As predicted moron.... As I told you months ago. Your models were from the 1920s and 50s... and they make assumptions about populations that do not match reality. I told you weeks ago...the better way to analyse this virus is via the cluster and super spreader model. Which means that the vast majority of people either don't spread the virus at all or spread it to 1 person. Meaning that if you isolate the sick and the high risk the effective spread rate in a low risk population could be significantly less than 1. Now you can see natural herd immunity at even lower levels than 43 percent in your healthy low risk population. I have been telling you the way to make this virus go way is to let the low risk group out. When the govt sees a cluster they have to react quickly to locate the super spreaders and get them treated. They should also test and trace those with symptoms. As I said about a month ago. So now... the govt job is to make to react fast to clusters and remove the super spreaders to the hospital. That... is how you do it. You let the low risk live and you make the virus go away.
Lockdown forever... good strategy moron. Continue to destroy lives and futures in a very unscientific manner. Lock down everyone everywhere... so fucking brain dead... Anyone with a brain predicted the virus would spread when we leave lock down. Fauci knew what he was doing was useless with respect to extinguishing the virus... that is why he kept warning of second wave. The shutdown does not make the virus go away. The only sane way to do this is to let the low risk groups out. Then govt reacts. If there is a spread going on... avoid Super spreader events particularly indoor events by limiting the size of indoor gatherings in which people might be emitting a lot of particles... Temporarily Lock down local clusters... test and trace the symptomatic...get individual super spreaders out of the population and into treatment... if there are any in that cluster. This current spread proves lockdown of the low risk was a disaster. The Swedes predicted this issue. The paper I posted confirmed the more restrictive your lockdown the worse you post lockdown wave.
To cure cancer you just remove all the cancer and ideally precancerous cells from the body. All you have to do. So how does Jem's massive specificity dependent plan get implemented in detail? And apparently he wanted to do this four months or more back before superspreader theory was discussed (much known at all) and while Trump was saying it was all over before it started. Jem is a nob.
Texas Governor Halts New Phases of Reopening State’s Economy 12 minutes ago (Jun 25, 2020 11:54AM ET) (Bloomberg) -- Texas Governor Greg Abbott halted the phased reopening of the state’s economy, citing a surge in Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations. Under the executive order announced Thursday, businesses that were already permitted to open can continue to operate under existing occupancy limits. The next phases of reopening have been put on hold, according to a statement from the governor’s office. He also suspended elective surgeries to free hospital space. “The last thing we want to do as a state is go backwards and close down businesses,” Abbott said in the statement. “This temporary pause will help our state corral the spread until we can safely enter the next phase of opening our state for business.” The governor’s announcement, which followed a similar pause in North Carolina, came as Houston’s Covid-19 outbreak accelerated at an exponential pace that will swamp the city’s medical infrastructure by the Independence Day holiday, according to a leading disease specialist. Even as Houston-area intensive-care wards approach full capacity, the worst is yet to come because of “the huge amount of transmission going on in our community,” Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, said in an interview Thursday. Current trends in Harris County, which includes Houston, indicate the caseload will triple or quadruple by mid-July, Hotez said, citing modeling by the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia’s PolicyLab. Such a scenario would be “apocalyptic,” he said. “We can’t go there.” Houston sprawls over many miles of swampy southeast Texas, a landscape of freeways and shopping malls largely unhindered by zoning. It has a metropolitan area of about 7 million residents, who compose one of the most diverse communities in the nation. And like other major cities in the state, its mainly Democratic leaders have found themselves at odds with Abbott and Republicans who have diluted urban power in politics. Abbott was quick to follow the lead of President Donald Trump, encouraging businesses to operate despite the pandemic and forbidding mayors and county leaders from taking stringent measures to contain it. But the disease’s spread is increasingly dictating events. On Wednesday, the Texas Medical Center warned the region’s intensive-care capacity was quickly filling up and would soon force medical authorities to convert other facilities to ad hoc Covid-19 wards. Harris County officials said they are prepared to reopen a field hospital at a professional football stadium if so-called surge capacity shows signs of strain. Classic Epidemic The trajectory of new cases is “going vertical,” Hotez said. “That’s what epidemic diseases classically do.” Abbott’s suspension of elective surgeries affects Harris, Dallas, Bexar and Travis counties, according to a statement from the governor’s office. Zimmer Biomet, Stryker (NYSE:SYK) and HCA Healthcare (NYSE:HCA) were among the worst performers in the S&P 500 Health Care Index Thursday morning after the news broke. “These four counties have experienced significant increases in people being hospitalized due to Covid-19 and today’s action is a precautionary step to help ensure that the hospitals in these counties continue to have ample supply of available beds to treat Covid-19 patients,” Abbott said in the statement. The Texas Medical Center -- a cluster of hospitals, research facilities and medical schools south of downtown Houston -- can double its Covid-19 capabilities without overstretching staff or supply lines, Chief Executive Officer Bill McKeon said in an interview. Youth Factor ”Obviously, when we see numbers that are growing exponentially, that’s always a concern to us,” McKeon said. “But remember, capacity is like a giant bathtub. Sooner or later, if water goes unchecked and the faucets are filling, then at some point any place, even the biggest medical city in the world, will overflow.” The Medical Center is seeing more young patients admitted, which means they’re less likely to require intensive care, McKeon said. More concerning is that the trend probably indicates that young people aren’t practicing social distancing or masking up, whether because they’re socializing in crowded bars or have less ability to do so when they go to work, he said. “If people do not change their behavior and really take this seriously across the entire community, then that will be a problem in the future,” McKeon said. ©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
