I like your posts most of the time so please don't take this as an offense. But...... When is the last time the general public as a whole called a top? Everyone I talk to about anything remotely related to trading/economics they mention how you shouldn't buy gold because its a bubble with this 'matter of fact' attitude. IMO idk how gold tops until that perception changes.
Excellent point. I remember the housing boom and I didnt hear anyone calling that a bubble(except myself and people looked at me like I was either speaking chinese, or I was smoking peyote when I told them housing was a bubble.) Today I get those same looks when I say gold is going to $5k+, or silver is going to $100. It sounds like utter nonsense to joe public. From regular people that do not keep up with economics, I hear all the time that silver is going back to $5 and they only say that because it was stuck there for some 20 years. Or that gold is going back to $400 because it too was there for some 20 years. I remember my parents thinking about buying gold in the 70s. They didnt know much about economics and they thought gold was too expensive at $100 per oz because all their lives, it had been set at $35. They figured they missed the boat even though they really wanted to buy some gold. Today is much the same thing. People think gold is expensive at $1,250 per oz. Its not. And silver is insanely cheap at $20 per oz. Most people will not realize that until silver is $50 and gold is $2000.
I think allot of people do not really understand gold investing. They assume it is "just like any other investment choice, which is wrong. People in general operate over a relatively short time horizon. In the grand scheme of things, our perspective is naturally limited. We assume that society will be the same as the future as in the past, because most times, this is a useful asumption. Why invest a bit in things like gold and silver? Weimar Republic: A civilized, advanced nation. Who expected what ended up happening? If you had predicted it, you would have been considered "crazy". A fiat currency colapse is possible. That is the reality. We hope it does not happen, yet it has happened in the past, and it will happen again in the future. Regardless of if you believe in the truth of bible stories, the story of Noah's arch is a very useful metaphor. They laughed when Noah prepared for the flood... yet when the flood came, those that laughed perished, Noah was fine. Now, is gold and silver investment the ONLY thing one should have a bit of to prepair for possible hard times? Of course not. However, it is a globally held commodity that can be readily and easily traded. Other good items are Bullets, a emergency food supply, etc. Just a bit of wealth in these items is a very good idea. Most people are so blindly arrogant they just laugh. Well, a dirty bomb is possible in a major city, or a biological attack. THe government has already set up procedures to quarantine entire areas in case of emergency. Urban dweller: IF this was to happen, would you starve? would you be dependant on FEMA (laugh, laugh). I guess i know a bit about this because I have relatives who live in a so-called "developing" nation. To them, gold and silver is a necessity similar to having overseas bank accounts. Having items you can "grab and run with" will make it easier if disaster does strike. Don't fool yourself. If it does not happen in our lifetime, at least you can be prepared. You can teach your children and thus maximize the odds your progeny will be among those who survive. Now if you want to speculate on changing prices, well, gold, not gold, who cares just a trading decision. That is NOT the reason to old physical gold, however.
"Kennedy later claimed he knew the rampant stock speculation of the late 1920s would lead to a crash. It is said that he knew it was time to get out of the market when he received stock tips from a shoe-shine boy." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_P._Kennedy,_Sr. History may not repeat, but it certainly rhymes...
Nice analogy. Wall Street is driven by greed and quick profits. Most CEOs just want to pump up the books so they can have their cake "annual bonuses" and eat it too "retention bonuses"!! How in the world do senior executives get bonuses when their companies' value have dropped 50% over year? Yes, gold is very volatile. But it may be one of the hard assets to retain it's value. There's ALWAYS people wanting gold. Like Robert Kiyosaki said, gold will preserve your wealth; but silver will make you rich! I am definitely buying some silver!