Oh good lord. If the sample had randomly selected only republicans and the result was a 10% approval, would you make the same argument? Would you also conclude that there are no longer any democrat voters? No. Get your head in the game!
That is not what happened. But, if the sample was truly random, then I would conclude that the results were valid: 1. O. had a 10% approval. 2. All eligible voters were Republican. Seneca
Yes. BTW-what is it you don't like about the AP-GfK poll? I hope you are not mixing the observed results vs what you think they ought to be. The Gallup poll sheds some more light on the current trend: Republicans have shifted to favor Obama. Of course, we Americans are a fickle bunch, and Obama's/Democrats new popularity can change quickly, especially if the economy gets worse. Seneca
Randomness is not the central issue, though it is important. The representativeness of the sample is being questioned. That's fair, and sampling methodology is well understood. This is where the author needs to work, the assertion "it aint so" is largely baseless at the moment.
here i a good write up from dick morris. i've omitted most of the opinional commentary and tried to just copy the interesting facts.
Here is what I see when looking at the AP data re. party ID: Oct 2010: 48% Republican 42% Democrat May 2011: 29% Rep. 46% Dem. So, AP is noting a down trend in the people who say they are Republican. Other polls have it closer to an even split, but trending in the Dems. favor. EG: Reuters/IPSOS has it 44% Dem./ 40% Rep. http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK_Poll_May_Topline_051011_POLITICS.pdf Seneca