I just realized that the last time the Dollar was this low the Fed started hiking !!! Add to this Terrible GDP numbers Terrible Housing numbers Inverted Yield Curve and Luke Warm Employment numbers All arguments that the economy is slowing so ... now we have divergence. Weak Dollar Slowing Economy vs Bull Market Euphoria What do you think tomorrow's report will bring???
Sooner or later the smart thing to do is slow down or stop the asset price explosion. DEBT levels are way to high...
Same happens tomorrow as has been happening last few meetings of the FOMC. Got to inflate the debt away!!!!!!!
add to that the fact that the fed usually lowers "AFTER" major recessionary periods are acknowledged and "AFTER" stocks pull back steeply from high points. You have a pretty good likelihood that they aren't going to cut any time soon. They may do nothing, so as not to startle the market. But it's doubtful, contrary to most of the cheerleaders, that they would start cutting IMHO.
My take: no change. If they can't pull it off by lowering the rate later in the year, then two things would happen: 1. Hyperpinflation 2. Stagflation
Great comments: We still have not addressed the issue of the Divergence. How do you see this melt up playing out ? 14,000 and burst or do we stall here ? Tomorrows language will set the tone that's for certain.