The future of the USA - 2012-2016: An insolvent and ungovernable United States

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Andromeda, Dec 19, 2011.

  1. The future of the USA - 2012-2016: An insolvent and ungovernable United States

    In this issue, our team therefore gives its anticipations regarding the future of the United States for the 2012-2016 period. We recall that since 2006 and the first GEAB issues, LEAP/E2020 described the global systemic crisis as a phenomenon characterizing the end of the world as we know it since 1945, marking the collapse of the American pillar on which this world order has rested for nearly seven decades. Since 2006, we had identified the period 2011-2013 as that during which the “Dollar Wall” on which the power of the United States sits would fall apart. Summer 2011, with the cut in the United States’ credit rating by S & P, marked an historic turning point and confirmed that the “impossible” (27) was indeed in the process of coming true. Therefore today, it seems essential to provide our subscribers with a clear anticipatory vision of what awaits the “pillar” of the world before the crisis at the point when the crisis moved into “top gear” in summer 2011 (28).

    Thus, according to LEAP/E2020, the 2012 election year, which opens against the backdrop of economic and social depression, complete paralysis of the federal system (29), strong rejection of the traditional two-party system and a growing questioning of the relevance of the Constitution, inaugurates a crucial period in the history of the United States. Over the next four years, the country will be subjected to political, economic, financial and social upheaval such as it has not known since the end of the Civil War which, by an accident of history, started exactly 150 years ago in 1861. During this period, the US will be simultaneously insolvent and ungovernable, turning that which was the “flagship” of the world in recent decades into a “drunken boat”.

    To make the complexity of the current process understandable, our team has chosen to organize its anticipations around three key areas:

    US institutional deadlock and the break-up of the traditional two-party system
    The unstoppable spiral of recession/depression/inflation
    The breakdown of the US socio-political fabric

    The unstoppable US economic spiral : recession/depression/inflation (extract)
    In fact, the United States ends 2011 in a state of weakness unmatched since the Civil War. They practice no significant leadership at international level. The confrontation between geopolitical blocs is sharpening and they find themselves confronted by almost all the world’s major players: China, Russia, Brazil (and in general almost all of South America) and now Euroland (30). Meanwhile, they cannot control unemployment where the true rate stagnates at around 20% against the backdrop of an unabated and unprecedented reduction in the labour force (which has now fallen to its 2001 level (31)).

    Real estate, the foundation of US household wealth along with the stock market, continues to see prices drop year after year despite desperate attempts by the Fed (32) to facilitate lending to the economy through its zero interest rate policy. The stock market has resumed its downward path artificially interrupted by two Quantitative Easings in 2009 and 2010. US banks, whose balance sheets are much more heavily loaded with financial derivative products than their European counterparts (33), are dangerously approaching a new series of bankruptcies of which MF Global is a but a precursor, indicating the absence of procedural controls or alarms three years after the collapse of Wall Street in 2008 (34).

    Poverty is gradually increasing in the country every day, where one in six Americans now depend on food stamps (35) and one in five children has experienced periods of living on the streets (36). Public services (education, social, police, highways...) have been significantly reduced across the country to avoid city, county, or state bankruptcies. The success with which the revolt of the middle class and the young (TP and OWS) has met is explained by these objective developments. And the coming years will see these trends get worse.

    The weakness of the 2011 US economy and society is, paradoxically, the result of the “rescue” attempts carried out in 2009/2010 (stimulus plans, QE ...) and the worsening of a pre-2008 “normal” situation. 2012 will mark the first year of deterioration from an already badly impaired situation (37).

    SMEs, households, local authorities (38), public services,... have no more “padding” to soften the blow of the recession into which the country has fallen again (39). We anticipated that 2012 would see a 30% drop in the Dollar against major world currencies. In this economy, which imports the bulk of its consumer goods, this will result in a corresponding decrease in US household purchasing power against a backdrop of double-digit inflation.

    The TP and OWS have, therefore, a bright future ahead of them since the wrath of 2011 will become the rage in 2012/2013.
  2. maybe if we stop helping the poor and helpless they'll stop having babies. Oh no he didn't!

    Instead of just giving poor people aid with nothing expected in return why don't we teach them how to fit into and contribute to a civilized society. God I'm such an elitist sometimes I give my self the creeps.

    In fact I was all excited when Obama became president because I thought he was going to try and motivate poor minorities to be responsible for themselves. But I guess they just considered him an uncle tom and then is cabinet probably told him don't go there so that was that.

    I'll gladly take the other side of the America is doomed trade because if I lose it won't matter.
  3. maybe if we stop helping the poor and helpless they'll stop having babies. Oh no he didn't!

    Whatever the government subsidizes, you get more of. Apparently few people in the US or EU electorate can grasp the fact that if you subsidize irresponsible behaviour - surprise - you get more irresponsible behaviour.
  4. BSAM


    As long as Americans refuse to take people like Ron Paul seriously, you can bet that we are heading south.
  5. There are lots of people that are just not noble of character. They just want to be at the trough pigging out... The Left LOVES Keynesian policies and bailouts, it's a chance for tons of money to go through their hands and for tons of it to fall into the laps of their friends/relatives/cohorts/loyal voters... The right LOVES keynesian s$^t for the same reason. The right LOVES wars, their pols get their $ from the Military side of the equation... Lots of voters LOVE Keynesian s$%t because they want their freebies....
  6. jem


    ungovernable is democrat code for the democrats can't keep spending.
  7. Hi troll. Real estate prices are above pre-bubble trend and along their pre-bubble inflation adjusted trend

    Compared to other countries with regimes that you possibly admire and like - judging from your tone that is - US is doing very well.

    The rest do not even deserve a comment because they demonstrate a total lack of understanding of global economics.

    Bye troll.
  8. Much like the market is guided by fear, so is this forum.
  9. Societal collapse is pretty much baked in at this point. Since the progression from a world leader into a third world banana republic is so gradual (can last for half a lifetime), most people are slowly conditioned towards accepting this lowered standard of living. When things happen in an instant, the effect is far more shocking, but the Federal Reserve/Govt with it's "slow boil" tactics to cushion the collapse of this economy and all of the fallout is simply a means to calm the social are/were the extended unemployment benefits, the 46 million on foodstamps, the lax policies towards the legal squatters in foreclosed homes, etc, etc...
  10. Make the math work, idiot.

    Or do pollyana's such as yourself think some unicorn will shit skittles and suddenly we'll be producing 500,000 jobs a month, real estate will bounce back and the crisis in Europe will be solved.

    We're past the "self help" Tony Robbins dream your way to riches part of the curve.
    #10     Dec 19, 2011