The Ethan Allen Leading Indicator

Discussion in 'Trading' started by ByLoSellHi, Apr 4, 2007.

  1. [​IMG]

    Intriguing. I've been looking for an indicator just like this. Not just any household goods manufacturer, but a furniture maker, and a 'Coach-like' (upper-middle spectrum) one at that.


    *Full disclosure. I have nothing to do with this blog, stumbled across it when researching Ethan Allen, and wouldn't have the technical skills or patience to maintain a 'blog' if I was bitten in the ass by a rabid Geek Squad member.

    http://theflyonthewallblog.blogspot.com/2007/03/through-flys-eyes-ethan-allen.html

    [​IMG]

    Another Reliable Data Point Points To Economic Slowdown

    Following our blog on the continued deterioration in the leading indicators for the economy, Ethan Allen (ETH), a very good indicator of economic activity, last night reduced its EPS estimate for this current quarter to 53c-56c, well below the expected 59c consensus.

    Ethan Allen is one of the few companies that have positioned themselves to survive and possibly thrive when the Fed decides to fuel up the economy again. Management honesty in the way they evaluate their own performance translates into honestly on how they communicate to investors. Therefore, a good source for what is going on in the economy.

    The furniture maker began warning of a slowdown very close to when the housing industry rolled over. It appeared the economy was moving along fine, but once again Ethan proved to be a good and correct data point on housing and subsequently the economy.

    It is time to start using Ethan Allen as the indicator as to when the economy will bottom. If the stock does little to the downside today, it is most likely a sign the selling is done and the Fed will move to lower rates.
     
  2. [​IMG]


    __________________
    Please, I'm not a daytrader, I'm an "Intraday Liquidity Provider" :p

    1-888-TRADEUP
     
  3. I doubt ethan allen is an indicator anything but ethan allen. if you look at the chart for example it missed the entire 06 summer-winter rally. If you had used the stock an indicator of future trading activity you would have lost money.
     
  4. blast19

    blast19

    I love how "lost money" and "not made money" are the same to your little squirrelish brain. :D Good job Veruca!

    p.s. Don't tell me by lose money you meant by going short...you don't think like that.
     
  5. How about running some statistical analysis to see if it has some predictive power?

    ThetaSpec


     
  6. It could also just mean people are buying other styles of furniture not sold at EA.
     
  7. <IMG SRC=http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/e/eth>

    Predicts what?
     
  8. Looks bullish to me.
     
  9. Looks bullshit to me???

    I agree...

    ????

    Sorry, I suck at anagrams...
     

  10. Yes. An anagram has to contain the exact same letters.

    There is no 't' in 'bullish.'

    An anagram (Greek ana- = "back" or "again", and graphein = "to write") is a type of word play, the result of rearranging the letters of a word or phrase to produce other words, using all the original letters exactly once.


    But that is okay. You conveyed your sentiment. That is the main thing.
     
    #10     Apr 5, 2007