how soon might a continued drop in home builder stocks and reits stocks be reflected in lower real estate sales across the USA ? if someone is somehow able to chart median home apartment / condo sales against these indice's for the last few yrs ... that would be greatly appreciated ... I guess I can always print out separate charts and overlay them by hand
The home buiders were great runners while they lasted ..... I have been buying puts on Tol ....but one thing to watch is the short interest being careful not to get caught in a short squeeze
Keep in mind that REIT's and public homebuilders have very little if anything to do with each other. The homebuilders will keep trucking along just fine. May not have the quarterly increases but they will still make a lot of money. Home prices may slow their increase also, and even drop a little in some "hot" areas, but will stay up compared to 5 years ago prices. Condo's and second (vacation/speculative) homes may get a little hit also. We will probably see some very tough new regulations coming out on exactly where and where not new construction can take place. In these locations, housing that is damaged or destroyed will not be built back. I would guess that a lot of proposed condo development may never get done. If you cannot state in less than 30 seconds what a REIT is you should not be investing in them. SteveD
What a joke. Head on against the strongest sector in the US economy. Have fun fighting it Trend Fader.
could have said the same thing about tech 5 years ago this whole insanity has been fed by the chinese buying debt at the margin you'd be nuts to buy a colateralized mortgage obligation based on california property for 5% you dont share in the upside, but you do share on the downside i think the chinese will start soaking up commodities, to insure themselves long term pumping air into an overinflated foregin housing market is stupid for them and i think they're figuring that out