The Hindsight Thread.

For the sake of closure, here's an update on the "warning" chart of the ES I posted before the open today:

 

The Foresight chart may be found here.

 

The Foresight chart may be found here.



An understanding of price behavior can also help you avoid trading on days when there's really no point in doing so. Was there a short at 20? Yes. But that was really about it unless one just loves trading chop.

Others may of course disagree. And probably will.

 

The Foresight chart may be found here.

 

The Foresight chart may be found here.

 

I've read on a couple of threads that there is some confusion about what to do when trading a range.

A breakout to the upside out of the range should be bought.

A breakout to the downside out of the range should be sold short.

A reversal off the upper limit of a range should be sold short.

A reversal off the lower limit of a range should be bought.

 

The Foresight chart may be found here.

 

For starters, can you please define breakout of an s/r in a precise manner including details on how to objectively notice it.

Thanks

 

If price rises above the line (breaks out), buy.

If price drops below the line, sell or short.



Your precise entry will depend on how afraid you are to (a) enter and (b) manage the trade. This in turn will depend in part on how well you have addressed price risk, information risk, and opportunity/time risk. If you haven't addressed your fears regarding risk at all (and your emphasis on "precision" suggests that this is the case), then you should postpone trading until you have done so.

As for "noticing it", you will not notice price' rising above resistance unless you're looking at it. However, you can if you must place a stoplimit buy entry above the line and let your platform take care of it. This carries its own risk, which you must also address.

Unless and until you come to terms with risk, the potential reward is entirely irrelevant.