coffeezoo, I am humbled by your comments. IMO, there are two basic ways to break existing patterns. The first is by doing something; ie. literally changing your behaviour. It could be making a funny noise, getting up for a walk, changing your daily schedule, doing something outrageous (Tony Robbins is an expert at this) anything that's different than you're currently doing. The second (and this is something that I'm only beginning to experiment with) is to do nothing except notice. Notice what happened, what you feel, what you did. Make everything a game in which you can be the observer, as opposed to the doer. Yes, this is very similar to eastern philosophy. So far, I'm finding this second way somewhat slower, yet the change tends to stay with you much better. I have found observational excersises create subtle but powerful shifts in ones behaviour. Try dining blind folded. Spend an afternoon out in public and all you can say is 1 of 4 pre-planned phrases. Consider spending a day where you say nothing, zilch. All the while noticing your own thoughts and the patterns of others. Many will scoff at the silliness of this type of excersise. What they don't get is the fact that we are run by our patterns, not the other way around. The excersises will tend to reveal the patterns, and once noticed, will have much less control over you. This also means you will start being aware of various aspects of your reality that never seemed to be there before. Your frame of refrence can increase significantly. Rule #2 is based on the premise that humans are not individuals, we are a connected whole (we being the entire universe) and as such have profoundly more potential than understood. Rule #2 is designed to break patterns also. Just because it's working doesn't mean something else might not be more fun. Yep, fun, because that, in the end, is all that matters. Just my philosophy.
abogdan, You have my attention. I have seen a couple of very good traders using candlestick charts, claiming they were buying support and selling resistance. Only problem was, they kept changing the definitions. I slowly came to the conclusion that these traders didn't (consciously) understand what they did to profitably trade. Please share what you're willing, I for one am listening carefully. Best
Nice to meet you, Sigmund Freud! Sorry for sarcasm, couldnât help. Iâm not trying to be a wise guy here. Iâm just trying to illustrate my point. Trend is just one of the ways to interpolate (illustrate) historical data. You can use linear regression, cubic splines, FIR filters, moving averages etc. to define a trend. But no matter what you do it is still all in the past. Every new point you add to it would have a probability of 50/50. Well, not exactly 50/50. It is actually a complex conditional probability formula that has about 13 arguments within. But for the purpose of this discussion letâs use 50/50. What you probably refer to is the probability of the price to move one way or another for X-amount of points during Y-period of time. This, obviously, is a totally different story! Unfortunately, I have to go now; my daughter has a surgery today. Wish me luck. Iâll continue this discussion (if you guys are interested) later in the day. I think we can have a pretty interesting dialog!
Let me illustrate what I mean with "...I do believe however that trends tend to continue and you can bet on that. It's human psychology in action." You have 3 posts per day in the last three days. That's a trend. Besides I did some "fundamental analysis" on you. I bet that the trend will continue and you will continue to post on this forum. To make it a more precise bet, I bet that you will reach 18 posts before January 5th. I will consider that I lost the bet if you have posted less than 16 posts after that date. My "profit target" is 22 posts Let's see if the trend will continue, Dr. Magus
Just wondering what data you're looking at that would lead you to believe that coin flipping and stock prices have anything in common? Either way, I look forward to hearing all about your own methodology. I'm guessing it is something like "one potato, two potato". Perhaps you could explain it to us in laymen's terms so us "cement heads" can understand. OldTrader
Make the best entry you can...... set an initial stop (and subsequent trailing stops) - and stick with them! All this talk about coin flipping etc. is just mental masturbation (IMHO) trying to convince yourself to take your stop. Concentrate on self-discipline and keep it simple.
Dear neutrino: I'm sorry but your illustration sucks! Unlike stock market where the price can go either up or down amount of posts that I place can only go up! So, obviously, soon or later there will be enough posts to meet any prediction. If that is what you call a trend then yes it does exist! I can also make predictions like this: you will be one year older a year from now. How is that? A very similar prediction you can make about amount of shares traded a day: it can only go up. Using your example the only fair bet would be amount of posts a day that I make. And suddenly it is not so easy! Can you predict, my dear friend, will I increase my average post rate tomorrow or will I reduce it? On one hand it is a New Year Eve, so I will have more time to post, on another hand, my family might need me to do some staff which will keep me away from my computer. So what is your bet? Your fundamental analysis though is quite correct. I am Dr. Magus. I posted this information because I have been a scientist for 30 years and the most important thing I have learned is sharing the knowledge! The best things in the world are free and I will continue to share my knowledge if it is OK with you. My plan is to share not to sell anything. My goal is to find people who would care to understand and add to it. I invite you to discuss my thoughts and some times it gets heated, sorry.
I will discuss it in depth as soon as I can. Thank you for your interest and sorry if I offended you. I will share everything that I have discovered. There is no secrets in true science.