Discussion in 'Forex' started by Ivanovich, Jan 3, 2006.

  1. Current upmove in the Euro is looking a tad overdone. Going to short it right here at 1.2008.

    As usual, it appears the market is getting emotionally ahead of itself. Gotta love "momentum" funds.
  2. MrProfit



    I don't want to argue - but I feel it bit risky, man.
    You know my opinion on the subject.
    Window dressing has finished and time for business.

    I think we are experiencing first large move of capital OUTWARDS the USD zone.

    I would normally agree to a sharp correction after such a spike - however this is January... 3rd January. Too soon.
    I had a long out there and I closed it too soon, and now - I feel it better to wait than doing something unwise.
    You may be right to expect some stalling - but I don't think about any deep dip here.
    I expect a shallow move downwards if any. Sorry.
  3. sometimes the beg of the year can mark the top
    or bottom of that yrs move

    so if you are short the Euro
    keep a tight stop on !

    good luck
  4. A bit risky, because this rally could approach approximately 1.2200, with possible extension towards 1.2550.

    However, sometimes, when everyone thinks it will be risky to sell, it is actually the perfect time to sell. Still, keep a tight stop, just in case it'll explode upwards.

    Good luck!

  5. Ebo


    Watch out for this train, I don't think it's stopping at any station just yet! I got lucky 2X and almost gave about 1/2 back.
    You better average in and have a plan B. This is similar to the Year End 2004 move that never happened at the end of 2005.
  6. Choooo Choooo ..... Even if your right you will still be a loser because you are engaging in one of the worst habits a trader can get into.

    Cover and be patient my friend BUY the first real Pullback.
  7. LouDogg


    I am selling at 1.2069. Looking for it to drop somewhere around the low 1.2000 mark. I am looking to buy it back at that point.
  8. Ebo


    Good Luck!
    We filled the gap @ 1.2050, I can see 1.2200 easily being reached.

    There are plenty of PIPS to grab on the way!
  9. MrProfit


    It ain't over till it's over!!

    All these foreign folks buying the Treasury bonds in November and December are on the wrong side of the market now.
    We are 216 pips over 30 days average.
    That's almost 2% and visible perspective of more to come. Therefore:


    Technically speaking shorts on EUR are VERY risky.
    This move upwards is so strong - that everyone wonders what's happening...

    There should be a correction - but there is now way to tell when and where it starts.
  10. Apparently, Ivanovich is in the minority.

    By now, however, eurousd had reached 1.2070s. If my count is correct, we're at the third leg of a large correction. The first one (1.1639-1.2026) was 387 pips in length. The second leg ended at 1.1776, and the third one started there. If this one is to be equal with the first, it should end somewhere around 1.2163. There are two prior tops at 2201 & 2171, so this should put more emphasis on the 2163-2201 area.

    If the third leg correction extends its length to 1.618x the first, it would end at 1.2402. This is also the 38.2% retracement of the entire fall from 1.3668-1.1639. Interesting coincidence, eh?

    #10     Jan 3, 2006