Sorry that I cut it off; here it is: " Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an Independent, or none of these? [IF âDEMOCRAT,â ASK:] Do you consider yourself a strong or moderate Democrat? [IF âREPUBLICAN,â ASK:] Do you consider yourself a strong or moderate Republican? [IF âINDEPENDENTâ OR âNONE,â ASK:] Do you lean more toward the Democrats or the Republicans?"
then there is NO discrepancy whatsoever in morris's numbers vs. the ones you posted. take a closer look. moreover, the spike up in the last week in the AP's category of "moderate democrats" is rather interesting, considering it happened over a 7 day period, no? or are you insinuating people converted to moderate democrat in the 7 day timeframe? maybe it had to do with Osama? hehe... a more reasonable explanation is that the AP conveniently included more democrats in their poll than the previous week.
fwiw, RCP publishes an average of polls and IMO, this is the best measure. It shows Obama having a51.7% favorable rating and a 42.4% unfavorable. No doubt, getting bin Laden helped as did the Dems meme that the GOP was destroying Medicare. I have no idea how AP could have rigged their poll as it is done by an independent polling company. But, the ratio of Dems to Reps is clearly out of line with other polls where that data are available. So, I think we are both more or less on the same page. Morris stated that the October 2010 AP poll had a 32 25 split between Dems and Reps; but the data I posted directly from the poll shows the spread as 42 Dem 48 Rep. <script type="text/javascript" src="http://charts.realclearpolitics.com/widget_embed.js?id=1044&width=450&height=338&key=president_obama_job_approval"></script>
It's self-reporting, so the switches could be happening on an hourly basis, if the news is significant (as you hinted re Osama). With the spike up in moderate Democrat numbers there is a similar drop in "leaning" independents from both Dems and Reps. The more reasonable explanation is actually that this is the small bump which was expected as a result of the OBL killiing.
I have said alot of times, that the media centres like Fox news, MSNBC, Huffington post, or think progress, are far less dangerous then the mainstream media. You would have to be an idiot to go to any of these places and believe that what you are getting is unbiased news coverage. The real danger lies in the mainstream media, where no one ever questions their bias, and people, (particularly the left) automatically assume whatever they are saying is true, and no one ever questions whether or not they are a biased news centre. There are alot of independents, who arent necessarily big into politics, who go to places like NBC, CBS, CNN, or the AP in this case, and these are the people who can be swayed from one side to the other, so when these places put tilt on the news in a subtle way, like they do when they kiss Obamas ass, they are able to swing alot more votes then a place like MSNBC, or FOX news ever could. The people who tune into Fox and MSNBC, are into politics, and have already chosen their side to begin with, and they certainly know the score on either of those networks going in.
I agree. RCP has the best coverage on polls. I'll start watching them about six months before the election.
as i said earlier, you need to look closer. morris is counting republicans vs. democrats. the data you posted includes counting independent that lean one way or the other. RCP average polls are the way to go, if you ask me. the problem exists that polls like the AP one that we are discussing skew that average when they are so blatantly messed up like this one was.