The gutfeel swing trade

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by Zwaen, Apr 21, 2024.

  1. Well other than a little pop, if you are looking for new ath's I would be prepared to wait months, maybe to the end of the year, even without a correction and it just followed the trendline.

    upload_2024-4-22_9-58-23.png


    The stock looks like it has had steady growth so that's good.
     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2024
    #21     Apr 22, 2024
  2. PPC

    PPC


    What would worry me is that recently the stock gaped down overnight by around 25%. That’s a huge gap, and it is a sign of weakness. In addition, the stock will have to deal with supply (remaining sellers) on its way up.

    Can the stock go into a parabolic rally? Of course it can, nobody knows what will happen. If the stock meets your own trading setup (backtested edge) that you’re familiar with, then it should be a valid signal for you.

    I'm sharing a different perspective, everyone traders differently, so do not let me or anyone else to talk you into/out of your own trades. :)

    Only trade the good setups that you’re familiar with, and don't force it if you don't clearly see the pattern that is not a part of your own edge.



    Regarding your ABC, I think you're forcing (extremely subjective) Elliot Wave onto everything, and are seeing things that are not there.

    Regarding my comment about buying calls (melting ice cubes), long calls would be a good choice providing that he’s going to be good with timing precision, the magnitude of the move up will be large and rapid, and when buying the calls the IV needs to be relatively cheap, and the expected IV should preferably be steady and raising.

    If he doesn’t get those things above right then the long calls will most likely become melting ice cubes (losing value).
     
    #22     Apr 23, 2024
    Zwaen likes this.
  3. No man, your chart is just plain wrong. People use trading ranges when they don't know how to chart. It's lazy.

    upload_2024-4-23_3-58-54.png

    (a) could be 4 but likely we are going to see sideways movement here...not just a "trading range" but measured moves. The red line is the invalidation level. This is the weekly so could be in for a long correction.

    upload_2024-4-23_4-12-56.png
    upload_2024-4-23_4-15-56.png
    236 of Wave 1. Statistically, 73% of Wave 2's will retrace to at least .5 to .618 and 15% as far as 100% of W1.

    To me this doesn't look typical....even though wave 2's can retrace 100% of wave 1's. I wouldn't even look at going long until I get more information.
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2024
    #23     Apr 23, 2024
  4. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    $292.50 Up $11
    Great play Zwaen
     
    #24     Apr 23, 2024
    Zwaen likes this.
  5. Zwaen

    Zwaen

    Thanks, but no honors
    1) I needed ‘confirmation’ of a certain savant ;)
    2) The call is/was for an extended trend, so in 6-12m it should have outperformed qqq. Today is nice but a blip and it could go anywhere *

    *I know you ofcourse know this
     
    #25     Apr 23, 2024
  6. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    Anywhere but down. The sellers are gone. These chart readers lack common sense. And they certainly lack a pencil. Blue skies ahead.
     
    #26     Apr 23, 2024
    Picaso likes this.
  7. Disclaimer: If you enter this trade (see below) and loose money, shame on you! -- You should "own" your own trades.
    More babble: IFF one expects PANW to reach a new high in 6 months, the following option position could be appropriate for someone (not me as I have no reliable crystal ball).
    Beware, just took this after hours, so prices may not be correct. Risk is less than owning outright, and the position can be done for credit, making use of unutilized margin. IFF you are correct, the payout should be better than a simple long position.
    An example entry order from TOS.

    BUY +<n> 2/-1/1 CUSTOM PANW 100 15 NOV 24/15 NOV 24/15 NOV 24 350/350/290 CALL/PUT/PUT @-2.55 LMT MARK

     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2024
    #27     Apr 27, 2024
    Zwaen likes this.
  8. On what planet is the TA telling you that this will be hitting aths in 6 months?


    English plz
     
    #28     Apr 27, 2024
  9. FYI: IFF -> IF and only iF!

    Pic of risk profile of the option position for a 1-lot. November expiry, using 350 strike for synthetic long and extra long call, 290 PUT strike for downside risk limit.
    upload_2024-4-27_8-38-17.png
     
    #29     Apr 27, 2024
  10. If you're long two calls, at the same strike that your short one put then why not just be long one call?
    But you are selling a deep in the money put which could be exercised at any time.
     
    #30     Apr 27, 2024
    stepandfetchit likes this.