The EURO

Alright then I suggest you call Thompson IFR and raise a stink. Apart from that, let's get back to talking about the Euro.

 

This could be a 2 year leap.
What is the expiration date of that put?

 

It's probably a stop loss on trading the underlying EUR from the long side. 8 figures in USD/EUR is not that much.

 

March 2006! Early in the month, too. That's why I'm vexed.

 

This is indeed weird.
This could be if someone knew FED will tighten to keep the dollar firm.

On the other hand though I think it is a bad strategy.

Further hikes would not force market yields up.
On the contrary - investors would realize - the market is being frozen by FED and a push in bonds would send yields deep into inversion.
This would obviously erase the current spread advantage to UK gilts.
In effect the dollar would sink more.

That's why I think it is not probable to reach that price range.

In my opinion further hikes will not support strong dollar.
This is due to a fact of poor economical performance in recent months.
I'd say raising the interest rate would trigger the opposite - the dollar would fall.
So it is very surprising to hear such news.

All the market factors favor further EUR strength.
Even the traders are cautious and scared.
It is a best sign of strength for strong upward EURO movement.

My last remark is that historically speaking the long term movements were ALWAYS following long consolidations.
It was always painful to change a trend of a currency.
So now I think, most of these dealers think - that if a dollar had 1 year of strength - then it has to follow that trend or it has to consolidate longer.

This could be the reason for such behavior as PUT purchase for a short period.
In my opinion someone is making a grieving mistake.

Whatever thinking is out there - we should follow the bigger players.
Asia is now a key turning point.
English men are maybe brave - but it is me making the money here - not them.

 

You sound an awful like energytraderus. Are you sure you're not the same person? Do we need to check ip addresses?

 

Ivan:

I'm sorry to disappoint you, but I'm straight.

 

Asia...I remember it was first one who down eur below 1.20
and now it's first one who breaks 1.22

 

Like you'd tell us if you weren't!

 

Interesting table on issuance. Read what you will from it...

Corporate Issuance By Currency, Proportion of Market Share
AUD GBP CAD EUR JPY CHF USD TOTAL US$ Mil
End "02 0.90% 3.9% 1.80% 32.2% 5.8% 1.67% 53.5% 1,930,460.0
End "03 1.05% 3.69% 2.07% 37.62% 5.49% 1.63% 48.5% 2,493,042.6
End "04 1.43% 5.24% 1.98% 41.50% 4.50% 1.35% 44.00% 2,595,139.0
End Q1 1.27% 4.14% 1.74% 50.24% 3.28% 2.09% 37.25% 840.308.0
End Q2 1.34% 4.14% 1.69% 49.10% 4.15% 2.10% 37.47% 1,560,485.4
End Q3 1.61% 4.50% 1.67% 45.48% 4.76% 2.15% 39.81% 2,031,498.4
End "05 1.64% 5.05% 1.90% 43.16% 4.77% 2.00% 41.47% 2,747,582.2
Jan 16 0.88% 1.11% 0.46% 42.88% 0.92% 3.90% 45.64% 190,991.4
Jan 24 1.06% 6.69% 1.16% 47.70% 1.90% 3.49% 38.00% 270,880.0