The Herd, Vaccine and Natural Immunity Thread....

Ricter · Oct 7, 2020

jem said:
So much for morons on this site... who were claiming there is no such thing as herd immunity
---

Thousands of Scientists and Doctors state Herd Immunity is the policy we need to follow...

in part it is the most compassionate overall.

https://gbdeclaration.org/

Signed by

Medical & Public
Health Scientists

3,298
Medical
Practitioners

5,049
General
Public

76,537
The Great Barrington Declaration
As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection.

Coming from both the left and right, and around the world, we have devoted our careers to protecting people. Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice.

Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.

Fortunately, our understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza.

As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.

The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection.

Adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses to COVID-19. By way of example, nursing homes should use staff with acquired immunity and perform frequent PCR testing of other staff and all visitors. Staff rotation should be minimized. Retired people living at home should have groceries and other essentials delivered to their home. When possible, they should meet family members outside rather than inside. A comprehensive and detailed list of measures, including approaches to multi-generational households, can be implemented, and is well within the scope and capability of public health professionals.

Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.

On October 4, 2020, this declaration was authored and signed in Great Barrington, United States, by:

Dr. Martin Kulldorff, professor of medicine at Harvard University, a biostatistician, and epidemiologist with expertise in detecting and monitoring of infectious disease outbreaks and vaccine safety evaluations.

Dr. Sunetra Gupta, professor at Oxford University, an epidemiologist with expertise in immunology, vaccine development, and mathematical modeling of infectious diseases.

Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professor at Stanford University Medical School, a physician, epidemiologist, health economist, and public health policy expert focusing on infectious diseases and vulnerable populations.

SIGN THE DECLARATION
Co-signers
Medical and Public Health Scientists and Medical Practitioners
Prof. Sucharit Bhakdi, em. Professor of Medical Microbiology, University of Mainz, Germany

Dr. Rajiv Bhatia, MD, MPH, Physician with the VA, epidemiology, health equity practice, and health impact assessment of public policy, USA

Prof. Stephen Bremner,
Professor of Medical Statistics, Brighton and Sussex Medical School, University of Sussex, UK

Prof. Anthony J Brookes, Department of Genetics & Genome Biology, University of Leicester, UK

Dr. Helen Colhoun, professor of medical informatics and epidemiology, and public health physician, with expertise in risk prediction, University of Edinburgh, UK

Prof. Angus Dalgleish, MD, FRCP, FRACP, FRCPath, FMedSci, Department of Oncology, St. George’s, University of London, UK

Dr. Sylvia Fogel, autism expert and psychiatrist at Massachusetts General Hospital and instructor at Harvard Medical School, USA.

Dr. Eitan Friedman, MD, PhD. Founder and Director, The Susanne Levy Gertner Oncogenetics Unit, The Danek Gertner Institute of Human Genetics, Chaim Sheba Medical Center and Professor of Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine and Depertment of Human Genetics and Biochemistry, Tel-Aviv University, Israel
Dr. Uri Gavish, an expert in algorithm analysis and a biomedical consultant

Prof. Motti Gerlic, Department of Clinical Microbiology and Immunology, Tel Aviv University, Israel

Dr. Gabriela Gomes, professor, a mathematician focussing on population dynamics, evolutionary theory and infectious disease epidemiology. University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK

Prof. Mike Hulme, professor of human geography, University of Cambridge, UK

Dr. Michael Jackson, PhD is an ecologist and research fellow at the University of Canterbury, New Zealand.

Dr. David Katz, MD, MPH, President, True Health Initiative and the Founder and Former Director of the Yale University Prevention Research Center, USA

Dr. Andrius Kavaliunas, epidemiologist and assistant professor at Karolinska Institute, Sweden

Dr. Laura Lazzeroni, PhD., biostatistician and data scientist, professor of psychiatry and behavioral sciences and of biomedical data science. Stanford University Medical School, USA

Dr. Michael Levitt, PhD is a biophysicist and a professor of structural biology. Dr. Levitt received the 2013 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems. Stanford University, USA

Prof. David Livermore, Professor, microbiologist with expertise in disease epidemiology, antibiotic resistance and rapid diagnostics. University of East Anglia, UK

Dr. Jonas Ludvigsson, pediatrician, epidemiologist and professor at Karolinska Institute and senior physician at Örebro University Hospital, Sweden.

