trend Fader, Sep 7, 2005.

  1. Japanese Investors Buy More Overseas Debt

    Ahh, the old interest rate differential game.

    I have noticed that HOV was down a little more than 6% yesterday following its earnings disaster but is up along with all the homebuilders today. Wow, crash city there! They're all trading where they were a few months ago. No biggie.

    10 year @ 4.12%
    Unemployment @ 4.9%

    Housing will be strong as far as the eye can see.
     
    #31     Sep 9, 2005
  2. How do you know what the Chinese are thinking? Noone does.
     
    #32     Sep 9, 2005
  3. I don't

    I can only consider their situation, and observe their actions

    notice their bid for Unocal, and talks about oil with Iran?
     
    #33     Sep 9, 2005

  4. i called that one
     
    #34     Dec 2, 2008
  5. Don't forget that they're asking for a 250 Billion Dollar Bailout package...

    ...and no, I'm not making that shit up.
     
    #35     Dec 2, 2008
  6. SteveD

    SteveD

    I have changed my mind from an earlier post.....

    I think most, if not all, public homebuilders will not be around much longer...

    Their expertise is large land development and mass construction gaining economy of scale on cost.....a lot of their profit was actually land/lot appreciation, finance, but not profit on house

    It may be years before that type of development is needed..

    The small local or regional builder is more nimble and knows location better....will be able to build cost effective

    Hedge funds would be ideal partner for Toll, Hovanian etc...have buckets of cash, no where to put it....builder doesn't have to beg lenders for money....

    I would think getting a bank loan to buy a large tract of land and develop moderate priced housing is the toughest to get for the next several years....

    They will decide not worth it to be public company...not much equity left anyway....

    SteveD
     
    #36     Dec 2, 2008