mine is not similar to CCI, it is more like MA crossing to provide signal for scalping few time a day.
Here it is. (Papertrades) I'm taking alot of trades, every setup, so I can go back and figure out my High Probability triggers and my Low Probability triggers. These terms are stolen from NihabaAshi. Thanks N. I seem to have found something which I need to further research. Today I also traded two contracts, and scaled out of the trade. I found this was too advanced for me right now and am sticking to one contract per trade. It was exhausting writing down everything and keeping an eye on my quotes, so I didn't "guess" as to where I traded. Gonna do some research tonight to cut down on the # of trades I do a day. Would like to keep it under 10. 20 trades, 9 winners, 9 losers, and 2 b/e for net of +4.75 points, after commisions it dropped to +.75 points.
Here's the chart. 20 trades, 5 winners, 8 losers, and 7 b/e for +7.75 ES points. Went thru my entries last night, and broke them down into High Probability and Low Probability. Took only the high prob, and still ended up with 20 trades. I want to eventually get that down to 10 or less a day, and am looking how to cut them in half. Gonna go thru my charts and see how I trade between 12 and 2. Today it was all chop, and i paid for it. Exits, the most important part of the trade, need some work too. I like my basic trailing exit I use, but need something else. Many trades I get 3-3.5 points ahead and end up with a break even (+.25) trade. Looking for better trade management, although I am not really sure what I am looking for. How do you marry the quick 1-2 points, yet, stay in for the big moves, like this morning (T2, T3, and T19) and afternoon.
Well, Its all about the "character" of the market. This morning was a "Green Scream" short squeeze melt up. If it doesnt try to backfill the gap up, STAY long till the momo goes cold; even then it consolidated on high, no retracement. Once there, play range "PingPong." Then "Panic Selloff" ahead of CSCO's #s...typical, too typical. So peg the character, know your Ewave Counts and there potential fib retracements and extensions off the primary move, else you'll have know way to guage the strength/weakness.--Peterg
Knowing what a statistical wizard you are Huios, I suspect that you are tabulating your results to determine the mean and mode of your profits AND profit opportunities, thereby giving you objective data from which to draw upon when you place your stops. Recognizing of course your extensive higher education, I presume that you are analyzing the time of day that your trades execute, which trades subsequently are profitable, and trade duration, thus deriving correlations among time of day, trade duration, and trade profitability. Conversely, I am sure that you are analyzing the same correlations for your losses. Undoubtedly a student of trading with as much dedication as you has already placed the entry prices, max in the money, max out of the money, exit prices, time of day, and trade duration on a spreadsheet allowing you to query various combinations of execution and profitability. Wow, you have been busy H!
Hey H! Try this link. It has some interesting points about trailing stops etc. I agree, the toughest part is when to take a profit. http://www.activetradermag.com/special/cyberstridsman0602.htm inandlong Member Extraordinaire
Huios, You are beginning to sound like a trading machine...I will continue to check up on you... nitro
The character of the market. You never know someones true character till you have hung out with them thru the good and especially, the bad times. I know how long you have known the markets, and know you have been thru both the good and the bad times with her. Me, its only been a few months, I've learned alot, but still can't read her character as well as I hope to a few months down the road. Knew enough to take almost 11 points this morning during the "Green Scream", and almost 6 points during the "Panic Selloff", but lost the game of "Ping Pong". Thanks Peter, I'll give you a call in the near future.