I should also remind that the daily people are involved here, so it's important to follow their lead rather than try to be a hero.
The NQ is well past a new high, but the ES is still struggling. If the ES can't move more than six points, the NQ may come back and test the previous high. Whatever decoupling may occur is always temporary.
Please note that falling below the last swing high does not foretell doom. The trend still runs through 4600.
I want to save this but also call attention to it. Wrb is one of the few members I follow (the red highlights are of course mine): . . . hopefully you're not trading with real money because if you are, its an uphill battle you'll never win in trying to be a successful trader. This is one of the hardest things to learn about trading...stay on the sidelines and study the markets for as long as it takes until you have all the pieces of the puzzle together and you're no longer confused about whatever price action you're trading. . . . as a discretionary trader (a trader not using automation)...there is some intuition involved within each trading day. Call it art if you want and it can not be taught...its something that's learned on your own and you can do such without taking a single trade. Yet, that intuition must occur within a framework of a trading plan...not outside as I'm sure you've learned. Also, most successful traders tend to not use the word intuition. Instead, they tend to use the word adapting to markets that's constantly changing...adapting within the trading plan. There's just so much more to successful trading than trade signals that by the time most figure that out...its too late to recover from so much instilled bad trading habits...it can't be cleaned up. Simply, you are the key...all that psychological stuff while interacting with the markets...not your trade signals. . . . If you can't manage that rush to put on a real-money trade and stay on the sidelines until you've put the puzzle together...you are not going to figure things out while trading. Yeah, its true that simulator trading results will be different (most likely better) than real money trading via the obvious...its in more of a relax and control environment . . . that psychological aspect. . . . one should not be doing simulator or real-money trading if they know they don't have an adequate trading plan. Trading with real money when you shouldn't be trading will instill bad trading behaviors you can't fix. Therefore, in my opinion, your goal should be how to control that urge to trade the markets...how to stay on the sidelines while you learn, test and put the pieces of the puzzle together. --wrbtrader And if I may tack on something of mine: Think of going to some game with which you are unfamiliar: football, rugby, soccer, cricket, whatever. While you're watching the game, your chief thought is not when you should jump onto the field and begin playing. Your chief thought centers around the following questions: What are they doing? Where are they doing it? Why are they doing it? How are they doing it? What were they doing before? Same with studying charts. Which is a prerequisite to developing a trading plan.
If you don't know what to do with this, just watch. Take notes. Lots of notes. That's how trading plans begin.
When the market provides you with such a nice, tight range just before the open, it pays to be aggressive. After all, there are only two choices.