Don't take it the wrong way, but it appears to me like you are trying very hard to find a reason to fear. You can't predict the future, but have the confidence and believe in yourself that you will adapt to whatever challenges the market will throw at you in the future. You don't fear that you may get hit by a drunk driver a few years down the road, do you? Cheer up, and enjoy whatever edge you have at the moment, and just work hard to change it when the system no longer works as well.
Much more people die hit by non-drunk drivers, so you have to fear them more since probabilities are bigger there. Thought I'd contribute some useless rubbish to the thread
hi Odd trader, Thanks for keeping the thread discourse alive. Too bad you didn't get a response on your "specific"...."constant" quiry. I view edges as coming from about 6 distinct roots; five are: News, Market rules, Instrument processes, Index relations to securities, and Price action. I focus on the 6th: A technical edge (P, V) heirarchy. The four levels of the heirarchy lead to 3, 6, 60 and 840 edges (identifiable) and about 10% of these are common among traders (a bout 80 are worth tracking) Price action edges are on the lowest level of the hierarchy if overlap of the 6 roots are considerd. What makes "specific" edges come and go is mostly the change of technology and secondly the breadth of participants in trading. reading about failure is where this can best be found out (See Dustin here for example). By regarding an hierarchy of edges, it becomes apparent why the word "constant" was chosen. It isn't a good word but that is what was used by someone. Permanent edges become the magnet for traders as their skills, knowledge and capital increases. Having 100% certainty over time is the better way to go for trading to assure profits. You can follow histories of thraders in ET and those who are making progress rise from one level to another as they experience purposeful growth. There is another path as well; the one of repeated failure leading to quiting or being forced to quit by lack of capital. The technical edge (P, V) heirarchy shows how a trader goes through several intellectual gates in walls that separate types of traders by their respective skills of lack of skills. Edge traders start at the bottom of the hierarchy apparently. Level IV is the signal type edge and about 14 classes of signals are apparent. On level III trading is done using patterns and their are four classes of patterns and within each class their are many identifiable sub categories totalling 10. Level II is where patterns and the signals within patterns are contained. For me these are simply the traverses of any of the three types of trends forming level I: long, short and lateral. On level II there are two types of traverses: dominant and non dominant. each of these serve to uniquely separate and isolate patterns which only occur on one or the other. As may be seen, it is easy for a trader to make choices that deny him access through the gates of various intellectual walls. Fear is why access is denied a person from going from level IV (signal based setups) to level III. A signal is simply a moment in time and it's precursors or subsequent events are not able to be considered. (Google jbob to see this). These edges come and go as stated above. If a person recognizes he has to deal with more than a moment in time to make money, he get to be able to consider events and their consequences and their precursors. fear is eliminate here and the intellectual gate that has been opened it that the person is able to think in terms of a series of events. these fall into patterns for making money and patterns inbetween making money. Unfortunately the sets of unique patterns are couchedin a more general market condition solely dependnet upon the type of traversing movement price is making within one of three types of trends. It is a step, intellectually, to move from singular moments to trains of moments. It is also another difficult step to be able to move, intellectually to see that there are contexts that influence these trains of moments called patterns. Patterns have to be considered in their context. You can look at the progress (or lack) in NN and BA to discover how not considering relavent externalities prevent analysis in an arrangement as is done with molecules, atoms, and sub atomic particles and forces. Their was a thread on patterns and their analysis by using NN and BA. I posted once there and it was deleted; too bad for those trying to think about using quant to analyze patterns. It is important to know that flags or pennants only occur in nondominant traverses for many reasons when it comes to making money. It is also important to know that there is a sequence of appearance of various patterns in dominant traverses of trends. Any edge trader who has moved from signals to patterns and their signals, has to go through an intellectual gate to be able to see what is the signaificant context for patterns. The recognition of "context" is what allows an adge trader to rise to a level of understanding the "permanence" of the level III class of edges in the hierachy. Dustin says he is now passing up on types of things that are in the five categories of edges that are NOT in the technical edge (P,V) heirarchy. People do not often work edges from the general to the "specific". Dustin does speak from general to specific and I hope he sticks with his guns on keeping his eyes peeled all of the time instead of punting down to "specific" edges which are of the nature to come and go. Elliot, fibs, and most wave theories note that price is in a container that ebbs and flows. to make money the container is less important than the context it "represents". the context ONLY serves as an isolator for what is possible in the moment to moment where trading takes place. Opening this intellectual gate to know that most is NOT possible and to Know that it is important to find what is possible can bring a person to understand that the market CONTINUALLY ELIMINATES ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS UNTIL ONLY ONE POSSIBILITY REMAINS. How can a person raise his reasoning to the levels available to leave "specific" edges behind and walk toward the "constant" or permanent? This a demand made of the intellect. Critical thinking is required. signals come from a moment and patterns come from collections of identifiable moments in unique orders. Patterns have adjacencies and form susets based on conditions and contexts. the contexts are definable as market actions. These actions are traverses within trends, of which there are three basic types: long short and lateral. It is a mistake to see markets as trending or not trending. there is lways one of three trends and within each of thse opssiblitleis thereare always traverses. The dom inant or non-dominant nature of any traverse dictated to possible pattern subsets (which are each unique). Patterns have signals that dictate action points for taking segments of profits. From this we see the last two intellectual gates a person passes through to arrive at trading expertise. the person has to recognize that "taking data sets" that reveal the instantaneous condition of each level of market operation (thrend (3), traverse (2), pattern set (10) amd signal 914) is a trading requirement. And he has to recognize that all market information that the market dictates boils down to one thing: staying on the right side of he market. Traders gat foiled in their efforts to carry out growing intellectually and going through the gates mentioned above. Primarily they learn to have two states of trading: being in and being out. Too bad. This leads to entering and exiting. entries are based upon "specifics", usually signals. traders learn that signals come and go. They learn they must replace them or be diversified. In this way they either move with the "times" (of the "specific signal world) or the foul out and go away. as they approach this particualr turning point, they do notice "fear". Fear of this or that or the other. This is about as far away from the solution to thier intellectual problem as possible. How can a trader at the bottom of the feeding web get out of this type of starvation? Critcial thinking is where it all begins. What would it be like if everyone reading posts actually thought about what was being said. Odd asked a lot of Q's and Odd responded to some commentary....all in order to improve his thinking. Cold couldn't answer Odd as we all saw. That is okay. A lot of comments in ET are just superficial blah's. My comments are classified as ............ That is the way it is. I have learned to make money. What you can get from me is that I post substance based on a lot of years of thinking critically about making money. FYI, I am past rich. If you read what I wrote about 10 times, you can begin to get with it. That is just the way it is.
What do you mean? Why do you use so many obscure statements that are hard to impossible to comprehend? Can you explain your ideas in simple terms?
After reading a handful of Mr. Hersey's posts, I have to agree. Inately, I believe there is value in his posts in general. The problem is it's like finding a needle in a haystack. So much noise. Too bad he can't keep it simple without the self embellishing stuff. One of the first things I learned in college from English 101 was to keep writing simple and easy for the reader to comprehend. In other words, less is more. Jack, do you know of an interpreter here on ET who can translate your remarks in easy to understand English without the esoteric filler? Or do we have to digest some exotic hallucinogen to be on your wavelength?
Dude, he's talking trash. Use the ignore button. 1) Either he knows something and is going out of his way NOT to impart his great wisdom. 2) Psychopath.