Correct. Ultimately my long range goal is to capture half of the intraday travel range. Correct, it is a bit of overkill. So true. Combining swing wins, with scalpers risk. Too ambitious... thank you for being kind. Yes. In my mind, this is what I was trying to do. But not using the right "skill set". Yes, a swing trader stuck in a scalpers body. Vulture, I owe you.
OK, that is what I thought. What feels good, actually is not, and what causes me to pinch by butt cheeks together (pretty graphic ) is what I should be looking at. Generally speaking.
That, obviously (using hindsite), is what I have been doing these last 3 weeks. What I was doing in May, was using the "conventional". Yes. Yes. And I'm not sure that is what I want, right now. Yes, I understand what you are trying to say. I was trying to do a similar thing, except I waited for the bounce in the opposite direction, and a confirmation that the short term trend has changed, ie a lower high, or higher low. My problem (other than the mixing of timeframes) is I did not know where the s/r was until after the fact. Although, I think that problem is somewhat solved.
I find that I can get the best R/R if I stalk a stock until I get the lowest risk entry as possible. I try to keep things simple and use most of the classic TA setups, but my discipline keeps me only taking the ones I have defined as optimal. What I mean by that is I will let a trade go even if it looks good if I happened to see the trade late - no matter how good it still looks. Reversal patterns generally have a larger R/R. I expect to be stopped out possibly 2 times in trying to refine the entry so I keep the stops very tight (1-1.5 points). Pullback strategies give me a lower R/R trade, but I found them to have higher win/loss ratios so I often do not look to re-enter more than once if I happened to get whipped out. From there if the trade actually moves in line with my view the money management startegies I learned from Tharp keep the trade profitable or at worst a scratch. A truly optimal trade would setup so that I could add to the trade such as in in the case of a flag pattern, but those don't happen too often so I'm usually scaling out and preparing for an entirely new pattern after that.
LOL, critiques are welcome. Maybe it is that I am a nice guy, that people are being nice. My wife would conccur. I know, actually my expectancy for May was -.77. Yikes!! For every dollar I risked, I was losing 77 cents. I was going to wait for the end of June, and figure it out for the month, as I made lots of changes from May to June, but, since my "revelation" (for lack of a better word), I am going to do it later tonight, or tomorrow. Have (completed) the course. Printed Phantom's book. Yes it makes sense, now!!! The big question is, what is gonna happen tomorrow????? I understand what you are trying to say about Rule 1. One of the ways the market was proving the trade correct, was that it went in my direction right away (few minutes). I also realize that I was confusing my swing and scalp ideas of what a trade proven correct was. It (I) was all messed up!!! And yes, getting shaken out, and the market going in my direction was very frustrating, because, most of the time, I knew what the general direction was gonna be, but, because of my "scalpers risk tolerance", I bailed. And, like Ditch, and others, I still like the tight stops. How is this all gonna work out? Stay tuned tomorrow for the daytime series, "How the Evolution Evolves"! Yes, it helps. Thanks.
Dizzy, coud you please may be post a few charts showing the trading of these patterns you mentioned. I bet everyone knows these simple patterns but how many are making money off them consistently? You know what I mean?
Sunnyskies and others, I will post a chart later today on 2 simple trades that were in the ES on Friday both using a 1pt stop. Judge for yourselves. The trades are there everyday with tight stops.
Jimsy post s/r level everyday in futureroom charts1 every morning http://www.talkstox.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?forumid=13 this site also calculate them http://e-minifutures.com/dailynumbers.htm
Sunnyskies, Here is a 5min chart of Friday's SP Emini. These were 2 pretty simple trades on the sort of things I look for. Had a total of 5 trades for three winners and two 1pt losers. This type of trading is not for everyone but it works for me. After reading heaps of books and doing courses I have learn't one simple lesson. Keep it simple.