The FairPut Initiative

Discussion in 'Journals' started by thecoder, Aug 26, 2020.

  1. thecoder

    thecoder

    Cool pop music by Dua Lipa "Break My Heart".
    IMO "mathematically" perfectly made :) and IMO best heard w/o the video as it distracts from the real music.
     
    #101     Aug 30, 2020
  2. thecoder

    thecoder

    Btw, I will not be sad/disappointed/unhappy if anybody else comes up mathematically
    proving that the BSM option pricing is incorrect, ie. not exact. On the contrary! :)

    Same, if someone else finds the correct option pricing model before me.
    It really doesn't matter for me. What matters is finally to have the one and only correct pricing model.
     
    #102     Aug 30, 2020
  3. destriero

    destriero

    The output is a vol-figure. You asking someone to prove a negative. BSM is broken because of skew? lol go away.
     
    #103     Aug 30, 2020
  4. thecoder

    thecoder

    I'm hopeful to be able to present today very first experimental test results of my new option pricing model.
    It will have also the corresponding BSM numbers for easy comparison between the two pricing engines.

    But whether the FairPut algorithm (for equal payoff for CALL and PUT at same z distance) will work with it without causing arbitrage, is not tested yet.
     
    #104     Aug 31, 2020
  5. thecoder

    thecoder

    Here's the first result:
    Code:
    
    Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) option pricing model:
    BSM(S=100, K=100, t=1, s=30%, r=0%, q=0%):
      CALL=11.923538474048 PUT=11.923538474048
    
    
    FairPut option pricing model (FPM):
    FPM(S=100, K=100, t=1, s=30%, r=0%, q=0%):
      CALL=11.791142218895 PUT=11.791142218895
    
    
    As can be seen, there is a difference between BSM and FPM, even with r=q=0.
    I'm sure that FPM is correct since the maths behind it is solid.
    And if FPM is correct, then of course BSM can only be wrong...

    Btw, this also reveals/discloses the true meaning of the "crypto" in the original posting. :)
     
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2020
    #105     Aug 31, 2020
  6. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    i found the criminal conspiracy in the black-scholes equation this weekend while my kids were playing outside. i have already used it to earn 28MM.

    upload_2020-8-31_13-35-45.png
     
    #106     Aug 31, 2020
  7. destriero

    destriero


    Weren't you up nearly 40?
     
    #107     Aug 31, 2020
  8. thecoder

    thecoder

    I told ye, man!... :)
    Too bad it's only a paper trading (aka demo) account, or is it? :)
     
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2020
    #108     Aug 31, 2020
  9. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    It’s not a demo account. I dont think E*TRADE offers demo accounts.
     
    #109     Aug 31, 2020
    thecoder and destriero like this.
  10. traider

    traider

    I warned that this will happen when you go announcing to the world about what you found. I already see the opportunities slowly closing. You should have kept quiet and traded the alpha out of this.
    @thecoder
     
    #110     Aug 31, 2020