50% of the wanna be "traders" don't know how to calculate volatility and simple probability. The 50% who do know, 50% of them either don't have any risk management or have any discipline, 30% of them are not emotionally stable. so if you don't have such problem, that puts you in the top of 10%. so your chance of making it is not really 5%, but 50%. all you have to do it to develop some edge and practice it.
I'm sorry, but such a logic does not apply in the market. Only logic you should be mindful of is that the market can remain insanely irrational until you find yourself in the poorhouse.
lol, if only it was that easy. trading is still very difficult even if you have it all worked out. there is still a high degree of randomness that can over ride your edge for months on end. trading is also emotional negative sum. will suck you emotionally even if you have an edge. no one enjoys getting their heads kicked in for months on end and even when your system is working the wins wont emotionally make up for the losses.
This likely applies to you: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_superiority Now go look up Dunning-Kruger effect.