Dr. Paul McKeigue, professor of epidemiology and public health physician, with expertise in statistical modelling of disease. University of Edinburgh, UK

Dr. Cody Meissner, professor of pediatrics, expert on vaccine development, efficacy and safety. Tufts University School of Medicine, USA

Prof. Ariel Munitz, Department of Clinical Microbiology and Immunology, Tel Aviv University, Israel

Prof. Yaz Gulnur Muradoglu, Professor of Finance, Director at Behavioural Finance Working Group, School of Business and Management, Queen Mary University of London, UK

Prof. Partha P. Majumder, PhD, FNA, FASc, FNASc, FTWAS National Science Chair, Distinguished Professor and Founder National Institute of Biomedical Genomics, KalyaniEmeritus Professor Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, India

Prof. Udi Qimron, Chair, Department of Clinical Microbiology and Immunology, Tel Aviv University, Israel

Prof. Matthew Ratcliffe, Professor of Philosophy specializing in philosophy of mental health, University of York, UK

Dr. Mario Recker, Associate Professor in Applied Mathematics at the Centre for Mathematics and the Environment, University of Exeter, UK

Dr. Eyal Shahar, MD professor (emeritus) of public health, physician, epidemiologist, with expertise in causal and statistical inference. University of Arizona, USA

Prof. Karol Sikora MA, PhD, MBBChir, FRCP, FRCR, FFPM, Medical Director of Rutherford Health, Oncologist, & Dean of Medicine, UK

Dr. Matthew Strauss, critical care physician and assistant professor of medicine, Queen’s University, Canada

Dr. Rodney Sturdivant, PhD. associate professor of biostatistics. Director of the Baylor Statistical Consulting Center. Focus on infectious disease spread and diagnosis. Baylor University, USA

Dr. Simon Thornley, PhD, epidemiologist, biostatistics and epidemiological analysis, communicable and non-communicable diseases. University of Auckland, New Zealand.

Prof. Ellen Townsend, Self-Harm Research Group, University of Nottingham, UK.

Prof. Lisa White, Professor of Modelling and Epidemiology Nuffield Department of Medicine, Oxford University, UK

Prof. Simon Wood, professor, statistician with expertise in statistical methodology, applied statistics and mathematical modelling in biology, University of Edinburgh, UK
More...

Who claimed there is "no such thing" as herd immunity? Of course there is. It's no solution, though, because some 60% of the population still needs to get covid19 before we achieve it. That's a lot of needless deaths. We'll have a vaccine before then, so cowboy up.

Buy1Sell2 · Oct 7, 2020

Ricter said:
Who claimed there is "no such thing" as herd immunity? Of course there is. It's no solution, though, because some 60% of the population still needs to get covid19 before we achieve it. That's a lot of needless deaths. We'll have a vaccine before then, so cowboy up.
More...

Not so novel coronavirus?
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563
At least six studies have reported T cell reactivity against SARS-CoV-2 in 20% to 50% of people with no known exposure to the virus.5 6 7 8 9 10

In a study of donor blood specimens obtained in the US between 2015 and 2018, 50% displayed various forms of T cell reactivity to SARS-CoV-2.5 11

Ricter · Oct 7, 2020

Buy1Sell2 said:
Not so novel coronavirus?
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563
At least six studies have reported T cell reactivity against SARS-CoV-2 in 20% to 50% of people with no known exposure to the virus.5 6 7 8 9 10

In a study of donor blood specimens obtained in the US between 2015 and 2018, 50% displayed various forms of T cell reactivity to SARS-CoV-2.5 11
More...

Grow a pair, follow the process, and we'll have a vaccine before you know it.

gwb-trading · Oct 7, 2020

jem said:
So much for morons on this site... who were claiming there is no such thing as herd immunity
---

Thousands of Scientists and Doctors state Herd Immunity is the policy we need to follow...

in part it is the most compassionate overall.

https://gbdeclaration.org/

Signed by

Medical & Public
Health Scientists

3,298
Medical
Practitioners

5,049
General
Public

76,537
The Great Barrington Declaration
As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection.

