It's rather odd but your last quote reminds me of: Shrink: "You're in denial!!!" Client: "Ummm... no, I don't think so..." Shrink: "I told you so!!! " For some reason, this is getting philosophical rather than about system trading, math, or statistics... so rossmedia... can you go back a few posts and respond to some of us. PS. I traded with in Andover-Santa Monica before you were studying for your Series tests (2003, according to your post)... I know a few guys from WorldCo.-SM ...
Mike, I appreciate your thoughts but if you dig a bit deeper I believe you will find the following. "Pure" connotes without a giver. One cannot truly accomplish purity unless one is the first to exist in that medium. There is no pure human being because none of us are pure parents. Remember purity is without blemish. Now, did the laws of math exist because we discovered them and if so could there be higher laws yet undiscovered that will trump or atleast dilute the current? The answer is yes, not to be philosophical but truth does not need believers. Gravity, circular nature of the earth etc...did not come into existence when we agreed, it has always been. On the other hand 2+2 equals four not because the universe says so but because those are the components of counting man created for our organized usage. Does 2 + 2 equal Vier, or Žl? Well, unless you know additional languages your wouldn't know. In other words we define everything relative to our world. If you traveled to another world and they said 2+2 is 7 and they existed 5 million years before earth who would be right. As you can see, emotions are everywhere.
Give us an example of how one can rely on, or incorporate, their emotions into a successful trading strategy.. Taking market "emotions" into account, is benefitial, ie; markets tend to oversell and overbuy, But, how can an individual apply their emotions?? I suppose increasing acceleration/decceleration of prices may indicate some "emotions" in the markets., but I find the topic of "The Emotions of Math", somewhat ridiculous. Perhaps, quantifying the number of suicides or cases manic-depression per captia is what you are refering to.
Yes, I agree it sounds ridiculous, but unfortunately its very accurate. I've created my own trading system, it populates a chart not with lines or candlesticks representing prices but rather emotional extremes...its is very interesting and I'm finding success with it. It in no way is perfected but it is leading me down and larger, much more interesting path. The charts seems to lead traditional TA charts by many seconds and sometimes minutes. -Ross
Those fat tails you see are some poor mother fuckers who are runnýng for their lives tryýng to get the fuck out.
Ok, I see ... you're simply relying on deviations from the mean. I agree, these are typically emotional events, and they typically reverse. But, you are not using YOUR emotions, YOUR emotions can only hurt. So, really the advice to trade "emotion-free" is still valid. That IS your edge, you trade during "emotional events" with no emotion.