southamerica with his perma 'usd collapse next week' threads.. When is he going to realise that shifts like this often take decades to work through? If the dollar goes into another 30 year steady bear market like the last 30 years will you make money from it, or will you get shaken out on the pullbacks because everytime there is a downmove you sell the low thinking 'this is it- its going to zero'. Some common sense and tradable setups would be more useful than big attention grabbing thread titles. As I said before about this, the dollar index has not really declined much over the last few years and the whole time southamerica has been saying its going to collapse any day. I say if you are a USD bear then look to sell any big rallies into previous support levels over the next few decades if DX breaks below 70 and trends downwards. If you really want to catch a huge move, then there is the long precious metals play- this is much more likely to have an oversized move to the upside than the USD is to have one to the downside imo..
doesnt matter, the last thing usa will do is use it military might like what they did to iraq. A desperate attempt.
I recall the Carter years, inflation was pretty bad, enough to cause a lot of seniors to lose their [paid for] homes because the couldn't pay the property taxes and lots of them were eating dogfood... I try to tell these smug assholes that feel safe with their fixed incomes [and decry me for "risky behavior"] that inflation is going to cause their ribs to be showing but....
Because usa is the lone superpower, they will use this famous quote "I'll make him an offer he can't refuse" whatever it takes to make usa citizens happy.
April 5, 2011 SouthAmerica: Reply to Emg In the last 12 years I mentioned on various articles that eventually the countries of the world will be forced to choose a major currency for them to adopt based on each individual economic situation of each country. Canada and Mexico will probably adopt the US dollar or âThe New Dollarâ as its new currency, because their economies are so integrated with the US economy. After China grows up â we will have the âNew Asian Currencyâ similar to the euro, and Brazil should be part of this âNew Asian Currencyâ. More countries will adopt the euro including Russia as the third major currency. The Gulf currency also might be a choice for the countries of the Middle East. And we might have even another option that has not appeared on the radar, or it's not obvious as yet. This is what is going to happen very soon to the international monetary system after we have the final collapse of the US dollar. We have reached the end of the line for the current international monetary system. .
. April 5, 2011 SouthAmerica: Reply to BlackBison I am sorry to say, but you have not grasped as yet what is happening in economic and geopolitical terms. If you have been reading my postings here on the Elite Trader Economics Forum, or on Brazzil magazine, or on the comments section of the Charlie Rose Show, on Facebook, and on other forums on the web â I have been saying for a while that the US economic and financial system is collapsing just like the Soviet Union â and the only reason the collapse and meltdown is moving in slow motion is because the US dollar has the special status of being the major foreign reserve currency â If wasn't for that the collapse of the US economy already would be in a very advanced stage just like the final days of the Soviet Union. Today for the first time I saw someone else writing on this subject besides myself. The Financial Times (UK) published an article âIt's 1989, but we are the Russians.â Finally, the major financial newspapers started catching up and grasping what is underway. The party is over!!! Here is what the Financial Time article said: âItâs 1989, but we are the Russiansâ By Gideon Rachman Financial Times (UK) Published: April 4 2011 For the western world, the âArab springâ threatens to be a classic case of good news and bad news. The good news is that this is the Arab 1989. The bad news is that we are the Soviet Union. An exaggeration? Certainly. But there is enough truth in the analogy to explain why both the US and the European Union are uneasy about revolutions that â on one level â promote core western values, such as democracy and individual rights. Much of the corrupt and autocratic order that is wobbling so badly in the Middle East was western-backed. The sponsorship was nowhere near as brutal or as overt as the Soviet repression of eastern Europe. And there have always been anti-western regimes, such as Iran and Syria, existing alongside the pro-western governments in the Middle East. But there is no doubting that rulers such as Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen and King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia have been key western allies. In the classic formulation of the cold war, they were âour sons-of-bitchesâ. Or, as a writer in The Washington Times lamented last week: âMr Mubarak may have been a tinpot dictator, but he supported America.â Earlier this year, the Obama administration made it clear to Mr Mubarak that the US would not accept the violent suppression of the Egyptian uprising; just as in 1989 Mikhail Gorbachev, the leader of the Soviet Union, told the East German leadership that he would not support the murder of peaceful demonstrators in Leipzig. In both cases â Egypt and East Germany â the withdrawal of superpower support helped to tip the regimes over the edge, and to spread turmoil across a whole region. Like the USSR in 1989, the US chose the honourable option in refusing to let its regional ally stay in power through force. But, like the Russians, the US now has to worry that it will sacrifice power in a traditional sphere of influence. American officials know that they risk losing friends and endangering economic and security interests in an emerging Middle East that they barely understand. After the fall of Mr Mubarak, a senior US official was heard to lament: âBut we do everything with Egypt. Who do we work with now?