Only if price reacts at a level does it become important. When there is no reaction disregard that level. Say after a few trips and days price starts reacting to that level again you look to the left to see any previous congestions. Dynamic price means we won't and can't know in advance whether a level is going to have a reaction. This is one reason scribblers appear random and noncommittal to other traders who revel in the deceptive comfort of imagined certainty. Gringo
Sorry, but I barely have time to trade this time of year, much less re-address this topic. It's not complex. Just follow the rules. The only people who post publicly about this and who are also successful with it are Gringo and 40D, but then they follow the rules (the rest who are successful with it prefer not to post publicly, for obvious reasons). I don't understand most of what's posted publicly, so I can't be of much if any help. As for 30, I don't know what you mean by "breakout trade". A supply line is broken and one shorts the first retracement. That's that.
As far as I know, no one who has studied the pdf from beginning to end AND studied W's course AND read all my threads has any trouble with this. I have asked those who claim to have done all this and still don't understand it to open journals so that I can address their issues individually, but even those who actually open journals abandon them in short order, so I no longer ask. Therefore, those to whom the auction market remains a mystery really ought to investigate indicators and automate their trading. This approach is not for everyone. Or follow the trading plan of one of the trolls. If any of them ever post one.
The thing is that also from Fortydraws posts I got the impression that specially immediately after the open the breakout trade of a range oftentimes offers opportunities. What I think is that it is maybe all about the defintion of a retracement or reversal or using even shorter bar periods. But in terms of the example there was a failure at the top of the range and a successful breakout trade. The question is if one would see the bar following the test to the upside as a reversal signal? In this case as so often breakout, reversal or even retracement come together. Needless to say that there were other great opportunities after the price left the range... But the general question is if these kinds of breakouts as in the example shown are also included in the SLA methodology. I know that the drill is to wait for the break of the line and then take the retracement. The background of that question is that I feel the need to "fine tune" my test scenarios...
You are of course using a 1m chart rather than the 5m chart presented earlier. This alters the landscape. The 1m chart will offer more opportunities than a 5m. A 15m chart may not provide any at all, at least on an intraday basis. In the case of the 1m chart, the move up past 35 is not quite so parabolic; there are at least two balancing periods on the way up. Once that line is broken, a retracement occurs at the far-left edge of your rectangle. That's the entry. I'm going to cross-post this here because not everyone is interested in others' journals and because it is central to the whole "developing a trading plan" process: Trading plans invariably become egocentric. A few traders get past that and move on to a different level, but most of those who begin the process of developing a trading plan do not (most traders, of course, don't begin at all). Because the process is egocentric, the chief concerns are where do I enter, where do I exit, what should my target be, what should my stop be, how much risk can I tolerate, and so on. The character of the market itself is a secondary issue at best. What is paramount is how the market can serve the ego rather than the other way around. The market couldn't care less about the trader's entries and exits and stops. The market couldn't care less about what the trader wants. The market couldn't care less about the trader's personality. The market functions in a certain way. It has a certain structure. If a trader is to be truly successful, i.e., more than just "getting by", he must understand these functions and this structure, neither of which have anything whatsoever to do with him. One begins, of course, again, by observing the market, characterizing it, then formulating hypotheses that tentatively explain its movements. One then tests those hypotheses in order to determine whether or not they are true, i.e., predictable and reliable. Only after all this do the matters of how to take advantage of what one has determined come into the picture, i.e., entrances, exits, stops, etc. It is at this point that the process becomes almost entirely egocentric, e.g., how much risk can I tolerate, and the market itself becomes largely ignored except insofar as it serves the trader's needs and wants. But the market couldn't care less about the trader's needs and wants. And this results in a perpetual frustration among those who focus on themselves rather than on the behavior of price (which is the aggregate of the behaviors of everyone who is participating in the market). If, for example, the trader is focused not only on breakeven but on getting to breakeven as quickly as possible, he is focusing not on the market but on himself. One of the more obvious consequences of this, particularly if the trader is "stopped out", is that the trader dwells or even obsesses over his "failed trade" and completely ignores what the market has told him by having come back to or exceeded his entry point, thus preventing him from evaluating the situation and preparing for the next trade, especially if it happens to be in the opposite direction. I suggest, therefore, that those who are serious about developing trading plans focus on the market and on price behavior rather than on themselves, unless they want to spend years trying to reconcile two forces which are in many ways mutually incompatible. If one enters correctly, for example, issues of stops and breakeven and size and "targets" become irrelevant. If one doesn't enter correctly, then of course he has to exit. But his doing so has nothing to do with his hopes and needs and wants and desires. Rather it has to do with the fact that he read the market incorrectly. One should, in fact, once he has entered a trade, forget about the fact that he entered the trade at all and instead focus on the market. Only in this way will he become "available" to profit from what the market has to offer. Nearly all traders except for beginners are in a quandary: they are eager to trade yet are afraid to trade. Thus they seek to exploit the market while simultaneously insulating themselves from any negative consequences of attempting to do so. That's what the bulk of these millions of posts here and elsewhere are all about. Only an infinitesimally small number of them are focused on why price moves as it does. Which is why there are so many millions (billions?) of posts.
The cross post on ego centric trading plans was excellent. Please consider adding it to the Developing a Trading Plan pdf.
I'm afraid it's one of those situations where those who understand it won't need it and those who need it probably won't understand it, at least until they've failed a number of times. At some point, I may add yet another appendix to the SLA/AMT on mindfulness, or else rework The Mind Game somewhat. In the meantime, I'll rely on people like you to pay it forward.