The Foresight Thread

Discussion in 'Journals' started by dbphoenix, Mar 19, 2015.

  1. Gringo

    Gringo

    Max
    Favourable
    Adverse
    Excursion
     
    #121     Apr 29, 2015
  2. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Maximum Favorable Excursion and Maximum Adverse Excursion (though technically it should be Maximum Adverse Incursion). In other words, how far does price go before turning back on itself and how deeply does price recoil after you've made your entry?

    For example, if your trade soars as soon as you've hit the Transmit key, fine. But if it backs up a bit before soaring, how far does it back up and still be good? How far does it back up before the deal's off? This helps you determine how much leeway to allow price if it doesn't take off immediately. It also helps prevent stomach upset.

    As for the MFE, how far does price typically go before stalling? If you're trading multiple contracts, which of course you are, and you want to scale out, which of course you do, the MFE gives you an initial target for that first scaleout.

    None of this is covered in the SLA, of course, as the beginning and fearful traders need to learn to walk with one contract before going wild.
     
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2015
    #122     Apr 29, 2015
    lajax likes this.
  3. weasel2

    weasel2

    Thank you
     
    #123     Apr 29, 2015
  4. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    You bet. Note also that these will change with each instrument traded, which is why they are part of the characterization process. They may also change with the season and with the position in the market trend, i.e., early or late, which is why price-action approaches are self-correcting and self-adapting.
     
    #124     Apr 29, 2015
  5. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    And to continue (I'm posting these together for obvious reasons):

    upload_2015-4-29_14-10-46.png
     
    #125     Apr 29, 2015
  6. weasel2

    weasel2

    db did one of your post get removed? The one with the line chart + ruler = $$
     
    #126     Apr 29, 2015
  7. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Nope. Still there. Maybe you have me on Ignore. :)

    But I'll post it here as well so that you can make a bumper sticker out of it.

    upload_2015-4-29_14-41-33.png
     
    #127     Apr 29, 2015
  8. weasel2

    weasel2

    I found it on a different thread, sorry. I bounce around from thread to thread its hard to keep track
     
    #128     Apr 29, 2015
  9. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Since so many of you are following this thread today, I want to take this opportunity to point out that I don't pay much if any attention to "outliers" when it comes to DLs and SLs as the outliers have only a very temporary effect on the demand/supply balance.

    Therefore,

    upload_2015-4-29_15-16-21.png

    In this case, the report's effect on price is not considered a "break". But this is just me. Others may want to deal with it in their own ways. That's one advantage of a discretionary system over a mechanical system. The SLA is flexible, to at least some degree.
     
    #129     Apr 29, 2015
  10. trader482

    trader482

    I prefer this way.
    NQ 100 Futures(5 Minutes)20150429152228.png
     
    #130     Apr 29, 2015