Models vary according to one’s funding. Apolitical science seems to be coming rare these days. Look at the controversy on Climate change and the ozone hole. Look at the dozens of models that say human over population is reached anywhere from 500 million to 1 trillion inhabitants. So much for the scientific method. The key is to gather data, create a hypothesis, and find additional ways the test that hypothesis. Then one has a chance of drawing a reasonable conclusion and taking effective action. Let’s look at a list of attributes of covid-19, make some conclusions about the nature of this virus, and develop on ideas on effective policy. Covid-19: 1. Has a R0 of 2.2 to 3.5, more infectious than seasonal flu with its R0 of .9 to 2.1. In order to reduce the chance of becoming infected with Covid-19 and its spread, properly worn protection equipment(PPE) is necessary in public. In addition, other sanitary practices are important such as effectively washing one’s hands and regularily decomtaminating frequently touched surfaces. 2. Once a new influenza strain has entered the human population, children become a major transmission vector. This is likely the case with Covid-19. This has implications for policies regarding schools. Children can infect other children and teachers, giving the virus an easier chance to spread among family members when the child comes home. Combined with the child being infectious for several days before showing symptoms make Covid-19 particularily insideous. Therefore, PPE should be required in schools. 3. Has a case fatality rate of .7 to 2.1%, higher than seasonal flu’s .1% of so. Covid-19 is a serious disease and requires decisive measures to limit its spread. 4. Severe cases that don’t cause death can leave victims with permanent damage and potential disability. The percentage of these severe cases is about 15%. This feature of Covid-19 seems underreported, but when measured by combined disability years of those aged, say 45 to 65, the human and economic cost of this virus is severe. 6. May be transmitted asympomatically. As mentioned earlier, PPE must be worn in public and when there are congregations of people present. 7. An infected patient may not become immune, worse, but not a world apart from seasonal influenza. Influenza vaccines have an estimated effectiveness of 9 to 44%, depending on recent strains. This feature of Covid-19 has devastating implications for those who don’t take this virus seriously. With confirmed Covid-19 patients not having antibodies after 3 months, this implies there will be no effective vaccines and that the herd immunity strategy will not be effective. However, Chloroquine and zinc combine for a low cost treatment that is apparently effective in early stage treatment of Covid-19. The issue seems to be certain elements of the medical profession want there to be a more profitable treatment option. For reference, look at statins. Indeed, with our well connected world, the last thing one would want to see happen is human population becoming “Saturated” with Covid-19. The more Covid-19 spreads, the more outbreaks are in our future. Remember, patient 0 and maybe a few others from the Wuhan food market origin of this virus have infected the world with this dangerous, high R0 virus. This further implies Covid-19 will be around for a long time, say 10 plus years, unless precautions are consistently adhered to. With death rates of 1% and temporary(At least) disability rates of 15%, a question begs to be asked: What are the statistics going to look like for those who are over 45 years old if they become reinfected? Does each reinfection mean another roll of the dice regarding chances of severe disease or death? How about those who have been reinfected several times, did not have severe outcomes, but for whatever reason get Covid-19 after an accident, infection, or having a temporarily rundown immune system? 8. Certain blood types and genetic profiles are more susceptable to severe disease. As more information develops, those at high risk can take enhanced measures of self protection. Based on the above, decisive action is warrented both individually and legistlatively on Covid. We seemingly have the facts and based on those facts, a reasonable game plan. It is perfectly reasonable to contest the validity of the previously mentioned “Facts” and the derived game plan. But please, if you do contest my assertions, at least supply some thoughful reasoning behind it.
No. It should be allowed to spread through schools and get it over with. Vulnerable people need to stop touching their faces.
FALSE---There are a lot more case of Kung Flu than you can imagine and death rate is much much lower than your estimate. It's likely .1% to .2%
This virus transmits through the air and can survive on various surfaces for hours. Viruses can infect through the eyes, mouth, nose, cuts and abrasions, and other areas. You may wish to educate yourself through the following websites: NEJM.org, CDC.gov, and WHO.int.