when it all started 18 months ago people believed it was going to be a 1 year "correction" and then it would resolve. now it's a 2 year+ correction before things "go back to normal" Next year it will be 3-4 years... I think things have changed for good. There was juts too much free and easy credit washing around and many peoples spending power was built on credit. That's gone now for a long time. The banks have to take some blame. They were prectically shoving money down customers throats. As long as they got their bonuses they din't give a rats ass who could afford it or not. I do not know....things aren't getting better in the UK. It's pretty bleak. I thoguht 2010 would be the recovery...if it is I do not think it's going to be a powerful one and it'll be late 2010 at the earliest. I doubt it actually. you know the USA spneds more on bloody arms/ defence etc than social,healthcare.education put togethr. Maybe it's time the world stopped spending so much on missiles, defence shields etc (billions $$$) and put that money into the economies?
One of America's problems that isn't talked about much. The USA has had excessive military expendatures for a long time. In one sense, it has allowed us to be The Big Dog. OTOH other countries have not spent such sums on military... and instead put that money into their economies. I think we've missed the boat on that one... As for "Greatest Depression" and recovery in the US... 1. USA especially hard-hit by globalization. We've lost many middle-class wage jobs... most of which will be replace with near minimum wage jobs or no job at all. BIG adjustment still to be made here. 2. Fed sees how excessive stimulus can stem economic decline (sure, so long as you're not paying attention to the debt created). Suspect we won't have much in the way of real recovery, so a few more stimulus packages to follow in the next few years... each trying to "give it a bit more time for growth to catch on"... but it never will... and the debts will continue to mount. This could be the "end game" for the USA economically as we've known it... end to the $USD also. Likely bankruptcy crisis in the next 5-10 years, but wave after wave of stimulus keeps the balls in the air until then.
..................................................... This is quite insightful and correct... One also knows by basic math.... When policies are enforced that create bigger govt./legal largess vs that of the economy....one knows that this has never worked.... The math is simple.... What is the nucleus of the economy.... V = I + D I = Income D = Debt V = Valuations If govt. forced the equation negatively.....the economy will move negatively.... Since banks are so important....what do they need ? Their problem at the moment is bad asset valuation ie Japan.... What to do ? Create many positive valuations that are sustainable....to offset and eliminate the bad.... This is reality.... Thus reduce govt. size.....create many sustainable valuations by tax structure.....and improve the marketing of these valuations.... Hence a 10/5 Ctax only.....and a new tax free direct access de-fragmented world wide securities exchange....the seed of wealth and innovation.... This means enablement such that when one logs in....one is just as comfortable trading China stocks as US stocks....any securities asset class worldwide....in the language and currency of choice....
Who cares what's coming, if it goes up then make money if it goes down then make some more money. If you can't do that you are like all the other people with predictions without putting their money where their mouth is. Obama and Bush are all in together. They use Cheney on TV to help Obama with his progress base. It's all a big game and they use the naive so the people don't try to overthrow the government. The system has 2 parties that are run by the same people. I do believe the GOP is a better party because my family was all part of the GOP.
I think the greatest depression is several years away. Let's not forget the politics. The stock bubble is being re-inflated to save the current administration (payback for bailouts). Come January, in the State of the Onion address, the president will proclaim how he saved us from economic disaster and how the stock market is above 10K, blah blah. Next year, stimulus (plural) will be implemented to keep the economy buoyant to help prevent a massive shift in power come next November's election. If the libs survive next November, then two more years of disastrous policies will be implemented. Stimulus will continue to be implemented, with unsustainable debt being piled on. Then the other shoe will drop... This scenario is definitely a guess (so please don't flame me). I am presenting this scenario as one possibility to help form what appears to be a right shoulder on a massive head and shoulders topping pattern on the monthly Dow. I think we could see the Dow going sideways for the next 2 or 3 years between 10 and 11K to help form the pattern.
Also reduce taxes on Corporations. The US has the 2nd highest Corporate Tax rate in the world. Ireland got their economy out of a protracted funk by offering huge tax incentives to Corporations who invested there. The same can happen in the US but without inviting foreignors in. Simply give sweeping tax breaks to Corporations, and provide startup capital to new small businesses. Allow Americans to fix America. Politicians won't be able to do it.
I have only been talking about the next depression since 1993, after reading NAFTA and Chuck Harder, and even more since 2006, after reading Shiff. Anyone still in the path of the steamroller, and failing to profit from safe investments, does not deserve helpful advise contrary to their media-fed brain. They are no better than buy-and-hold stock owners who have zero exit strategy. As for government fixing anything, that is a contradiction. Those of you who voted for "change" sure got it... it's alot worse now than a year ago. You should have specified change for the BETTER, but Hussein wasn't asking you, was he?