Didn't read your article link, but just off your posting topic I would say DUH! Anyone who thinks we are going to go back to an economy of 70% consumer spending being GDP, is riding the short bus. Many here probably are not fully aware, if aware at all, that what is transpiring before your eyes is the biggest shift in capitalism that the world has ever seen. There are no new rules or design yet, everything is being written as we go along. I can tell you with 100% accuracy, that what passes over the next several years will be written about and studied in history and economics books for the next century. No longer will the great depression be what people study, whatever this quagmire ultimately gets named will be the grand-daddy of them all. I will venture a prediction and say the low has not been made yet, only time will verify me on that. I also believe that this flu outbreak will cause a great loss of life globally before we develope any immunity to it through vaccines and exposure. Many in this country are being very non-chalante about it, and that is a major mistake. I have a feeling,if not by this coming Friday, Monday will be a very bad day for the markets. There is a 2-5 day incubation period, which tells me many people are walking around right now that have no idea they have it, and worse, are infecting others. There will be great loss of life as a motality rate. We are at the end of flu season for the northern hemisphere, if we cannot develope an effective vaccine before the end of summer, the next flu season will be deadly. We can count ourselves lucky in the fact this is not the start of flu season. I do feel for the populace of the southern hemisphere, they are just entering their flu season, and will not have any vaccine to deal with this outbreak. Read up on the Spanish flu, first appeared in March (at the end of flu season), went away and then came back with a vengeance, killing tens of millions.
Maybe, maybe not. While swine flu can be very serious, the last panic turned out to be not so bad. More people died from the vaccine than the flu itself. http://www.salon.com/env/feature/2009/04/28/1976_swine_flu/
Yet U.S. stock markets are immune to economic and credit conditions. Overnight futures always trades down over 1 percent followed by an open which completely ignores
Thanks for the link. I really suggest reading it. The first few pages are the summary, then read your district. This is really a nuts and bolts synopsis of the economy and is the main part of the governors job, hit the streets and get the feel of the economy in their district and report back to the chairman or staff. No one names names and business people can speak frankly.
We seem to think on the same wavelengths. I even thought the short bus part was worth a laugh. The lows have not been put in, Dougy Kass will look like Dougy Ass and yes the flu will be much worse than people think. Denial is an incredibly strong human emotion.
Not trying to nit pick your post, just didnt want to link it all. I agree with bearish outlook. But on the flu.. I talked with my wife about what to do, we have a couple young ones in school. We discussed keeping them home until more is clear. But, we just cant do it. We can't hold up and hide from life. The kids need to be in school, we need to work. If people start dying left and right, yes we will hide. I'm sure at that point it will be too late. It is not a case of not taking it serious, we will suffer the same fate as everyone else. There is no other choice.
I know most traders here on ET could care less about reading an economic report, but one should take some time to read this one. This report is very gloomy describing the amount of applicants for jobs as "inexhaustable". In many ways its depressing, but its nice to know the real truth versus what the stock market is telling you which is sometimes just a lie...
When the reality of employment sinks in, we're likely to find we have an "excess of labor" and can't find satisfactory jobs for most of them... maybe can't find jobs of ANY kind... and we'll be competing for minimum wage positions, 'cause that's mostly all that will be available. Yeah, sure.. there will be some well-paying middle class jobs, but there will be 20 applicants for each.