Following the truly remarkable price reading accuracy of my previous journal, (and if you beleive that, you'd believe anything) and attempting to be more or less serious if i can manage it, i give you, the Eod-umber journal. Yeah, yeah, what did you think it was going to be called............... Usual disclaimer, same as the last- Eod price analysis, mostly commodities, some fx, occasional stocks (gasp, shock, horror) , momentum plays, divergence position plays, tech patterns, range plays, anything at all really, usual stuff. Disaclaimer- trading, or investing, involves 100% risk of losing your money, capital, pets, house, firstborn child, your relationship, house, car, girlfriend, dignity, pride, self esteem, your running shoes, your socks, the shirt off your back, your computer mousepad, modem, your cd collection, television, furniture, stationary, sunglasses, wardrobe, sanity, if you have spare limbs, well their gone too, as are spare organs, kidneys, other bits you really didnt need to, like a car or a bycicle-consider yourself warned
Just recording some "lost" trade ideas from elsewhere, from nov 19, (id forgotten about them) was very keen to buy eurostoxx @daily highs , (ESTXXXX) and that i was looking to short gold around the price levels at the time, was 2-3 days before the actual turn i think, both good ideas. The ballpark correlations held up well there. Another note, on my comments of 57.50 crude looking like a value eod buy turned out to be as close as one could get, a little too cheap and nasty in fact, as january never hit that level, but i notice the electronic contract (on the charts i have QMXXXX) seemed to. The lesson, is it pays too be aggressive, and not to be too thrifty on your price levels . Given its nearly christmas, recapping the year, i have to say im very impressed with the quality of my trade ideas, risk /reward overall has been, near as i can tell, spectacular. Ive noticed though, that my *actual *understanding of the markets is decreasing, while instincts and price bar reading seem to be, in fact, improving, something i didnt expect. Heres hoping i can do something in 2007 to capitalise on this obscure skillset.
Copy of usd projection, based entirely on free association and long term spatial zone analysis. "11-18-06 04:18 PM Lower mostly (in monthly terms) until march 23rd 07, then uppish to around august the 8th, then solid spiral down until april 08." And they say prognostications are useless......
Well, prognostications are as usefull as you want them to be. If a "prediction" results in even one solid move based on it, then it has served its purpose. Interesting developments, since a charting hiatus at xmas and since, ive certainly been caught napping in a couple of regards-based on what i suspected at xmas, the respective "cycles" of the markets i follow have come in a little faster than i expected, and overall USD strength i wasnt anticipating to this extent, at all, i really thought it would drop much further-and still beleive it will, timing is everything as usual. The grains havent , across the board, borne up too well to neverending bullish ethanol hype, but product specifically, i suspect this year most will drop back into approximate historical ranges for the majority of the time. Corn & soy just arent great ethanol fuels, this reality will hit home at some point, while i hate to use the word bubble, well.......ah crap, i used the word bubble. Bubblebubblebubblebubblebubble. It loses its significance with repitition.
Curiouser, and curiouser. Only a year or a few ago, statistically energies would be a solid hold over weekends. Have been, for the most part since, but the odd news correlation to crude, visa vie brits kindnapped in the gulf, just happened to acheive certain price targets, dont you think? http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.a...&vol=Y&evnt=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix= Or.....did this move have nothing at all to do with it, and it was just a huge coincidence it occured over a weekend. Either way, a betting man would have acheived astonishing gains for holding crude fut's long, over the dreaded weekend, for a long time now. Not rocket science either, but i would like to say a quick word to the surfmeister, who made similiar crude calls to myself some time back, the quite specific tops, and bottom as it happened, and , apperently has found luuuurve on ET. Despite his penchant for pastel colours, and being a dead ringer for Tom Arnold. You know, the hawaiin shirt wearing tom arnold, in "True lies", thats the image i have, when i see the marketsurfer handle. Nice work, surf.
Ftse, dax, SMI looking ripe for a eod selloff from these levels. S&P, dow, not so much, strangely- a question of whos leading who. As usual in a correlated basket, go for most divergent/extended first, figure out the economics later. But im sure this is old news to the zillion top callin folk around, calling a top every day, or everyother day. Thought it was worth a comment.
Shake and bake, standard abc down, followed by uppish movement. Lots of it-that was the , uh, "buy" i mentioned, previously. Gold, that is. Well called, me! http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.a...&vol=Y&evnt=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix= "Well thanks, haven' t been doing a lot of charting lately, must get back into it, thanks for your support. I would anticipate significant chop for most markets, for a week or three, particularly stocks-those daytraders really dont know what their doing, commodities are so much easier to read, imho." Sycophant acolyte;"wow, thats amazing market insight, how do you do it, Mr Acronym?" Mr Acronym; "Get me a scotch and dry, and shut the hell up , fool. And buff my shoes."
Liking the look of wheat for the coming week.......looks toppy, way toppy. Kinda peaky, overdone......likely some chop around the top though, doubtfull a striaghtforward slide would eventuate, still some strong momentum there. Silver also dropping back to an important price range, could be tricky to pick a direction- but i dont think it will hang around these levels very long, either way. Best guess, up, up and away for silver/gold.
Looking closer at silver, a straddle/strangle, for a few week hold doesnt sound completely insane, at this point.