The End of India Story

Discussion in 'Economics' started by trader#21, Dec 16, 2011.

  1. Frustrated executives while away time in five-star hotels waiting for deals that never come, and civil servants play video games in their offices - growing signs of the reform limbo and crisis of confidence behind India's economic malaise.

    Dr. Swamy Subramaniam, who is single-handedly fighting the ruling government involved in scam of around $40 billion, was recently sacked by Harvard for anti-islamic views:

    Robert, member of the Indian Royal family (which is Nehru-Vadra-Jehangir-Maino-Gandhi), is said to have become fastest billionaire (in USD):
    -After Robert got married with Priyanka Gandhi, Robert's father disowned him and later committed suicide under mysterious circumstances, his brother found dead in his delhi residence and his sister found dead in mysterious car accident.
    -He has 20% ownership in Unitech, Biggest beneficiary ownership of 2G Scam. Because of Robert's involvement in this scam, there are concerns that investigation would never reach decisive conclusion
    -He owns, Artex, a small company specialising in jewellery and handicraft exports (accused of smuggling ancient artifacts to Italy)
    -Sky Light Hospitality Pvt Ltd (owned by Vadra and his mother Maureen Vadra), is a partner in a firm that owns Hilton Garden Inn in the South Delhi business district Saket. As on March 2009, Sky Light Hospitality had received unsecured loans amounting to 5 mil USD from DLF Ltd.
    -Blue Breeze Trading Pvt Ltd (aircraft chartering), North India IT Parks Pvt Ltd, Real Earth Estates Pvt Ltd, Sky Light Realty Pvt Ltd. are the companies in which he has majority stake.
    - Indian Government has given him special privilege, which entails him to walk in and out of any airports without being subject to any security check. Only the President of India , Prime Minister, or those who served as Prez or PM in past are given this honor.

    The Indian Royal family's links with Italian mafia are over Wikipedia too
  2. What does the crisis actually imply?

    So far work was outsourced to Indian engineers/MBAs at 300$ per month. With the looming crisis in India, as the Indian sensex hits 25 month low, the newer generation passing out of college will lower expectation to around 200$ for a job.
  3. gmst


    Sorry, but your post doesn't make sense. Subject of your thread is about the end of Indian growth story, whereas the content of the post is about 'implied corruption' by one man, who you claim is close to Indian government. First of all, you don't establish the corruption, now even if that one man or a few others with him are corrupt, how can you draw any inference about the end of Indian growth story. Its like saying since one big guy in US is corrupt, it means US loses its supremacy over the world.

    Imo, misleading topic and absolutely pathetic analysis.

    P.S. On another hand, if you can establish with objective facts about why Indian grown story is about to end, then it will really serve a purpose here on ET, as we all can profit by being short India. Just checked that Indian rupee is at its historic low and Sensex is also low, but it doesn't mean end of Indian story. Sorry, too naive an analysis. Please go and look back at major corrections in US and other emerging markets - market corrections of 30-40-50% even 60% in emerging markets every 5-10 years is common, nothing to get too excited about, probably if anything its a good time to buy - especially true for BRIC countries.
  4. Go through the Reuters story linked, lots of facts. I mentioned about the India's royal family because Reuters or other media will not directly post the facts to avoid pessimism.

    A lot of cabinet ministers are being chargesheeted, and many influential have been put in jail. Last two days of Indian parliament adjourned because opposition political party demands dismissal of home minister, who is involved in multiple scams.

    Political instability is the greatest threat in a developing country. India is in utter chaos, you can search for other stories related to India politics in Reuters.
  5. gmst


    No again you are not getting it. Lets say i agree with you that whole damn government is corrupt, but then its a democracy. They will change the government in next elections, doesn't mean it changes the underlying reasons for being a secular bull on India. It has a growing population - huge market, Indians speak good English, technically they are a smart bunch, and most importantly its a democracy with freedom of speech - not like China. A govt being corrupt and a stock market being down, doesn't mean country's growth story is finished.

    Please read about American history of early 1900s how corrupt were American businessmen and how fcuked up was Stock market - read livermore's account of practices prevalent then in stock market. What I am saying is any country can suffer from corruption etc, its not a good enough reason to sell that country's market or even say that growth story is over. You need more economic reasons and structural changes to make such a bold claim.
  6. That's why I wrote about the royal family aka dynasty of India... it is not exactly a democracy.

    One of the most influential media house in India, NDTV, has been alleged (pending case in Delhi court I think) to received around $400 mil bribe to spread propaganda about ruling government. The media there is very crooked, and 97% of the population is not acquainted with internet media, which is the only 'free' channel accessible in India.

    I do not mean 'sell', it's end of optimism for maybe 5-6 years (unlike the perception most people have about BRIC ETFs).
  7. gmst


    Alright it seems you know quite a bit of nitty gritty details about India. Are you an Indian - guess !! :)

    Anyways, I like you last line, that you don't mean for us to 'sell' it. I consider India a long term secular bull market, and 3-4 years correction are normal. Looking over the next 50 years compounded, I think India ETF will yield much better results than S&P500 index investing.

    Btw there is nothing new about news houses having a political inclination, either by design or by being paid to write. Happens almost everywhere, so this is not a good enough reason to say country is shit.

    Btw, curious this is not economic - I know Indians have elections but still it seems that the royal family there seems to win it again and again. Why do Indians elect them in every election ? Are elections also crooked ?
  8. AK100


    It's hard to any country to succeed without proper infrastructure, and if anyone has been to India it's not even 3rd world, try about 7th. It's all about foundations, build a house on straw and it might look good but it won't last.

    Sure, there might be a lot of people but it's hard to think of them as a economic superpower when they only have 1 proper freeway in the whole country, and that of course has the obligatory chickens and cows on the verges and in the central reservation.

    All the people that tell you India is the way forward are either brainwashed Indians (who seem to think their country is the best in the world) or marketers who want to sell you an Indian fund etc.

    As for Indians telling you how great their country is, just remind them what Ghandi said -

    "You can measure how great a country is by how it looks after its poor"

    And boy, do they have a sickening problem with their poor. Go there and you'll find it offensive.

    PS. As for there being lots of 'clever' Indians, sure there are masses of them, my accountant for one who's excellent. But 90% of them live outside of India, in effect they saw the light.
  9. India follows the "Sheep Herd" mentality.
    The whole country's economy is based on people getting into "Profitable" domains mostly following the success of a pioneer in the field.
    The most recent example of this ideology is the "Business Process Outsourcing" industry.
    New BPO units are propping up here and there at a dime a dozen leading to a quality deterioration in the final deliverable.
    This process will continue till a saturation level is reached and then they will wait till another "Killer" domain picks up momentum.
    Till then India will be in a so called "Calm Period" where nothing great and major takes place.
    #10     Dec 17, 2011