Does anyone plan their trading style around the end of the day run, that often occurs in the opposite direction on the ES. (or others). I do not have any historical numbers on this, but it seems to be there, more often than not.
The end of the day reversal can be predicted quite accurately according to the developments during the day. Keep a close watch on it and you will see... When I'll finish some of my current research I might share it here.
Watch the market over noon. That will give you some of the best clues about the action into the close. Brandon
say the day was a down day.. is teh last hour reversal due to the buying back of intraday short postions?
Jeff Cooper calls it an "undercut". Whatever the pattern is, it manifests as a double bottom, prices look like they're about to break, and then the reversal within the last hour occurs. It's happened the last 3 days. Macro hedge funds getting flat at the end of the day have really magnified the effect.
As far as I've been watching it, a double bottom is not necessary for this reversal to happen. A double bottom close to the last hour of the day is always a reasonable possibility on a consistant down day, only in the sense of testing how far this day can continue going down.
In addition to opening plays, the last hour - or even last 30 minutes - is useful. Depending upon the dynamics of the market day certain sets of issues often have nice plays within this timeframe. Just make sure you have a well defined trade strategy / exit point if the postion is not meant to be held unhedged after the close........