I believe we are in the final run of the bond bull market... looks like if we can blast above 121, then we can go to 126 easily.... At that point, we have to decide where the hysteria is going... If 30 year yields can break 4, then maybe they can go to 3?
What information do I trust? Different methodologies ... thats the thing about statistics. Since when did savings rates have anything to do with bond rates in this global market ? As long as the US doesn't piss the remaining viability it has away (another war?), someone will buy our bonds, even if its not joe-blow. Regardless, there's still plenty of stocks to sell to raise money for the bond bubble. http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/03_23/b3836159_mz035.htm JUNE 9, 2003 INTERNATIONAL -- FINANCE Japan's Dangerous Savings Drought Consider the figures. Japan's savings rate topped 20% of household income in the mid-1970s and clocked 14% as recently as the start of the 1990s. It is now no higher than 7%, well below that of France, Germany, and Italy. And when final calculations are in for 2002, it may drop as low as 4% -- close to the rate of that revolving credit society, the U.S. (table). So far, the Japanese government shows few signs of concern about the drop. http://www.soumu.go.jp/index.html For the first time in eight years, Japanâs household savings rate increased in 2006. According to a report released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, the savings rate at households headed by a salaried worker averaged 27.5% last year, up 2.2 percentage points from 2005.