The Grinch Who Crashed Wall Street... Santa Selloff

Discussion in 'Trading' started by KCalhoun, Dec 2, 2021.

  1. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    For the record, he made similar predictions in early April 2020 when the market appeared to be recovering...and did recover with a vengeance. We'll see. Stay nimble or stay hedged enough that you don't get burned badly on a one-way bet in either direction.
     
    #41     Dec 10, 2021
  2. Nine_Ender

    Nine_Ender

    Seriously though the chances that all those etfs double in the stated time frame is less then 1% imo, and he's "confident" that it will happen. That's a little delusional in nature. That's the thing about day traders you need to know your lane if you don't research and carefully monitor say Oil don't think you can nail down where it's going in in a couple of months.
     
    #42     Dec 10, 2021
  3. Nine_Ender

    Nine_Ender

    Ken's ETFs today so far ( note that Friday's are often the most bearish day of the week ) :

    UVXY -6.6%, KOLD -6.2%, SCO -3.2%, TZA + 1.9%, SQQQ -1.6%
     
    #43     Dec 10, 2021
  4. KCalhoun

    KCalhoun

    I just rebought UVXY TZA SQQQ SCO KOLD aftermarket, I'd scaled down during recent drop. I add at 2day highs, scale out at 2day lows. Many inverses like UVXY I buy low sell high like I did when UVXY was 24 recently. I think 15ish here may be a good re-entry price.
     
    #44     Dec 10, 2021
  5. deaddog

    deaddog

    Why buy in the aftermarket on a Friday? FOMO?
    All sorts of shit could happen over the weekend.
     
    #45     Dec 10, 2021
  6. Nine_Ender

    Nine_Ender

    Ok that's a personal system not sure if it will work well or not on various etfs. The energy stocks I trade are no longer correlated very tightly with commodity prices suggested the value play in Canada is finally being recognized ( as long as WTI stays above $60 most are highly profitable $70+ they are cash flow machines with their fixed balance sheets ).
     
    #46     Dec 10, 2021
    KCalhoun likes this.
  7. KCalhoun

    KCalhoun

    Right, so I'm long inverses, shorting the market.... between today's cpi and next Wednesday Powell I expect some selling pressure to return by next Friday, like we had a couple weeks ago.

    TZA FAZ relatively strong among inverses, small cap and finance weakness is bearish lead indicator. Buying 52week low near here VXX UVXY is usually a winning swingtrade to prepare for inevitable VIX spike.

    Only stock I like here is F
     
    #47     Dec 10, 2021
  8. deaddog

    deaddog

    I'm questioning why Friday after market?
    Why not Monday premarket or Monday after the market opens. Would that not be less risky?
     
    #48     Dec 11, 2021
  9. KCalhoun

    KCalhoun

    Yes, you're right.... in general it's best to be cash into weekends, or at least to not initiate new trades Friday. Since news can break either way.

    In this situation, I started small new trades, because I think risk/reward especially for UVXY is favorable here. I just bought 200 UVXY, and less for the others. Buying VIX support, selling into strength has done well. It's near support here.

    Big picture I'm anticipating a minor pullback next week esp. if Powell talks rate hikes bc high inflation Wednesday, so I'm putting on small bear starter positions now.

    VIX is near 15 support here at 19, had spiked to near 30 recently
    https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/VIX

    See 1-month UVXY
    https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/UVXY
    My stop is 13.9, just under 14.3 52-week low. Exit target 19. Risk =1.5, reward=4

    But mostly I daytrade, in up to 1100 shares at a time UVXY during market drops. :D
     
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2021
    #49     Dec 11, 2021
    deaddog likes this.
  10. Nine_Ender

    Nine_Ender

    The market reaction to the CPI number and Friday being relatively strong compared to normal suggests we aren't likely near a market sell off this month. That being said, UVXY seems like a good trading vehicle short term but SCO I think your read remains bad on Oil price moves. I think you trade too many of these and are underestimating the need to stay on top of some of them if you ever want to hold sizeable positions overnight.

    Day trading and swing trading ( my definition ) require different skills and approach. We can approach the other area occasionally when windows of opportunity show up that cross over. KOLD for example you found a good breakout trade but perhaps didn't cash in as fully as you should have from a swing trading perspective. Which may be because it's an unreliable trade most of the time.
     
    #50     Dec 11, 2021
    KCalhoun likes this.