You're posting models from idiots that had it wrong from the start; on R0, mortality, etc. My ppl in Sweden fucked it sideways and that's empiricism. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/2...ers-tegnell-started-long-before-the-pandemic/ Sweden’s Coronavirus Failure Started Long Before the Pandemic
How ‘Superspreading’ Events Drive Most COVID-19 Spread As few as 10 percent of infected people may drive a whopping 80 percent of cases, in specific types of situations In late February about 175 executives from around the world came to the biotechnology company Biogen’s leadership conference in Boston. Over two days, attendees shook hands, talked among themselves and shared meals. Also in attendance: the new coronavirus. Several people at the event were unknowingly infected with the microbe that causes COVID-19, and it quickly spread among others there, who then brought it home. At least 99 people ended up sick in Massachusetts alone. Around the same time, the coronavirus was spreading among more than 100 people who went to a funeral in Albany, Ga. sparking an outbreak that soon led to the surrounding rural county posting one of the nation’s highest cumulative incidences of COVID-19. The next month a single individual with the disease infected 52 people during a two-and-a-half-hour choir practice in Washington State. Two people died. In Arkansas, an infected pastor and his wife passed the virus on to more than 30 attendees at church events over the course of a few days, leading to at least three deaths. And these new cases spread to 26 more people, at least one of whom died. As scientists have learned more about COVID-19, it has become clear that so-called superspreader incidents—in which one person infects a disproportionate number of other individuals—have played an oversized role in the transmission of the virus that causes the disease. The Boston conference and the funeral in Georgia were among several superspreader events that played “a notable role in the early U.S. spread of COVID-19,” according to a report by Anne Schuchat, principal deputy director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In fact, research on actual cases, as well as models of the pandemic, indicate that between 10 and 20 percent of infected people are responsible for 80 percent of the coronavirus’s spread. These numbers mean that preventing superspreader events could go a long way toward stopping COVID-19, says Samuel Scarpino, a network scientist who studies infectious disease at Northeastern University. Scientists have identified factors that catalyze such events, including large crowd sizes, close contact between people and confined spaces with poor ventilation. Current evidence suggests that it is mostly circumstances such as these, rather than the biology of specific individuals, that sets the stage for extreme spreading of the novel coronavirus. When describing how the SARS-CoV-2 virus spreads, epidemiologists not only use the average number of other people that one individual infects but also employ another key value called the dispersion factor, or “k.” This number describes how much a disease clusters. A small k generally means that a relatively small number of cases are responsible for transmissions, while a larger k indicates that transmissions are more evenly spread. In Hong Kong, researchers calculated that in more than 1,000 COVID-19 cases they examined, the value for k was 0.45. That value was higher than that of SARS or MERS—two previous viral outbreaks that featured superspreading—but much lower than that of the 1918 flu pandemic. In other words, SARS-CoV-2’s transmission is not as reliant on superspreading as SARs and MERS were but is far more dependent on it than influenza, Scarpino says. The novel coronavirus seems to primarily spread via respiratory droplets produced by an infected individual during coughing, sneezing, talking or breathing. The next person becomes infected by inhaling these droplets into their lungs or by getting them in the nose or mouth. If people got sick right away after they were infected, they might stay at home in bed, giving them few opportunities to transmit the virus. Instead individuals with COVID-19 are contagious before they have symptoms, says Lauren Ancel Meyers, executive director of the University of Texas at Austin COVID-19 Modeling Consortium. The CDC estimates that about 40 percent of transmissions occur before the infected person has any symptoms and that symptoms take an average of six days to begin. That time gives an infected individual a long window to come into contact with other people—and to perhaps get into a situation ripe for superspreading. Researchers have identified several factors that make it easier for superspreading to happen. Some of them are environmental. For instance, poorly ventilated indoor areas seem especially conducive to the virus’s spread. A preliminary analysis of 110 COVID-19 cases in Japan found that the odds of transmitting the pathogen in a closed environment was more than 18 times greater than in an open-air space. And the authors concluded that confined spaces could promote superspreader events. (The study has not yet been peer-reviewed.)Another preliminary preprint study, by researchers in London, examined clusters of COVID-19 cases and found that nearly all of them were indoor or indoor-outdoor settings. The largest clusters were found in indoor spaces such as nursing homes, churches, food-processing plants, schools, shopping areas, worker dormitories, prisons and ships. Unsurprisingly, another thing these superspreader venues have in common is that they are places where large numbers of people congregate. The more individuals you pile into one place, the greater the opportunity