The game behind BOJ intervention, USD vs JPY

Discussion in 'Forex' started by tsfx, Oct 17, 2023.

  1. TrAndy2022

    TrAndy2022

    Are you still USDJPY short ? I mean they make fresh new highs every hour today. What do you see for tomorrow ? The big drop right away ?
     
    #31     Oct 31, 2023
  2. tsfx

    tsfx

    Where did you see i'm shorting USDJPY? I said you're better off trading usd short against something else than jpy because of negative carry reasons. I'm short chfjpy and long us10y bonds etc, i talked about these trade ideas in other threads i created.
     
    #32     Oct 31, 2023
  3. TrAndy2022

    TrAndy2022

    Do you have no stop then for your CHFJPY position ? If yes, where is your stop please ? I mean today the CHFJPY short is very hurting. Do you have no stops ?
     
    #33     Oct 31, 2023
  4. tsfx

    tsfx

    #34     Oct 31, 2023
  5. TrAndy2022

    TrAndy2022

    You should look to implement some stops. It can be too frustrating to trade without any stops. Especially for the longer run, even you have very low leverage.

    Where is your profit target for the CHFJPY short position ? I mean the recent ow yesterday at 165 level was not bad or ? Why did you not exit, do you really trade that longterm like position trading for months on one trade really ?
     
    #35     Oct 31, 2023
  6. tsfx

    tsfx

    USDJPY completely detached from US10Y yield today. let's see how far this stop hunt goes :)


    usdjpyus10y.png
     
    #36     Oct 31, 2023
  7. TrAndy2022

    TrAndy2022

    But if you trade without any stops and your profit target is not reached, because nobody can win all the time like having a 100% win rate, what do you do ? And when ? Nobody is perfect on each trade, I mean.

    And I see your graphics. And you are right. But what is when the US 10 years goes above 5% significant. Then it come again in harmony. Just to speak about your open position, is there any more detailed plan (as tactic when it goes wrong) here ?
     
    #37     Oct 31, 2023
  8. tsfx

    tsfx

    I'm sensing you're long jpy right now and looking for guidance because you're sweating about the recent move. If you can't trade without leverage you'll lose anyway. Either with a placed stop or with an implied stop (mc).

    I have different strategies that i deploy and i can't guide you becuse there really isnt a logical place to put stops right now.
     
    #38     Oct 31, 2023
  9. TrAndy2022

    TrAndy2022

    Sorry, I have a plan. And I do respect stops. If you have no stops I cannot help you. It is not good to have no kind of stops. You should backtest more and see where it is best to do so. Or at what point you will wake completely.

    And no, I am not sweating at all. I follow my plans. There is no way I just watch until it moves to infinity against me... that would be the case if I had no stops, then I would sweat a lot. But I don't. I am not you. And I am not looking for any guidance just understanding what you are doing, if that is really senseful (to me). But it is not the case. Sorry again.
     
    #39     Oct 31, 2023
  10. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    USDJPY appears to be breaking out to new (sustainable) highs. Not stop hunting at all. Touched once, rejected second time, cleanly breaking through the third:-

    ! UJ.png

    Maybe it returns to SOC soon but its not looking very likely ATM.
     
    #40     Oct 31, 2023
    tsfx likes this.