yes dnc doomer... same article on the other thread...true. But I quoted a far more important part of it if we don't develop a distribute a vaccine in the short run... say the next few months. the part that went against the narrative. the part that indicates we do build an immune response to the virus. not just that there is hope for a vaccine.... but why there is hope for a vaccine and therefore the chance for herd immunity before the vaccine. https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-05/ljif-dao051420.php "All efforts to predict the best vaccine candidates and fine-tune pandemic control measures hinge on understanding the immune response to the virus," says Crotty, also a professor in the Center for Infectious Disease and Vaccine Research. "People were really worried that COVID-19 doesn't induce immunity, and reports about people getting re-infected reinforced these concerns, but knowing now that the average person makes a solid immune response should largely put those concerns to rest."
So... what does this mean if the virus is mostly spread by super spreaders. it may mean that rather than protect the high risk from the low risk... we have to protect the low risk and the high risk from the high risk. (which may explain why the media and the establishment have been pumping out bullshit for so long. ) More... holiday inn express speculation... but... its logical if this virus is mostly spread in clusters by superspreaders... It means herd immunity will take a long time if on the low risk group is out an about. Probability wise the low risk group will not catch it from each other and build immunities. The low risk group will only catch it from the high risk group. Practically speaking however it means there is zero reason to lock down the low risk group since they will not spread it to each other. It may only spread when a person mis identifies themselves as high risk and does not seek treatment as soon as symptoms appear. So the best policy would be... let out the low risk group immediately... and monitor for clusters. When a cluster breaks out... lock it down in a limited manner for a short time... and test and trace like crazy. Find that superspreader. Once you have... the cluster may return to normal quickly because the low risk group probably will not spread it much or at all.
I see after doing a search experts knew... months ago... about the possiblity of superspreaders and clusters. To his credit this guy in Germany knew or suspected super spreaders or super spread clusters... he explains that targeted testing is what is needed. Q: Should all countries be testing everybody? A: I’m not sure. Even in Germany, with our huge testing capacity, and most of it directed to people reporting symptoms, we have not had a positivity rate above 8%. So I think targeted testing might be best, for people who are really vulnerable – staff in hospitals and care homes, for example. This is not fully in place even in Germany, though we’re moving towards it. The other target should be patients in the first week of symptoms, especially elderly patients who tend to come to hospital too late at the moment – when their lips are already blue and they need intubation. And we need some kind of sentinel surveillance system, to sample the population regularly and follow the development of the reproduction number. here is some more... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-drosten-germany-coronavirus-expert-interview Christian Drosten, who directs the Institute of Virology at the Charité Hospital in Berlin, was one of those who identified the Sars virus in 2003. As the head of the German public health institute’s reference lab on coronaviruses, he has become the government’s go-to expert on the related virus causing the current pandemic. In an exclusive interview, Drosten admits he fears a second deadly wave of the virus. He explains why Angela Merkel has an advantage over other world leaders – and why the “prevention paradox” keeps him awake at night. Q: Germany will start to lift its lockdown gradually from Monday. What happens next? A: At the moment, we are seeing half-empty ICUs in Germany. This is because we started diagnostics early and on a broad scale, and we stopped the epidemic – that is, we brought the reproduction number [a key measure of the spread of the virus] below 1. Now, what I call the “prevention paradox” has set in. People are claiming we over-reacted, there is political and economic pressure to return to normal. The federal plan is to lift lockdown slightly, but because the German states, or Länder, set their own rules, I fear we’re going to see a lot of creativity in the interpretation of that plan. I worry that the reproduction number will start to climb again, and we will have a second wave. Q: If the lockdown were kept in place longer, could the disease be eradicated? A: There is a group of modellers in Germany who suggest that by prolonging lockdown here for another few weeks, we could really suppress virus circulation to a considerable degree – bringing the reproduction number below 0.2. I tend to support them but I haven’t completely made up my mind. The reproduction number is just an average, an indication. It doesn’t tell you about pockets of high prevalence such as senior citizens’ homes, where it will take longer to eradicate the disease, and from where we could see a rapid resurgence even if lockdown were extended. Q: If there were such a resurgence, could it be contained? A: Yes, but it can’t happen based on human contact-tracing alone. We now have evidence that almost half of infection events happen before the person passing on the infection develops symptoms – and people are infectious starting two days prior to that. That means that human contact-tracers working with patients to identify those they’ve been exposed to are in a race against time. They need help to catch all those potentially exposed as quickly as possible – and that will require electronic contact-tracing. Q: How close we are to achieving herd immunity? A: To achieve herd immunity we need 60-70% of the population to carry antibodies to the virus. The results of antibody tests suggest that in Europe and the US, in general, we are in the low single digits, but the tests are not reliable – all of them have problems with false positives – and herd immunity is also not the whole story. It assumes complete mixing of the population, but there are reasons – in part to do with the social networks people form – why the whole population may not be available for infection at any given time. Networks shift, and new people are exposed to the virus. Such effects can drive waves of infection. Another factor that could impact herd immunity is whether other coronaviruses – those that cause the common cold, for example – offer protection to this one. We don’t know, but it’s possible.