for the coronavirus to infect many people at once, Meyers says. “If you max out at five people, it will be very hard to have a superspreading event,” she adds. But as a group’s size increases, so does the risk of transmitting the virus to a wider cluster. A large group size also increases the chance that someone present will be infectious. Time matters too. The longer a group stays in contact, the greater the likelihood that the virus will spread among them. Exactly how much time someone needs to pick it up remains an unanswered question, says Syra Madad, a special pathogens expert at NYC Health + Hospitals. She adds that the benchmark used for risk assessment in her contact-tracing work is 10 minutes of contact with an infectious person, though the CDC uses 15 minutes as a guideline. Essential workers such as grocery store checkers and nursing home employees interact with large groups by necessity and work in situations primed for superpreading. Meyers says that if we want to contain COVID-19, we will have to find ways to protect them and make their workplaces less favorable to such events. What people are doing matters, too, because some activities seem to make it easier to spread respiratory gunk. We have all seen droplets go flying when someone coughs or sneezes. But even when you talk, you emit a “tremendous amount” of particles, says University of California, Davis, chemical engineer William Ristenpart. “Nobody thinks about them, but they’re there,” he says. Ristenpart’s team has found that speech emits more particles than normal breathing. And emissions also increase as people speak louder. Singing emits even more particles, which may partially explain the superspreader event at the Washington State choir practice. Breathing hard during exercise might also help the spread of COVID-19. Fitness dance classes held in small rooms with up to 22 students at a time were linked to 65 cases of the disease in South Korea. But yoga classes at one of the same facilities were not linked to any clusters. A study of COVID-19 clusters in Japan found cases connected to exercising in gyms, karaoke parties, cheering at clubs and holding conversations in bars, providing further evidence that these activities may aid transmission. Ristenpart and his colleagues have not yet confirmed that the particle emission changes they saw affect transmission of the novel coronavirus. Their study did not measure SARS-CoV2 itself. But the airborne particles are presumably important carriers of viral particles. The scientists also have found intriguing evidence that a small subset of people may behave as “speech superemitters”—individuals who consistently broadcast an order of magnitude more respiratory particles than their peers. “It is very difficult to identify who is going to be a superemitter ahead of time,” he says. “One of the superemitters was a very petite young woman. And I was a bigger, bulkier guy and was not a superemitter.” Sign up for Scientific American’s free newsletters. The evidence about superspreadering activities has led researchers to believe they are responsible for much of the new coronavirus’s transmission. “All of the data I’m seeing so far suggest that if you tamp down the superspreader events, the growth rate of the infections stops very, very quickly,” Scarpino says. “We saw in Seattle that there were at least a couple of introductions that did not lead to new cases”—implying that the virus can fade out if it is denied circumstances for spreading. But in the U.S.—where there have been nearly 2.16 million cases and more than 117,000 deaths—those situations may be on the rise. States are reopening businesses and activities, which means more people are coming in contact with one another in larger groups. So minimizing conditions that allow superspreading events to happen will be crucial for keeping COVID-19 in check. In Japan, health officials have advised people to avoid situations with the three C’s: closed spaces with poor ventilation, crowded spaces and close-contact settings. A virus’s ability to infect is not entirely a property of that pathogen, says Cristopher Moore, a computer scientist at the Santa Fe Institute who models virus-spreading events. “It’s a property of how the virus and human society interact,” he notes, and that’s something we have the power to change.
Herd immunity will occur soon for this strain. Other strains may emerge and then herd immunity will have to be created for that and the cycle will go on and on. Best let this thing spread and spread quickly.
I knew this was too complex for you. Maybe you need to put in more time. . You think the author of this study is an idiot. You know people in finance... This is when I became strident about the proper approach.... We discussed this paper here on ET from de Prado back in April. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3579712 ... Six weeks after becoming a pandemic, COVID-19 has caused over 150,000 deaths across 210 countries. Governments around the world have instituted universal lockdowns to curve the spread of this serious disease. While it is obvious that extended universal lockdowns have saved lives that otherwise would have been lost to COVID-19, they have also caused historical losses of livelihoods. Universal lockdowns are particularly detrimental to minorities and the working class, who have suffered the greatest job loss since the Great Depression. In some countries, unemployment carries the loss of access to health services, which is the opposite of what lockdowns intended to achieve. Hundreds of millions of citizens worldwide will endure the effects of universal lockdowns for years to come. Universal lockdowns are a blunt tool that should be used tactically, for brief periods of time. In this study, we introduce a new mathematical model (called K-SEIR) to simulate the outcomes of lockdowns, and help evaluate various exit strategies. We demonstrate that targeted lockdowns can achieve better outcomes than universal lockdowns, in terms of (1) saving lives, (2) protecting the most vulnerable in society (the elderly, the poor), and (3) preventing the depletion of medical resources. There is not one solution that fits all. National governments must devise tailored targeted lockdowns, based on their particular circumstances. We hope that the K-SEIR model will help governments learn from the mistakes of the COVID-19 crisis management, and help prepare society for COVID-20.