No vaccine means that herd immunity will never be achieved. "Natural herd immunity" for COVID-19 is a myth. This means that the only way to eliminate the disease (without a vaccine) is to follow New Zealand's strict lockdown example across the globe.
I'm gong to have to put you on ignore soon. As you warn people, I'll warn you. Up your game sonny, you are a boring lightweight. They gave those directions in Sweden, a place most though hey if anyone can do this they can. And then weeks into it they found care home workers walking around with no protection picking their noses. You just need one don't give a shit employee or a manager who does nothing to let it in. Bad staff need to be trained and means to remove them that circumvent the normal civil process legislated for. And a million other things. You can't work the problem, you don't have any model for how it would be done beyond everyone is magically responsible and clever. Real word, you got nothing.
The way I work ignore is that if the guy *ever* utters something intelligent I will never ignore him even it the intelligent part is a minute fraction of their total traffic. Just fyi. Dr. Fauci has said there is a problem with vaccine development amd it may take "some time". I'm not entirely surprised having read previously that this virus has traits that are "HIV-like". If a successful vaccine for Covid is developed maybe it will advance our progress against HIV.
In order for every individual, or nearly every individual, to do what is required to completely eliminate a disease this contagious from the planet, we would need a certain minimum level of "Natural herd intelligence." (And this doesn't address a possible repeat of the factors that first introduced the virus into the environment.) As you have seen in these threads, and on the news, we are nowhere near the required minimum "Natural herd intelligence" to pull it off.
They will have to go with a multi-strain immunization I expect and that will also make it really very complicated. "If a virus evolves in a bat meaning it can prosper in a filthy animal with an entirely next level immune system, its a tough adaptable little bastard of a virus" This is what I was told 20 years ago going caving in Thailand when being trained on the importance of using masks in areas of the caves. Histoplasmosis (fungus) and Marburg (virus) I believe were the main worry but I remember the guy being clear there were other rare and savage viruses you did not want, people had died of so don't dawdle in bat colony sections. I just this second looked and of course now in 2020 thanks to Covid-19 there is loads of bat research. https://www.sciencenews.org/article/bats-immune-system-viruses-ebola-marburg-people Worth a read, why bats make viruses worse. The guy 20 years ago was on the money.
In imaginary world. the late lockdowns vs early. No nice steroids for the already dead. https://www.ft.com/content/7ecd5ded-9b90-4052-b849-0e153f701e1f
Numbers look really good for Sweden. Thanks for posting. They will be ahead of the countries in nomalcy as we continue on.
Yeah, herd immunity not a thing that happened though.. and now nobody wants them to come and visit. Oh and in May they said 7% economic shrinkage. The Danes think it could be up to 6% for them so... We can be selfishly grateful they gave it a go, at least we know now.