The homebuilders are officially over..

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Trend Fader, Sep 7, 2005.

  1. HOV misses earnings tonight.. and fed beige book says they see a slowdown in homes taking place...

    Price lead the fundementals... but now all rallys will be sold into... the cyclical boom is over...
  2. So earnings are still up from same point last year but not enough to satisfy the speculators who were looking for a bigger than average suprise.

    Therefore homebuilders are "officially" over? Idiot.
  3. expecting EMD to underperform tomorrow
  4. 1st qtr 05 was the last outperformance for the builders.
    the are over for some time now
  5. dont forget all the new homes that need to be built from katrina.
    and interest rates will stay low for a little longer for the same reason.
  6. HGX looks like a great short here at 550. TOL was the smoke and HOV is the fire. I'll be selling the OCT 550 synthetic tomorrow.

    I will cover MOO tomorrow.
  8. IYR - Dow R/E index too.

  9. Most of the homebuilders are not involved in those areas... also the houses in LA, MS.. are on the low range of price because its not a rich area... companies like TOL and others stand to benefit nothing from the hurricane....

    If it was in area like AZ, MA, NY, CA, FL, MD.. then these stocks would get a lift..

    Maybe the mobile home manufacturers might get a boost... the fact is that most of the people that live in the damaged area are lower class..
  10. Is there an ETF that represents Home builder stocks more accurately? IYR looks more like real estate holding ETF...
    However if there is no better alternative, than IMHO IYR also seems like a nice short play- 2$ risk at current level of 66-67 can yield 6 to 10 dollars profit over the next few months.

    #10     Sep 7, 2005