Let's say you identify an early stage bull market. Your analysis and past experience indicates that the market will go up at least 300% in the next 5-10 years, maybe 500%+. However, it will almost certainly have 2 or 3 corrections and short (3-9 month) bear markets of 20-40% during this period, and will eventually end with a huge blowoff top and then fall 75%+ like the nasdaq in 2000-2002. Assume that you will be able to identify the ultimate top roughly when it happens - i.e. you won't be able to sell the exact top, but will know that it's getting very risky. And assume that you will only have a 50% hit rate on identifying the smaller bear markets/corrections - both when they start and end. Overall, you think you have an 80% chance of being correct about the huge move. And you have a clear stop, which will get triggered if you are wrong. If you are wrong, you anticipating losing about 30% from the current market price, before your stop is triggered. So, you will win 80% of the time, and when you are right you make 300%+, when wrong you lose 30%. How would you trade it? Firstly, how much would you risk losing on this trade, as a % of your total net worth? Second, what strategy would you use to trade it? Would you just buy, sit on it for 3, 5, 7, 10 years, then sell everything once you see the warning signs of the ultimate top, and simply ride out the 20-40% corrections and bear markets? Or would you try and time the corrections and mini-bears, even though you might not be able to do so reliably, and might risk missing a big chunk of the move by getting out too soon, or exiting at a good time but failing to get back in? Maybe you'd put some money in as a "buy and hold", and then have another chunk where you add some size into the 20-40% corrections to juice your returns? If so, how much would you allocate to each? What would be your approach?