The EURUSD Top Trade

Discussion in 'Trading' started by apex82, Dec 3, 2006.

What is your view on the EURUSD trade?

Poll closed Feb 1, 2007.
  1. This is the stupidest trade I have ever seen! US Dollar is going to plummet!

    2 vote(s)
  2. I like it, I would risk 10% on it

    4 vote(s)
  3. I dont care

    5 vote(s)
  1. I thought I would post another thread regarding another high probability trade with a good risk to reward. I have successfully called the oil bottom by 3 ticks from a daily chart on another thread so you can take that as some merit. This trade will be sure to stir up some controversy, but here it is.....

    ....Short at 1.3400
    ....Add on at 1.3420

    ....Stop at 1.3452

    ....Profit target 1 at 1.3151
    ....Profit target 2 at 1.3051
    ....Move stop to Breakeven and let runners go for 1.2821 or more.

    ....Risk Approx. 30-50 pips
    ....Reward Approx 300-600 pips+

    ....Reasoning for trade...
    Unbelievable symmetry in the wave structure. Very high reward to risk, with high probability and many cfs in the area. I think there is a lot of dumb money chasing this move at this point and needs to be shaken out. This is a countertrend trade, eurusd is coming off a massive DB so reduce trade size. Long term I believe its going higher I just think we have a nice spot for a correction in the meantime. If it is able to break this zone with force I will be posting the reverse trade which will make back any temporary dip in equity due to this trade. Trade at your own risk, I am not responsible for any loss to your account.

    ....Here is the chart for visualization....
  2. Wow.. that is a bummer. Just missed entry, as there were other CF's just ahead of the main zone. For example, look at the purple line at 1.3348. Profit target 1 was hit... I expect a rally from here to test the main zone now. The trade is definately lower ranked now after already reacting to the area. It may be better to concentrade more on the add on.
  3. I cant believe I just missed this trade by 20 or so pips. I knew everyone was bearish on the US dollar and it coincided with an amazing confluence resistance zone. I thought with the news that it would get the extra pop higher before dropping this hard. It is now putting in a corrective wave and will make a final attempt at getting up to the zone. Here are the support zones where the bottom will be made. IE, where it is trading now, or a bit lower in the 1.3050-1.3030 area.

    Second profit target 30 pips below the market..... dang
  4. jan168


    I like to give it a try.
    could you name a few good Forex brokers?

    some need US 100000.00 to open an account.
  5. I would be careful setting up a forex account due to the scandals out there. Make sure you go with a reputable broker such as Oanda, or Gain. You could also just trade the Euro future, which is traded on the CME. I use this instead of the forex at times.
  6. Low of day=1.3051 1 pip off from calling a 200-300 pip rally, just watch. Profit 2 would have been hit as well..... it was 1.3051 heh
  7. Apart from not getting in at the low tick of the day I just put my position on before hitting the sack. I got the low tick at 1.3138 on the EC, euro future with 20 contracts, took some immediate profit and am letting the last 7 go for 100+pips. My tradestation chart verifies real orders placed from my account, as this is a real trade. I will also be looking to get back in with more units on any good pullback. I will update the trade when something comes up.

    My entry was also traded with a 5 pip stop.... now up over 50 pips from entry.... Gotta love it
  8. Here is an updated chart from the levels I drew back on Dec15. It hit the blue zone 1.3051 to the exact tick and exploded...unbelievable. The pink zone is local resistance and could possibly cause a stall in this rally. I ultimately think it is minimum going to retest the highs from Dec5th and move higher into the 1.3400 area. I hope some of you got a piece of this with me on the short side and then the long side.
  9. HOD so far is exactly to the pip of the level I gave you earlier in the day. 1.3215 exactly, constructed off of a daily chart. check the chart and look at the red line that makes up the pink zone
  10. Well we got the retest, minimum of 78.6 retracement from highs and then it got mutilated. I began this thread with the intent of calling a climatic top and the price behaviour has definately been exhibiting just that. We are at a critical zone now. It is now in the process of completing a wave c correction and rallying up to resistance or still completing an impulsive wave 3. The zones are displayed by the grids. If support is held here in the 1.2865-1.2837 area we most likely will rally up to the red grid find some initial resistance, pull back and then head up to retest the dec.5th highs again. We are hovering just above major support, I advise you take profits on your shorts here or on the next move down and wait to get back in if you wish to do so at higher prices.
    #10     Jan 11, 2007