This is my hunch. I can't prove anything though. http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/20080506a.htm If I'm correct crude should see another major run up a few days before May 19 and a week after. May 19th is the day of the next TAF auction in which $75 billion dollars (not bonds, actual dollars) will be exchanged for subprime paper (and other "high quality" paper).
An astute observation. It really comes down to how much of oil's rise is being fueled by speculation vs. industrial demand.
Wow.. So if what you are suggesting is true, would that mean all this cash levered to long crude positions might create a second i-banking bust of epic proportions? If what you are saying is true, a $50 correction in oil would possibly put the remaining i-banks underwater, creating an epic systemic crash situation ... I highly doubt it... smells too good to be true.