google with their own super spread twist about networks.... New work from Google scientists suggests that mass-testing of populations for the COVID-19 disease is not the way to go, given that infectious events may be heavily weighted toward the so-called super-spreaders, individuals in the population who have a larger-than-average number of contacts and tend to infect more people as a result. Scientists Ofir Reich and Guy Shalev of Google, and Tom Kalvari of Tel Aviv University, put together a simulation of the spread of COVID-19 using assumptions about people's networks of relationships. They offer two main takeaways. One is that to unlock society, extensive testing for infection is needed. Second, simply trying to test everyone ignores the structure by which infection spreads, a structure that demands more selective kinds of testing. https://www.zdnet.com/article/googl...uper-spreaders-are-a-big-part-of-the-problem/ They did not try to examine how the superspreaders spread only that it spread among those who had a big network. I doubt it was about the network as much as when they turned highly infectious and how much the moved around before getting isolated.
Google scientists also realized the "experts", the media (and the narrative loving dopes here) were far behind the times... we told you narrative spouters the "experts" were treating you like mushrooms, keeping you in the dark and feeding you shit for models. https://www.zdnet.com/article/googl...uper-spreaders-are-a-big-part-of-the-problem/ Reich and colleagues move beyond the typical infectious disease models that are commonly used for COVID-19. Those models are based on the so-called "susceptible, infectious, recovered" model of disease spread. The SIR model is a "mechanistic" model, based on a very general understanding of the mechanism by which all infectious diseases spread. It was first introduced in 1927 by scientists William Ogilvy Kermack and Anderson Gray McKendrick. The problem, according to Reich & Co., is that SIR is focused heavily on one number above all others, the "R-naught," the theoretical transmission rate, how many people, on average, each infected person can infect. It's been the dominant focus of models of COVID-19 for months now. Instead, Reich and team emphasize not the average, but the extraordinary cases in society, the people who have many more contacts than most people, and can therefore infect an unusually large amount of people. Super-spreaders have been studied for many years with respect to numerous epidemics. The 2014-2015 outbreak of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus, or "MERS," was traced to one South Korean individual who spread the disease to numerous individuals, two of whom spread the disease to further large groups. Similar patterns of "index" patients were observed with Ebola and with the SARS outbreak in 2002 to 2003. Scientists don't know exactly why certain people "shed" virus, meaning, pass it on, more than others. It might have to do with weakened immunity in those individuals, but there are other hypotheses. (Scientist Gary Wong and colleagues at the Chinese Academy of Science provided an excellent explanation of the super-spreader phenomenon in a paper a few years ago, and their work is cited by Reich & Co.) Reich, who is a data scientist at Google, doesn't have the explanation for why super-spreading happens. Rather, he and colleagues take the fact of super-spreading as a given to create predictions of what super-spreading does in a pandemic.
More incredibly bad news for the narrative spouters. We may run out of patients before a vaccine can be developed... Can you believe this statement? I saw a Stanford professor say this would happen... but... How could this be a race against the virus disappearing if the doomers were right about this virus? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...sity-vaccine-trials-run-into-hurdle-telegraph “It’s a race against the virus disappearing, and against time,” Professor Adrian Hill, director of the university’s Jenner Institute, told the newspaper. “We said earlier in the year that there was an 80% chance of developing an effective vaccine by September. But at the moment, there’s a 50% chance that we get no result at all.”
Sweden didn't stay open for herd immunity, they knew they wouldn't over whelm their hospitals. 4K dead even for a small country is not so bad, specially that half of them were 86 year olds. Pennsylvania has the same size and dead and they locked down for 2 months.
https://www.businessinsider.com/cor...t-fifty-per-cent-vaccine-trial-success-2020-5 "You wouldn't start [trials] in London now for sure," Bell told the newspaper. Cases of the coronavirus in England's capital are currently falling faster than anywhere else in the country. Bell said that scientists might have to "chase" the virus around the nation for the vaccine trials to be successful. "The latest figures show 634 confirmed cases in the capital in the past fortnight," Bell told the newspaper.
As noted in many British articles about this - the reduced number of cases in the U.K. is the happy result due to applying good public health policy It is solely due to the 60 day lockdown in the U.K. and the phased re-opening. This public health policy is having the desired effect of making the number COVID-19 cases drastically reduced. Certainly they can go test the vaccination in Brazil which lets everyone run wild with no shutdown --- just as you continually push. Plenty of cases in Brazil and the number is increasing every day.