The Holy Grail was not what I expect it to be

Discussion in 'Trading' started by jinxu, Oct 23, 2024.

  1. jinxu

    jinxu

    Well based on today test of the holy grail system

    it show s a maximum Reward to risk ratio of 5:1 meaning what would have been the maximum reward vs what would have been the maximum loss and I say that's pretty good and it's unbelievable.

    Same or similar result for yesterday test. What I would like to do is backtest some more but I only have limited data and can't do much backtesting.

    Your 80% failure rate for breakout is because price action is ultimately random and you're being fooled into thinking it's not random.
     
    #21     Oct 23, 2024
    beginner66 likes this.
  2. jinxu

    jinxu

    I hope that's typo and you meant to say Mount Doom. :)
     
    #22     Oct 23, 2024
  3. jinxu

    jinxu

    Hello,

    I think so too. I keep trying to make the other system works but I think it just doesn't.
     
    #23     Oct 23, 2024
  4. Handle123

    Handle123

    How far back did you backtest? And how about forward testing? Did you use clean data? Test using tick data?

    I am very experienced in chart patterns, in order to decrease losses, the "story" before a chart pattern has to be defined and tested, how far is the drop relative to overall pattern or duration...etc...

    I don't care about losses, I care about reaching daily (3 shifts)(evening, after midnight. USA session) goals. They are not huge point goals, add size increases profits but goal per lot stays same.

    For Me, Holy Grail is keeping losses below 8% for the month and reaching daily goal almost every day.
    USA session is toughest to be profitable but size can be easily swallowed.

    Indicators are easily to be coded so long they mimic chart patterns.

    Never ever post charts of your holy grail, very experienced traders can break your system.

    Don't let the masses hold you back.
     
    #24     Oct 23, 2024
    beginner66 and SimpleMeLike like this.
  5. Coin Flip

    Coin Flip

    You should be quiet and stop giving away your edge. There is a reason why Goldman Sachs is very secretive and their traders need to sign NDAs.
     
    #25     Oct 23, 2024
  6. oshjdf

    oshjdf

    What is your definition of holy grail? Did you mean edge (+ve expectancy) is holy grail?
     
    #26     Oct 23, 2024
  7. just make sure you win big with the winning 20% to make up for the losing 80%. then it'd comes down to your ideas on stock selection.
     
    #27     Oct 24, 2024
  8. Really? lol Price action is random? That's why we have trading ranges, triangles, c&h's, and a myriad of other chart patterns developing all the time??? I won't even get into explaining cycles and EW...

    How can you even fathom that price action is random? It's the complete opposite actually, it's determined. His 80% failure rate is because he doesn't understand price action.
     
    #28     Oct 24, 2024
  9. taowave

    taowave

    You are much closer to an investor than trader,and do not employ any risk management,so you are coming from a much different perspective.

    From the few positions you have shown,had you employed stops,your hit rate would be close to 20 percent. At least 3 of your positions had plunged 30 plus percent and you opted for option repair giving up all upside if your directional call turned out correct.

    Keep in mind that you sell puts,and maintain it's a bearish position as you want to get assigned...

    Your hit rate numbers are a delusion











     
    #29     Oct 24, 2024
  10. You are ignoring me? TAO!!!???

    My MARA trades you are referring to were mechanical to test the system. They were not designed to be upside trades, just for premium. I literally posted that I was taking a trade that was likely to go against me but I wanted to see how it would perform. Yes I employ risk management, but just not stupidly with stop losses WHICH DON'T PROTECT YOU AH ANYWAY! I manage my risk by capping capital allotted. I am a swing trader, as I see trading anything less is a wot...why make 10 trades when you can make 1?

    Do you forget the MARA trade I posted where I was profiting both sides of a triangle BEFORE it had even formed lol. I'm on another level. :)
     
    Last edited: Oct 24, 2024
    #30     Oct 24, 2024
    taowave likes this.