â The Europeans have a similar dilemma. The French and British eagerness to intervene in Libya reflected a desire to put themselves on the âright side of historyâ â and to bury an embarrassing record of co-operation with the old regimes in Tunisia and Libya. But backing the democratic uprisings in north Africa was a relatively easy call for the western powers, compared with the strategic and economic dilemmas thrown up in the Gulf, which is the most important oil-producing region in the world and a key base for al-Qaeda. America has been noticeably reticent about supporting challenges to the ruling regimes in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Yemen. It has called on the government of Bahrain to reform; but the US barely protested when Saudi Arabia sent troops into Bahrain to help repress an uprising there. Robert Gates, US defence secretary, has said that his top priority in Yemen is the âwar on terrorâ and praised Mr Saleh for his co-operation with America. Only after months of demonstrations, and bloodshed on the streets of Yemen, has the US apparently concluded that Mr Saleh is another old ally who will have to go. Saudi Arabia itself represents the ultimate dilemma. More than 30 years ago, the US made clear that it would regard a threat to oil supplies from the Gulf as justification for military intervention. The âCarter doctrineâ, announced in January 1980 after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, proclaimed that: âAn attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force.â A peaceful transition to a more liberal political system in Saudi Arabia would clearly not breach the Carter doctrine. But something more chaotic and violent that opened the way to increased influence for al-Qaeda or Iran? Who knows? The fact that the Iranian government in Tehran and the leadership of al-Qaeda in Pakistan are also trying to influence events in the Arab world underlines that the US is not the only external actor with much at stake. The Iranians will see opportunities in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia â but will be very anxious about unrest at home and about the threat to the government of Syria, a key regional ally. Iranian anxiety illustrates that the geopolitics of the Arab spring are still far from settled... http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/202b56b0-5eea-11e0-a2d7-00144feab49a.html#axzz1IfcHW0jU .
April 5, 2011 SouthAmerica: Reply to BlackBison Wake up people!!!!! It's Panic time....watch this video, since Gerald Celente knows what he is talking about. Everybody in the United States should be watching this video â if they care about the future of what will be left of the old country. The United States will move forward after the collapse in a similar fashion that Russia became one of the surviving pieces of the Soviet Union. The handwriting is on the wall â and the process has already started and is spinning out of control. Gerald Celente -The First Great War of the 21st Century â April 3, 2011 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUX-1BI_pvQ .
. April 9, 2011 SouthAmerica: What else is new? ECB Interest Rate Hiked At 'Inappropriate' Time - Soros By Cynthia Lin - Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES The Wall Street Journal â April 8, 2011 http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110408-712016.html The ongoing sovereign debt crisis has "put the euro under some cloud," Soros said. However, the U.S. dollar is also losing ground as the main reserve currency.... ***** The handwriting is on the wall: It's Panic time..... âWhat Soros and Rogoff are saying: Bretton Woods 2011' By Richard Blackden, US Business Editor - The Telegraph (UK) â April 9, 2011 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...and-Rogoff-are-saying-Bretton-Woods-2011.html This weekend 400 economists and central bankers have assembled in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, to explore the way in which economic thinking needs to respond to the financial crisis, at a conference organised by the Geroge Soros-funded Institute of New Economic Thinking. Here is what some of the key figures have to say: George Soros, financier and philanthropist: The billionaire says that the economics profession needs to pay far more attention to the fact that humans are not the rational agents that much modern economic theory assumes they are. It also needs to be recognised, he says, that mathematical models that have become dominant in economics over the last 30 years cannot model the uncertainty that is part of human life. Ken Rogoff, Professor of Economics at Harvard University After more than 25 years in the economics profession, Professor Rogoff told delegates that far more empirical-based research is needed for the discipline to be more useful in detecting financial crises. .
I guess he's never heard of a black swan or a contingent event... all current risk management does is ensure everyones models max out with the same over-optimized variables...I fail to see what predicting the future will do to solve a latent and dysfunctional credit system, currency and economy.