THE END GAME 2012/13 - Ex Goldman Star - Trading Will Be Banned

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by THE-BEAKER, Jun 1, 2012.

  1. I don't think they need "printing presses" anymore, they're not going to hand out cash. With debit cards and phone-to-phone electronic transfers et al, all they need to do is add a 0 or 00 to all accounts. Or a software patch quickly updates all accounts to the new currency, no need to try collecting all the old currency notes.

    I hope they call the new currency "credits", that's what they used in Star Wars.
     
    #31     Jun 1, 2012
  2. plyka

    plyka

    I actually read a book on LTCM but i've almost forgotten all of it by now, lol. I don't believe they were in arbitrage, from memory they had a number of different strategies, some of them extremely complex. They were overly levereged, things turned for the worse, and there they went.

    In pure arbitrage, there can only be counter-party risk. Unless a clearing house goes bankrupt, i'm not sure how they can lose. As an example, let's say that the SPX futures for whatever reason are trading at a slightly more expensive price than the actual stocks in the index. This can happen for whatever reason, and usually only for a very short amount of time (due to arbitrage). Someone shorts the futures and buys the stocks/index in proportion. If we assume that we have factored out other things like interest/dividends/carry/whatever when they make the trade and there was a descrepancy, then they have already locked in their profits. It's similar to buying the ES and then selling the ES, there is no more risk to you, you are flat. If you buy and then sell the ES, this doesn't add to the total notional value of derivatives because we'll assume that the open interest in the ES first increased by 1 and then fell by 1. However, if you buy the ES and sell the actual stocks/index, this adds to the total notional value despite their being no real difference.
     
    #32     Jun 2, 2012
  3. So they ban shorting of futures but longs are still allowed? Yeah, right... :D

    It's those little details that make you wonder how well all those 'experts' know their stuff...
     
    #33     Jun 2, 2012
  4. +50
     
    #34     Jun 2, 2012
  5. There are so few "real" arbs that do not include being in a position to capture spread the term has become almost meaningless. What most arbs accomplish is to put the equation so heavily in your favor the likelihood of making money is astronomical but the chance of loss, under certain circumstances, still exists.

     
    #35     Jun 2, 2012
  6. Must be close to a bottom when you see lunacy like this being quoted. Climax of it all is gonna have to be after the Greeks vote on the 17th, after that everyone in Europe is gonna have to decide to either sh*t or get off the pot, finally.
    Then everyone hits the beaches, new bull in the fall.
     
    #36     Jun 2, 2012
  7. Watch the 200 day. Everything else is noise.
     
    #37     Jun 2, 2012
  8. Yeah as soon as I read "ban short futures" I dismissed this guy as a lunatic, although apparently he has some cred on the street.

    Whatever the case it's stupid to obsess over armageddon bets that will never get paid if they come to fruition. If we get to the point where the NY Fed is burning with mobs surrounding it, you can wipe your ass with your long treasuries at 1% or 500 SPX puts.

    That's not to say armageddon isn't coming, but if this guy is implying you can find some magic asset to hide in a rathole while the world burns, good luck.
     
    #38     Jun 2, 2012
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    #39     Jun 2, 2012
  10. ================
    Good points, a 50 day ma can chop & slop & stop an investor out

    :D I still like it, not that it takes the place of a 200day or 10 yr.:cool:

    Also while GLD, gold is uptrending nicely;
    a ban on short futures or puts seems very,very un likely .But with the war on terror, long oil/gasoline specs could & should be banned.Shorting or short covering sounds fine...

    So the GS star coukld be partly right-long oil/gasoline spec-trading should be banned, not just in an election year.:cool:
     
    #40     Jun 4, 2012