Coming from both the left and right, and around the world, we have devoted our careers to protecting people. Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice.

Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.

Fortunately, our understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza.

As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.

The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection.

Adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses to COVID-19. By way of example, nursing homes should use staff with acquired immunity and perform frequent PCR testing of other staff and all visitors. Staff rotation should be minimized. Retired people living at home should have groceries and other essentials delivered to their home. When possible, they should meet family members outside rather than inside. A comprehensive and detailed list of measures, including approaches to multi-generational households, can be implemented, and is well within the scope and capability of public health professionals.

Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.

On October 4, 2020, this declaration was authored and signed in Great Barrington, United States, by:

Dr. Martin Kulldorff, professor of medicine at Harvard University, a biostatistician, and epidemiologist with expertise in detecting and monitoring of infectious disease outbreaks and vaccine safety evaluations.

Dr. Sunetra Gupta, professor at Oxford University, an epidemiologist with expertise in immunology, vaccine development, and mathematical modeling of infectious diseases.

Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professor at Stanford University Medical School, a physician, epidemiologist, health economist, and public health policy expert focusing on infectious diseases and vulnerable populations.

SIGN THE DECLARATION
Co-signers
Medical and Public Health Scientists and Medical Practitioners
Prof. Sucharit Bhakdi, em. Professor of Medical Microbiology, University of Mainz, Germany

Dr. Rajiv Bhatia, MD, MPH, Physician with the VA, epidemiology, health equity practice, and health impact assessment of public policy, USA

Prof. Stephen Bremner,
Professor of Medical Statistics, Brighton and Sussex Medical School, University of Sussex, UK

Prof. Anthony J Brookes, Department of Genetics & Genome Biology, University of Leicester, UK

Dr. Helen Colhoun, professor of medical informatics and epidemiology, and public health physician, with expertise in risk prediction, University of Edinburgh, UK

Prof. Angus Dalgleish, MD, FRCP, FRACP, FRCPath, FMedSci, Department of Oncology, St. George’s, University of London, UK

Dr. Sylvia Fogel, autism expert and psychiatrist at Massachusetts General Hospital and instructor at Harvard Medical School, USA.

Dr. Eitan Friedman, MD, PhD. Founder and Director, The Susanne Levy Gertner Oncogenetics Unit, The Danek Gertner Institute of Human Genetics, Chaim Sheba Medical Center and Professor of Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine and Depertment of Human Genetics and Biochemistry, Tel-Aviv University, Israel
Dr. Uri Gavish, an expert in algorithm analysis and a biomedical consultant

Prof. Motti Gerlic, Department of Clinical Microbiology and Immunology, Tel Aviv University, Israel

Dr. Gabriela Gomes, professor, a mathematician focussing on population dynamics, evolutionary theory and infectious disease epidemiology. University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK

Prof. Mike Hulme, professor of human geography, University of Cambridge, UK

Dr. Michael Jackson, PhD is an ecologist and research fellow at the University of Canterbury, New Zealand.

Dr. David Katz, MD, MPH, President, True Health Initiative and the Founder and Former Director of the Yale University Prevention Research Center, USA

Dr. Andrius Kavaliunas, epidemiologist and assistant professor at Karolinska Institute, Sweden

Dr. Laura Lazzeroni, PhD., biostatistician and data scientist, professor of psychiatry and behavioral sciences and of biomedical data science. Stanford University Medical School, USA

Dr. Michael Levitt, PhD is a biophysicist and a professor of structural biology. Dr. Levitt received the 2013 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems. Stanford University, USA

Prof. David Livermore, Professor, microbiologist with expertise in disease epidemiology, antibiotic resistance and rapid diagnostics. University of East Anglia, UK

Dr. Jonas Ludvigsson, pediatrician, epidemiologist and professor at Karolinska Institute and senior physician at Örebro University Hospital, Sweden.

