The Great Commodity Crash of '08 is Near: Go Long

Discussion in 'Trading' started by ByLoSellHi, May 31, 2008.

  1. Go long solid companies that have been hammered by, rather than benefiting from, high commodity prices.

    Go long automakers, airlines, steel makers, textile manufacturers, distressed financial companies, the best of breed homebuilders, and solid retailers that have been bloodies into pulp....go long.

    There are so many articles being published now in the mainstream press that this is the 'noisy red flag' blowing in the wind, and if you can't position yourself to profit from this, you might as well look for a 9 to 5 job.

    Peak Oil my ass. This is the 1919 World Series Fix of the Financial Markets.

    Do you think it's random chance that all these investigations are being published by the mainstream press by patsy journalists, and that Congress has finally held (and is holding ongoing) formal investigatory proceedings, and their hauling the likes of Soros before Congress?

    "Prosecutions Possible

    Michael Greenberger, a former head of the CFTC's Division of Trading and Markets, said the agency is likely to find that some investment banks, hedge funds and wealthy individuals manipulated futures prices. Traders may face prosecution if they reported false prices or made offsetting trades designed to manipulate the market, he said.

    ``There will be a lot of administrative and criminal litigation before the sun sets on this,'' said Greenberger, who teaches law at the University of Maryland. "'
  2. Hmmm.... No doubt it is a Commodity bubble but you really think Builders and Automakers woes are due to commodity prices?? No doubt if Commodities tank (unlikely until rates are AGRESSIVELY raised) Wall street will want us to forget the real reasons for our recession.

    The authorities are simply looking for scapegoats to pin it all on. They have engineered this rampant inflation and want none of the consequences. Raise rates and commodities will go poof!.
  3. taodr


    Read Fed Fishers latest speech. He is insinuating things have to get tough. Odds are high interest rates will tank everything.
  4. If commodities go bust, especially oil, agriculturals and industrial metals, it will take an enormous amount of pressure off central banks to raise rates.
  5. this has been a helluva first leg up..
    and we likely will correct..
    and the consolidate..

    But don't forget to get back on the boat...

    Long run (5 years) we are going ALOT higher in the commodity sector (PM's, Energies, Ags)
  6. you're wrong. No debate. My P&L says your wrong. I went long FDG, SQM, and PBR and short CAL, PMI, and ABK....not giving my money back, either.

    Oil will dip at some point, and I'm scaling back my exposure. Oil Service stocks overreact to changes in futures. But long term I'm LONG.

    Congress is full of morons. You think they signed the new corn subsidies bill cuz they understand economics?
  7. Oil and the market rise/fall together. When oil falls and the rises many sectors also fall which drags down the S&P. You can't be short oil and long the market.
  8. dollar up, commodities down, equities down. I have said it multiple time, starting a few weeks, and the prices are saying I am right.
  9. Market doesn't like the strong dollar. Sometimes it will buck the trend, but S&P 500 multinationals depend on a cheap dollar for export revenues.
  10. So if dollar is up, what do you think will happen to stocks following your analysis of dollar impact multinationals?
    #10     Jun 2, 2008