we all await next week and even then unless this is a real product it is all useless, by the way why bother with ET just get a patent and go to the institutions publish a paper for pear review in major uni / publication etc
That's true for you and others maybe, not necessarily for me Remember this: besides the real market, there is also an ideal simulated market where one can test and develop strategies under best conditions. It too needs tools and algorithms. In that stage I'm right now, where I need a fair PUT, ie. FairPUT And this is also the normal and usual way for how new things enter the real world: by developing and testing it first in such a lab environment (simulation). Why does it bother you at all? Since you unfortunately do not understand the reason and my motivation for why I see this as a necessary work to do. You better just continue doing your practical trading, and leave such research to researchers, I would suggest. Then both sides will be happy in their own world, I guess. And: I've not studied finance at any university, so I can't do such academic research, I'm instead doing my research as a practitioner here right at ET , as I am just a self-taught finance mathematician or quant or whatever. Whatever. Doesn't matter...
The whole approach of OP is a failure to understand the markets. It doesn't really matter if the options are mispriced, as long as the market accept them as the correct ones. It is like coming up with a fundamental value for stocks and saying Tesla should be around $200 and not 2200 or Bitcoin under a hundred. As long as the market think the current price is the correct one, you can come up with any formula, the market will beat you and you will lose money fighting it. On the other hand I am curious about the novel...
I reckon' it does matter to you a great deal. Yer looking to be the next John Nash... But who's glory is it for? Yours, or the world's?
This statement betrays a total lack of understanding of how options work. I'd try to explain it to you, but it has already been explained in this and other thecoder threads by numerous posters. If an option is mispriced, trade against the mispricing.
Go ahead. Thecoder's view is that ALL options are mispriced. So he should just trade against them, according to you, instead of trying to come up with a new formula.
@Pekelo, just think logically a little bit further: in theory both of them are possible to do and would make sense. I'm doing the 2nd one just because this seems easier to do for me than the 1st one, as I haven't thought much about making profit from the the 1st one yet (also unsure whether one can profit from that general mispricing of BSM at all)...
I'm currently unfortunately stuck in my effort in finding the correct option pricing model. In my model the impact of dividends causes some problems. To understand the problem better, I created the following table as an helper: Code: BSM(S=100, K=100, t=1, s=30%, r=0%, q=0%): CALL=11.923538474048 PUT=11.923538474048 Impact of r and q in BSM (using 0%, 5%, -5% for r, q): r q logical? Comments 0 0 CALL=11.923538474048 PUT=11.923538474048 y 5 0 CALL=14.231254785986 PUT=9.354197236057 y -5 0 CALL=9.833797184067 PUT=14.960906821670 y 0 5 CALL=9.354197236057 PUT=14.231254785986 y like r = -5, q = 0 0 -5 CALL=14.960906821670 PUT=9.833797184067 y like r = 5, q = 0 5 5 CALL=11.342020640681 PUT=11.342020640681 y like r = 5 - 5 = 0, q = 0 5 -5 CALL=17.592110958058 PUT=7.587943770527 y like r = 5 + 5 = 10, q = 0 -5 5 CALL=7.587943770527 PUT=17.592110958058 y like r = -5 - 5 = -10, q = 0 -5 -5 CALL=12.534871364295 PUT=12.534871364295 (y) like r = -5 + 5 = 0, q = 0 Same with s=0.001% : BSM(S=100, K=100, t=1, s=0.001%, r=0%, q=0%): CALL=0.000398942280 PUT=0.000398942280 Impact of r and q in BSM (using 0%, 5%, -5% for r, q): r q logical? Comments 0 0 CALL=0.000398942280 PUT=0.000398942280 y 5 0 CALL=4.877057549929 PUT=0.000000000000 y -5 0 CALL=0.000000000000 PUT=5.127109637602 y 0 5 CALL=0.000000000000 PUT=4.877057549929 y like r = -5, q = 0 0 -5 CALL=5.127109637602 PUT=0.000000000000 y like r = 5, q = 0 5 5 CALL=0.000379485636 PUT=0.000379485636 y like r = 5 - 5 = 0, q = 0 5 -5 CALL=10.004167187531 PUT=0.000000000000 y like r = 5 + 5 = 10, q = 0 -5 5 CALL=0.000000000000 PUT=10.004167187531 y like r = -5 - 5 = -10, q = 0 -5 -5 CALL=0.000419396489 PUT=0.000419396489 y like r = -5 + 5 = 0, q = 0 Just a braindump / thinking aloud... PS: crypto hint #2