Dr. Paul McKeigue, professor of epidemiology and public health physician, with expertise in statistical modelling of disease. University of Edinburgh, UK

Dr. Cody Meissner, professor of pediatrics, expert on vaccine development, efficacy and safety. Tufts University School of Medicine, USA

Prof. Ariel Munitz, Department of Clinical Microbiology and Immunology, Tel Aviv University, Israel

Prof. Yaz Gulnur Muradoglu, Professor of Finance, Director at Behavioural Finance Working Group, School of Business and Management, Queen Mary University of London, UK

Prof. Partha P. Majumder, PhD, FNA, FASc, FNASc, FTWAS National Science Chair, Distinguished Professor and Founder National Institute of Biomedical Genomics, KalyaniEmeritus Professor Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, India

Prof. Udi Qimron, Chair, Department of Clinical Microbiology and Immunology, Tel Aviv University, Israel

Prof. Matthew Ratcliffe, Professor of Philosophy specializing in philosophy of mental health, University of York, UK

Dr. Mario Recker, Associate Professor in Applied Mathematics at the Centre for Mathematics and the Environment, University of Exeter, UK

Dr. Eyal Shahar, MD professor (emeritus) of public health, physician, epidemiologist, with expertise in causal and statistical inference. University of Arizona, USA

Prof. Karol Sikora MA, PhD, MBBChir, FRCP, FRCR, FFPM, Medical Director of Rutherford Health, Oncologist, & Dean of Medicine, UK

Dr. Matthew Strauss, critical care physician and assistant professor of medicine, Queen’s University, Canada

Dr. Rodney Sturdivant, PhD. associate professor of biostatistics. Director of the Baylor Statistical Consulting Center. Focus on infectious disease spread and diagnosis. Baylor University, USA

Dr. Simon Thornley, PhD, epidemiologist, biostatistics and epidemiological analysis, communicable and non-communicable diseases. University of Auckland, New Zealand.

Prof. Ellen Townsend, Self-Harm Research Group, University of Nottingham, UK.

Prof. Lisa White, Professor of Modelling and Epidemiology Nuffield Department of Medicine, Oxford University, UK

Prof. Simon Wood, professor, statistician with expertise in statistical methodology, applied statistics and mathematical modelling in biology, University of Edinburgh, UK
More...

So... it's a website where any dimwit can go sign the Great Barrington Declaration resolution. Many of the signatories don't even exist or were signed up by someone else & are fake. of course it is sponsored by the American Institute for Economic Research, a conservative think tank.

The Great Barrington Declaration has already been exposed in the U.K. press as nonsense and has been rejected by the government as idiotic.

Buy1Sell2 · Oct 7, 2020

Ricter said:
follow the process, and we'll have a vaccine before you know it.
More...

Read the TCell article and you'll have a bit better understanding of why we may be very close to herd immunity right now without a vaccine.

jem · Oct 7, 2020

GWB said it at least a dozen times.

the level of infection needed for natural herd immunity is much lower than vaccine immunity because this virus does infect random people. It infects the most susceptible and the ones with the largest networks. Who then become immune or die - making the next "rounds" progressively tougher for the virus.

I posted studies about that on this thread.

Ricter said:
Who claimed there is "no such thing" as herd immunity? Of course there is. It's no solution, though, because some 60% of the population still needs to get covid19 before we achieve it. That's a lot of needless deaths. We'll have a vaccine before then, so cowboy up.
More...

Ricter · Oct 7, 2020

Yeah, well, follow the process until we get there and quit your bitching.

jem · Oct 7, 2020

So you are ignoring the top scientists in their fields from top universities like Oxford and Stanford.

you crazy Covid nut case.

gwb-trading said:
So... it's a website where any dimwit can go sign the Great Barrington Declaration resolution. Many of the signatories don't even exist or were signed up by someone else & are fake. of course it is sponsored by the American Institute for Economic Research, a conservative think tank.

The Great Barrington Declaration has already been exposed in the U.K. press as nonsense and has been rejected by the government as idiotic.
More...

jem · Oct 7, 2020

We would be there or a lot closer, if moron politicians had not locked down the low risk and threatening to do it again.

We should be following the advice of these experts.
The lock down of the low risk is doing far more harm than good.

Ricter said:
Yeah, well, follow the process until we get there and quit your bitching.
More...

Ricter · Oct 7, 2020

jem said:
So you are ignoring the top scientists in their fields from top universities like Oxford and Stanford.

you crazy Covid nut case.
More...

No, but I'm tough enough to wear a mask and do the social distancing thing until we get a green light that "the herd" accepts.