The "Holy Grail"

Discussion in 'Trading' started by aphexcoil, Sep 10, 2002.

  1. machine


    I couldn't agree more.
    #11     Sep 10, 2002
    #12     Sep 10, 2002
  3. tntneo

    tntneo Moderator

    true the 10% (that's jungle) or 20% rule whatever.

    still, aphex is on to something. although without any trading experience to speak of, he has the conclusion right.

    now the last test (the real start of the journey though) : start trading. then you'll know if you have what it takes.

    only one problem. it may take a few months (years for some) to finally get it. I hope you have more than the 5k in reserve, because you can't last long enough to get the answer you are looking for.

    #13     Sep 10, 2002
  4. smokey_mcPaat

    smokey_mcPaat Guest

    there is no holy grail to trading- nothing will work ALL of the time- its all about finding a system that works well a high percentage of the times (around 70-80%) and managing your losers very AGGRESSIVELY!!- nothing pisses me off more than a loss, sport....
    #14     Sep 10, 2002
  5. Thats funny I have been making money for years being right only 30-40% of the time and managing my losers very AGGRESSIVELY!!
    #15     Sep 10, 2002
  6. machine


    There you go!
    You probably found a holy grail, didn't you.
    #16     Sep 10, 2002
  7. smokey_mcPaat

    smokey_mcPaat Guest

    how can you survive being right 30-40% of the time??- thats horrible odds and it means that you have a bad strategy- time to sit down and re-evaluate, buddy... and my point was to not let your losers ruin your day- its easy to do and only takes a few bad trades to screw up an entire day's efforts- i manage my red positions first, then worry about taking my profits later (or when i feel that the position is at an optimal level) but dont let stubborness and stupidity cost you money- i don't and thats why i dont lose my ass like some pikers here.....:D

    good trading to you all !!!
    #17     Sep 10, 2002
  8. Bro are you serious with this??? :confused:

    Smokey put the bong down for a sec, grab a pad and paper and I am sure you can figure it out!
    #18     Sep 10, 2002
  9. Aphexcoil -

    Your comments are vague at best. Indicators don't work? What does that mean? Which indicators, what time frame, what parameteres? Is this a comprehensive study that you did on TA? Do you have your results ready?

    Having the TA indicators at your disposal is not going to automatically make you profitable no more than a saw will allow one to make beautiful furniture. Read about millionaires such as Stan Weinstein or John Bollinger who are TA purists and that have produced consistent results year after year.

    You can't just throw a Bollinger Band chart up there and start trading the cliche'd extremes. Find a backtesting package, get the data that represents the time frame that you wish to trade, and start to mix and match parameters to develop a system with statistical validity. Pick up a good statistics book while you're at it to explain curve fitting.

    Look to the experts at wealth-lab; these are individuals that utilize comprehensive TA systems every day in their trading. Read their posts, look at the code for their systems, look at the historical performance of these systems, and start to build your own system off the systems that have been exhaustingly backtested.

    Just because something appears to be overcomplex does not mean its not valid, more than likely, its just being misused.
    #19     Sep 10, 2002
  10. regough


    To Aphexcoil,

    I am afraid I am inclined to agree with your sentiments in your opening post. I am not sure whether it is necessary to discuss the merits of TA- Some can't trade without it and some can't be bothered with it- Each to his own, I say. :)

    It is exceedingly easy to make trading exceedingly difficult.

    There are plenty of successful traders that have developed their own strategies using all sorts of TA combinations, indicators, parameters, etc., etc. and that is fine for them- all well and good!

    However, there are plenty of successful traders who would prefer not to have to look at any of them(patterns, indicators, etc., etc.) They have figured out a methodology of tape reading, looking at price charts(probably with volume) or whatever and being able to "visualize" a potentially successful trade and that is fine for them- all well and good.

    As far as I can tell, the ONLY thing that matters at the end of the hour, day, or week, month(pick your time frame) is your account has more money in it than when you started(And that you enjoyed doing it!) The end justifies the means!(as long as it is legal (or mostly ) ) :)

    You can go long, go short, stand aside, trade 100 times a day, trade once a month- doesn't matter. You can trade Emini's, NYSE, NASDAQ, ETF's. You can also scan all the markets for something to trade or you can pick one stock and trade it forever.

    All that is necessary is to make good trades, consistently, over and over and over, and over. . . . . . . . . . . AND have some method or strategy for risk control, discipline, money management, i.e. controlling the downside so you don't blow up your account.

    When dealing with any market(that's not "fixed"), after all the examination and analysis of any kind- it is still a guess- it might be a very good guess, you might have the probabilities in your favor(hopefully) but it is STILL a guess.

    AND, as always,
    #20     Sep 10, 2002